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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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18 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I did. Above 3,000 feet in West Virginia looks pretty good for wet snow.

   snowchaser    In my   earlier   reply  I  got the  2 event dates   DEC  14     confused 
  you may be   confused   by what I ma saying   here 


 My comments about   rain in VA  in western VA    are  for the dec 14  event ONLY 
 if you saw  MY  recent  previous post    I am  BULLISH  have been for more than 36 hrs   about  all of  western VA  for  WED  DEC16


 SURFACE TEMPS  WED  DEC 14 AM 


ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t2m_f-7968800.thumb.png.27b1152fa4d3b1ebac0bc3bacaf38a40.png

925MB  temps   well above  zero.....

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t925-7968800.thumb.png.fe2390e1db94ccbad3e5b30cf4143abd.png

 if YOU think   you are going to get snow  in westrn VA   with temps  39-43  degrees  and  925 mb temps    above  0z ... 
  that not gonna happen

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

  no   you did not...  AND  the  issue is NOT 3000 feet 

SURFACE TEMPS  WED  DEC 14 AM 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t2m_f-7968800.thumb.png.27b1152fa4d3b1ebac0bc3bacaf38a40.png

925MB  temps   well above  zero.....

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t925-7968800.thumb.png.fe2390e1db94ccbad3e5b30cf4143abd.png

 if YOU think   you are going to get snow  in westrn VA   with temps  39-43  degrees  and  925 mb temps    above  0z ... then you need to  slow down and  re think this

 because  clearly you did NOT look at  ALL the data 

I think the confusion is that Wednesday is 12/16, not 12/14.  People may think you were referring to Weds event and not Monday’s because you said Weds 12/14.  
 

 

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I think the confusion is that Wednesday is 12/16, not 12/14.  People may think you were referring to Weds event and not Monday’s because you said Weds 12/14.  

Yes, thanks. Slight confusion over which event. We should try to be more clear when we are discussing. If Monday’s event trends colder, we can open a thread this weekend, and wait until early week for the late week threat. But for now try and be more clear 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Snow is srs bizness 

Hi, you must be new here. Welcome to the mid Atlantic!

I hate you. :wub:

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Just now, jaydreb said:

I think the confusion is that Wednesday is 12/16, not 12/14.  People may think you were referring to Weds event and not Monday’s because you said Weds 12/14.  
 

 

 well i edited  it  a while ago but maybe you are right 

 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

why are we yelling

DT is a celebrity MET that basically founded weather boards. He pretty much will be able to get anyway with anything. Im kinda of okay with it lol

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

DT is a celebrity MET that basically founded weather boards. He pretty much will be able to get anyway with anything. Im kinda of okay with it lol

I’m finding patience. But I can still make a joke.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Not sure if Feb 2010 was also a hybrid. There were two lows, one off the OBX and another near West Virginia but I still don't think it fits.

ussatsfc2010020612.gif

I'm guessing just because there are two lows doesn't make a hybrid

Yea I would agree I think the primary will end up more west northwest of this particular setup but I also don’t think it drives as far north into the HP. We’ve all been around the block wrt that.

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Yea I would agree I think the primary will end up more west northwest of this particular setup but I also don’t think it drives as far north into the HP. We’ve all been around the block wrt that.

Fun fact with this event...the Ohio primary ended up stronger than progged, BUT the transfer to the coastal was pretty quick. A rare instance where up north into the PA mason/dixon counties boomed and DC didn't switch to rain. This was a rare wind for eveyone.

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32 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

 dec  14   look at the data

I actually feel relatively positive about Monday around ROA. I don’t really consider myself the mountains however like some do. Going to be close. 

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Just now, DTWXRISK said:

   snowchaser    In my   earlier   reply  I  got the  2 event dates   DEC  14     confused 
  you may be   confused   by what I ma saying   here 


 My comments about   rain in VA  in western VA    are  for the dec 14  event ONLY 
 if you saw  MY  recent  previous post    I am  BULLISH  have been for more than 36 hrs   about  all of  western VA  for  WED  DEC16


 SURFACE TEMPS  WED  DEC 14 AM 


ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t2m_f-7968800.thumb.png.27b1152fa4d3b1ebac0bc3bacaf38a40.png

925MB  temps   well above  zero.....

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t925-7968800.thumb.png.fe2390e1db94ccbad3e5b30cf4143abd.png

 if YOU think   you are going to get snow  in westrn VA   with temps  39-43  degrees  and  925 mb temps    above  0z ... 
  that not gonna happen

 

 

I agree. It will be hard for snow in Virginia on Monday. But West Virginia near Snowshoe could see a nice snow event

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Fun fact with this event...the Ohio primary ended up stronger than progged, BUT the transfer to the coastal was pretty quick. A rare instance where up north into the PA mason/dixon counties boomed and DC didn't switch to rain. This was a rare wind for eveyone.

I know the general rule of thumb with cold dense air HP helping out naturally in a lot of situations, especially one anchored around St Lawrence Valley. Will 1036 be strong enough to combat the primary low pressure?

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

DT is a celebrity MET that basically founded weather boards. He pretty much will be able to get anyway with anything. Im kinda of okay with it lol

That’s what happens when you’re the captain of catastrophe

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffmantimeframe for the archambault event when the blocking breaks down? Jan 3 Blizzard?

Jan 7. Should start in northern VA with pixie dust around 10PM temp near 18*. About a foot by morning. Some dry slotting during the day before a killer deform finish the next night. About 24” at Dulles. ~30 by you. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Jan 7. Should start in northern VA with pixie dust around 10PM temp near 18*. About a foot by morning. Some dry slotting during the day before a killer deform finish the next night. About 24” at Dulles. ~30 by you. 

the models 48 hours before the storm will have 2 feet in Richmond and 4-8 in DC and 1 inch in philly to too right?

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Just now, Ji said:

the models 48 hours before the storm will have 2 feet in Richmond and 4-8 in DC and 1 inch in philly to too right?

We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big!

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big!

Nah..he’ll say “still no sign..no sign of our first inch of snow”

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Nah..he’ll say “still no sign..no sign of our first inch of snow”

man and he used to say that so much. Imagine him now

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big!

By page 55 of the nowcast OBS i'll be complaining of a dry slot after it starts sleeting on top of 12 inches

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18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS 3 inches or more for Midweek.  Increase from 12Z.  Control also increased.  GN.

EBF16A39-A1B8-4482-B412-6ADACCE6FC18.png

the key info I think this post missed is that this is the Monday storm on the Control. Good hit.

has the Wednesday storm too I suppose but minus a few early tenths its a miss. 

1608141600-Pj4LwQ86cP4.png

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