dave0176 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 How’s it look for coastal middlesex county, I’m on the east side of Port Reading. Usually with these types of setups with the runs ticking NW we almost always never get much snow and usually turns to all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, wdrag said: Absolutely! The questions continue going forward, will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution. Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm. Nope. Not gonna happen. Could it be possible? It's 2020. I will leave it right there. I am much more worried about a whiff up here near 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Nope. Not gonna happen. Could it be possible? It's 2020. I will leave it right there. I am much more worried about a whiff up here near 84. My fear as well, still being maintained into this morning. 0z runs tonight will be key for us. Even if a relative whiff happens I'd think we'd still be good for 3-6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm. Doubt it. Could mix or change for a time but enough cold air around for at least a decent snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM solution doesn’t make a whole lot of sense nor does many of the Euro members solely because systems evolving in such a pattern like this have never gone snow-mix or rain-snow at the coast. At least nothing that I can remember in the last 30-40 years. This is why more likely than not either this is going to split the difference between the EPS/NAM and GEFS idea or it’s going to continue ticking further NW I was thinking March 2017 where we saw snow to heavy sleet and back to snow just west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Doubt it. Could mix or change for a time but enough cold air around for at least a decent snow event Hopefully that's the case. I think it'll be very difficult to warm the surface unless the storm is on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm. Actually Forky already flipped and said he feels that suppression is the bigger risk now and this will stay S and E. I guess if he says both one will be right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 When was the last storm the entire forum from mid Hudson Valley to Eastern LI to Jersey and E PA all received a foot plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm. He didn't forecast a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, greenmtnwx said: Actually Forky already flipped and said he feels that suppression is the bigger risk now and this will stay S and E. I guess if he says both one will be right lol. Forky never forecasted a rain storm. He trolled and wished it would rain though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: When was the last storm the entire forum from mid Hudson Valley to Eastern LI to Jersey and E PA all received a foot plus? I'm going to guess....sometime between 2014 and 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s silly to put any stock in the nam until it’s 24-36 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I wish we could all agree that “it’s the NAM at long distance” is no longer a valid argument. It has been reliable long range before during storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: It’s silly to put any stock in the nam until it’s 24-36 hours out Its not alone though. Can't be ignored since it matches the euro well Anyway let's see if the gfs/cmc hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: 84 hours I don't like where things are going. That shortwave is no joke and models appear to be backing off the confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, David-LI said: I wish we could all agree that “it’s the NAM at long distance” is no longer a valid argument. It has been reliable long range before during storms. It actually is and one of the reasons they are scraping the model next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Rgem is a huge rainstorm right now. For who? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Tatamy said: For who? Those ptype maps really make no sense. Chances are you would have sleet near NYC in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Those ptype maps really make no sense. Chances are you would have sleet near NYC in that setup That's sleet or rain. You ain't seeing snow with a low that far inland. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: He didn't forecast a rain storm. No way in hell with this setup in the North Atlantic and SE Canada does this become a rainstorm. I don’t care what the RGEM is showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Its time to start thinking before you post, everyone. Discuss the models and impacts here...and if discussing a specific model, please post it as well. Leave the gut calls, personal nonsense, and the psychiatry in the banter thread. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Its not alone though. Can't be ignored since it matches the euro well Anyway let's see if the gfs/cmc hold serve Yes it can, it’s the 84 hour nam !!! Cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Its time to start thinking before you post, everyone. Discuss the models and impacts here...and if discussing a specific model, please post it as well. Leave the gut calls, personal nonsense, and the psychiatry in the banter thread. That includes saying a model is wrong in its output without an explanation of why said model is showing something that “cant happen”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No way in hell with this setup in the North Atlantic and SE Canada does this become a rainstorm. I don’t care what the RGEM is showing The RGEM is likely too far west but that tells us the GGEM will probably be close to the same idea. The RGEM usually at this range portends what the GGEM will show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs is stronger with the confluence through hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's sleet or rain. You ain't seeing snow with a low that far inland. Ever heard of a front end thump? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It actually is and one of the reasons they are scraping the model next year What does this mean? They’re upgrading it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Ever heard of a front end thump? Hopefully it pulls east and stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: What does this mean? They’re upgrading it? No. They’re doing away with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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