Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[HeadInTheClouds]

Updated 00z scorecard IMBY:

Nam 24

RGEM 15

ICON 13

CMC 18 

 

 

 

GFS 1

[NJwx85]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Thats CMC factoring in ratios?

That’s 96 type numbers there.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I'm ok with that.  I just think its way too generous up by Albany.  The gradient should tighten up a lot on the models in the next couple of days.  If I'm wrong,  so be it. 

Sorry I stopped looking after I saw the 37.2” at MMU. Talk about pitching a tent.

[OrangeCTWX]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

I would sign up for no more storms this entire winter to see 3 feet of snow in my yard....no questions asked! 

38 inches in 12 hours with gusts in the 40s. LOL call me skeptical of that, but it is nice to look at.

[sferic]

Just curious, we get to see the OOZ Euro at 12:30 to 1:30 when do Mets or the NWS see them ?

[HVSnowLover]

The CMC is a HECS for NNJ and the LHV. 

RGEM is a HECS for NYC Metro

Getting even more wild.  

[Rjay]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

The CMC is a HECS for NNJ and the LHV. 

RGEM is a HECS for NYC Metro

Getting even more wild.  

Gfs is still picking it's nose. 

[Rjay]

I remembered this from ~ 2010.  I got the model wrong.  

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

38 inches in 12 hours with gusts in the 40s. LOL call me skeptical of that, but it is nice to look at.

Yea a 10-12 hour storm it's had to see producing these kinds of totals honestly but the rates on the CMC were extreme in these areas.

[jdj5211]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Updated 00z scorecard IMBY:

Nam 24

RGEM 15

ICON 13

CMC 18 

 

 

 

GFS 1

I like this game...using Kuchera numbers...

CMC      32

RGEM    24

ICON     18

NAM      15

GFS        7

 

Pretty good night!  Just waiting to see where the King falls in line!

[TriPol]

They're probably going to shut down above ground subway and bus service.

[wizard021]

Ukmet is less amped than the cmc , closer to the gfs but not the same. Would bring in more snow for our area.

[David-LI]

GFS being GFS

[wizard021]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

GFS being GFS

strong support from gefs. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, wizard021 said:

strong support from gefs. 

It always does. 

[TriPol]

Around what time does the storm start on Weds?

[Heisy]

15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea a 10-12 hour storm it's had to see producing these kinds of totals honestly but the rates on the CMC were extreme in these areas.

Yeah but you have to be realistic too. This isn’t a monster closed off ULL. I think the Max well see from whoever jackpots is like 24” but I could be wrong

[NJsnow89]

11 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Ukmet is less amped than the cmc , closer to the gfs but not the same. Would bring in more snow for our area.

You have maps?

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Around what time does the storm start on Weds?

It depends on which model you are looking at but right now I would say mid afternoon in NYC. 

[Gravity Wave]

If I had to pick a way this goes wrong for the City I think it would be in the form of the GFS (heavy precip going south of the area) rather than the NAM (mixing issues and deform band well to the north), but I think we're in an excellent spot right now.

[HeadInTheClouds]

14 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Ukmet is less amped than the cmc , closer to the gfs but not the same. Would bring in more snow for our area.

Post it if you can. The 12z gave Albany 26 inches so I have a hard time believing it looks like GFS. 

[Irish]

10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Around what time does the storm start on Weds?

I've read that it's pushing to a later start. 

[Albedoman]

just for shitz and giggles for the snow weenies, this what the Lehigh Valley/ Allentown  is showing. Of course I take but C"mon man- how unbelievable is a 41 inch snowfall? I would be happy with half of that. One thing, in every single model run for all the models for three days now, the LV has been close or near jackpot. That in itself is unbelievable.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Post it if you can. The 12z gave Albany 26 inches so I have a hard time believing it looks like GFS. 

Hi res maps aren't out yet

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Hi res maps aren't out yet

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Rjay said:

 

Yeah that looks like another interior crush job. 

[Rjay]

For the weens

[Rjay]

I went from 0.2" to 0.4".   woot!

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yeah that looks like another interior crush job. 

Yeah similar track maybe a hair south?

[NJsnow89]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

For the weens

Nice! First time ever I see my town name (Piscataway) on a snow map lol.