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Typhoon Tip

Active mid December with multiple event potential

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Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Hour 60-63 on the NAM Kuchera - 9" in 3 hours for me.. 

This setup reminds me somewhat of February 83.  Northern VA into Eastern PA jackpotted, CT had 20", then it kinda petered out as it reached Boston.

I wasn’t here but wasn’t BOS supposed to be whiffed and got 13 inches?

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23 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Winter storm watch is up for many.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
345 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

CTZ002>004-MAZ017>023-RIZ001>008-150445-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.201217T0000Z-201217T1800Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River,
New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown,
Vineyard Haven, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry,
West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
345 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 or
  more inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph along
  the immediate coast.

* WHERE...Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern
  Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow developing by Wednesday evening and
  becoming heavy at times Wednesday night into early Thursday.
  Snow tapering off by Thursday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

BOX sniffing glue by not having wsw to at least the pike 

  • Weenie 1

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Quote


DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PRECIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR N CT, RI AND SE MA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST IN   
ACCUMS OF 6-12 INCHES. HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS WED NIGHT LINGERING INTO
THU MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THU AFTERNOON.
LESS CONFIDENCE FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT WHICH MAY LIE ACROSS SNE. THESE ARE ALWAYS AREAS OF HIGH
BUST POTENTIAL IF STORM TRACK SHIFTS N OR S. CURRENTLY HAVE ACCUMS
OF 4-8" NORTH OF THE PIKE. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, WATCHES WILL BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD EARLY TUE MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING FOR A MIX OR EVEN CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN FOR NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE IMPORTANT POINT TO REITERATE IS WE ARE STILL 60-72H FROM THE
EVENT BASED FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE. FURTHER CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE.   

 

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wasn’t here but wasn’t BOS supposed to be whiffed and got 13 inches?

Even Fairfield County....Accuweather, in their final report of the day on 1010 WINS said the snow would hit a brick wall around the Tappan Zee!

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clearly not a good series of runs for cne nne crowd.  my hope is reduced as are my expectations.  I have to remind myself it is monday afternoon and the storm starts wed late afternoon down in sne.  still a ways to go.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wasn’t here but wasn’t BOS supposed to be whiffed and got 13 inches?

I remember this storm very well. Elliot Abrams was on WHDH radio insisting the storm would still miss Boston even at its height. Woke up in the morning to 14/15 inches in Dedham. Initial forecast was a trace to an inch or too. Outside of my college days, biggest bust I ever saw 

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So in my mind something like a Reggie track is sort of what I envisioned when I look at the H5 stuff. A lot of the guidance shunted it east. I know why it did....but that was always sort of what I envisioned. Reggie caveats apply naturally this far out. That’s sort of a balance between lows feeding off of PVA and baroclinic processes in my mind, but I’m also not running complex atmospheric dynamics equations in my mind. :lol: 

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When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too. 

1792725434_snowmapsocial.png.a69f3615d74d0f06eacb571fda3dcaeb.png

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too. 

1792725434_snowmapsocial.png.a69f3615d74d0f06eacb571fda3dcaeb.png

Damn, 5" on the low end? Twist the knife!

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too. 

1792725434_snowmapsocial.png.a69f3615d74d0f06eacb571fda3dcaeb.png

Nice. Pretty much what I would do if I new how to virtually paint.

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Just now, Hoth said:

Damn, 5" on the low end? Twist the knife!

also trying to account for subsidence b/c there will definitely be subsidence zone in the vicinity of where the CCB tracks. Once I'm more confident in CCB and where that traverses this will be altered a bit.

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19 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

For most of BOX's CWA start time is still a bit beyond 48 hours, hence no watches yet

There's actually no time limit anymore on the watches... just 50% confidence of reaching the criteria. 

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