bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Like I have always said if we are below normal someone else is above normal. In the end there isn’t a normal if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 11 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: Like I have always said if we are below normal someone else is above normal. In the end there isn’t a normal if you ask me. Long Island used to get normal snowfall before the mid1990s. But since then, we switched to all or nothing mode. More frequent very high or very low snowfall winters. Fewer closer to the mid range. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 7:47 PM, wishcast_hater said: Like I have always said if we are below normal someone else is above normal. In the end there isn’t a normal if you ask me. Sea effect snowfall is increasing for the same reason that lake effect snows are on a rapid increase....because of warmer waters fueling more moisture to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Sea effect snowfall is increasing for the same reason that lake effect snows are on a rapid increase....because of warmer waters fueling more moisture to precipitate. The difference is they have real altitude whereas we have a few hundred feet of relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: The difference is they have real altitude whereas we have a few hundred feet of relief. Good morning, L B/G L. Considering that the above sea level altitude of the postage stamp might equate to a bump in the road; I will definitely start stocking survival supplies when the five boroughs start to get buried by ocean effect snows. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 20 hours ago, rclab said: Good morning, L B/G L. Considering that the above sea level altitude of the postage stamp might equate to a bump in the road; I will definitely start stocking survival supplies when the five boroughs start to get buried by ocean effect snows. As always .... if you want to start increasing snowfall here just build an artificial lake N or NW of our area and relocate those pesky neighbors who live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 We finally have blocking and nothing to show for it. Unbelieveable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: We finally have blocking and nothing to show for it. Unbelieveable. Anthony, a serious question for you. would you rather have current conditions—blocking but suppression? or Storms at 38 degrees? This winter has demonstrated or reminded us just how many things have to go right (or wrong) for it to snow near the coast. The last 20 years have been unbelievable, rather anomalous, there is a reason our long term averages are around 30 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 regression to the mean. We've had a hell of a run, but the last few years show us that every year won't have 40-60 inches of snow here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: regression to the mean. We've had a hell of a run, but the last few years show us that every year won't have 40-60 inches of snow here... People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: if you want to start increasing snowfall here just build an artificial lake N or NW of our area and relocate those pesky neighbors who live there. I believe if it increased the frozen ratio the N/NW neighbors would be on board and end up owning fine, in land sea shore, home sites. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 9 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Truth But if it's all you know you get used to it. Also 1979-1993 had a historic snow drought that had never happened before. By the way climate change was integral in the 2002/03-2015/16 winter patterns too, if you look at how warming SST drive quickly intensifying storms. We've seen an increase in big rainfall events as well as big snowfall events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 10 hours ago, Brian5671 said: regression to the mean. We've had a hell of a run, but the last few years show us that every year won't have 40-60 inches of snow here... But statistics shows us that there is such a large variation there is no such thing as a "mean" Average snowfall years are actually the rarest. I'm actually hoping we are on the final downward spiral that gets the average person to finally recognize the dangers of climate change. A sad commentary is that awful things (like the pandemic) need to happen to get the average person to actually care. So if we dont get big snowfalls anymore, that may be a good thing in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 13 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Anthony, a serious question for you. would you rather have current conditions—blocking but suppression? or Storms at 38 degrees? This winter has demonstrated or reminded us just how many things have to go right (or wrong) for it to snow near the coast. The last 20 years have been unbelievable, rather anomalous, there is a reason our long term averages are around 30 inches of snow. I'd rather have 60s and sunny right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I know people are getting antsy but the upcoming pattern really isn't that bad. It might not work out for us but we def have a shot at more interesting wx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: I know people are getting antsy but the upcoming pattern really isn't that bad. It might not work out for us but we def have a shot at more interesting wx. well tonight is pretty interesting lol. we had weather like this about a week or two after the Jan 1996 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 regression to the mean. We've had a hell of a run, but the last few years show us that every year won't have 40-60 inches of snow here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 We're going to get a 40" blizzard one day and you're all gonna hate it Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 10:42 AM, 495weatherguy said: Anthony, a serious question for you. would you rather have current conditions—blocking but suppression? or Storms at 38 degrees? This winter has demonstrated or reminded us just how many things have to go right (or wrong) for it to snow near the coast. The last 20 years have been unbelievable, rather anomalous, there is a reason our long term averages are around 30 inches of snow. We can no longer discount the extreme warmth. This new normal isnt historically normal for this area at all. Comparing these last few years to historical averages with a much cooler planet is an apples to oranges comparison. The Nino season snapped something. Nothing has been the same since then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Be happy to date there was 1 big snowstorm in your region. Be optimistic that another one can materialize.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 snowiest Decembers...2020 comes in tenth...oni is estimated....2020 is the warmest December with a favorable AO/NAO/PNA... snowiest NYC Decembers since 1950 and indices... year....snowfall....big snow......ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO... 2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97 2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38 1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36 1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30 2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56 2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57 1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57 1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48 2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50 2020.....10.5".........10.5"..........39.2.....-1.2....-1.736....-0.30.....1.58.....10.37 2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3.....-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04 1966...….9.1"...……..7.1"...……....35.7......-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26 1957...….8.7"...……..8.0"...…..….40.2.......1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35 2013...….8.6"...……..5.0"....…….38.5...…-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52 1961...….7.7"...……..6.2"...…..….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25 2017...….7.7"...……..4.5".....…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12 1952...….7.5"...……..4.5"....…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65 1990...….7.2"...……..7.2"...….….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68 1968...….7.0"...……..5.2"...….….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36 1993...….6.9"...……..4.0"....…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00 1969...….6.8"...……..6.8"....…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 1:31 PM, snowman19 said: People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here Yup. At least from 1979-1993 there wasn't the temptation to stay glued to the situation 24x7 (other than TWC, which even as a kid you knew that once you watched for 20 minutes straight there would be nothing new to hear for a few hours, so might as well go play outside.) As a kid/teen if I had the 24x7 access we have now I might not have graduated elementary, junior high, or high school on time, or held down a job during the winter months lol. Imagine working in a shopping mall and heading down to the TV department in the department store to catch the weatherman at 7:45PM sharp to see if there were any updates. In hindsight, I think that might have been a problem. 1970-1999 Long Island had about six (six!) total storms of a foot or more. The 2000-2016 was the reward for those of us who suffered before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January . Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin models can't even get a storm right a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January . Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin models can't even get a storm right a week out. Perhaps a name change would help, Anthony ..... “ Long Range Maybe “ is a thought. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Blocking fail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Blocking fail compared to other years with this kind of blocking...but we still got a 10" snowstorm to show for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: compared to other years with this kind of blocking...but we still got a 10" snowstorm to show for it... We were lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: SSW fail like it always does Might ban this term. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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