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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wear all bright yellow shirts and my hat is bright yellow. I’ve had people 100% purposely swerve at me so I have to jump off the road. One time I was at a one way stop sign intersection where you have to turn left or right into the road. Guy stopped went straight across the lane and forced me into the deep snowbank 

That's pretty fu*cked up and borderline criminal.

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16 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I have actually noticed more signs popping up noting the 3' distance requirement between cars and bikes...Even on narrow roads where this is tough to achieve.  Someone that I know who works with highway regulations was telling me that some people want to add runners to that sign to make it clear to drivers.  

Good luck with the tight roads around here.  When I was running no way I would chance it.  Too tight even for cars. 

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38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nope. I wear bright colored clothing. Drivers should be paying attn to avoid coming anywhere near runners. Many purposely drive extra close or swerve at me over the years. We watch and we flick off 

Haha same happens to me when I find myself having to be on the side of the road. Some cars give me a football field of clearance. Others want me to feel the whoosh off the side mirror. 

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48 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Here is icon so far. You can see it’s much more positively tilted.  Will be interesting to see if other major models follow suite...ugh idk why but can’t add image.

I would really rather not enable the grousers by offering any kind of commiserate philosophy ... buuuut, yeah - I do see that 'positive' tilt ( code for shearing - ) tendency as having more plausibility as a correction in present era.

Some of us ( Will and myself....etc)  have been back and forth on this the last several days ... how the background long term trend leading, doesn't support these sort of hugely meridianal ( N/S)  structured, multi-stream phased scenarios so well...

Paraphrasing...fast flows don't lend to curved trajectories - the wind obeys the same laws of centrifugal forces, and the faster the flow ..the more the "circles" open up - it's just like trying to zip around an off ramp at 80 mph... you'll likely leave said off-ramp tangent to the curve ..lol.  

Anyway, there's like a magic threshold of wind "in stream" velocity, relative to the curved surface, and if the wind needs to mathematically exceed that restriction the models will open up troughs... In this case, it looks - conceptually - like the models are right at that threshold.. And seeing some hints by these higher resolution runs already that are trying to do so, "might" just be an indication that the Global -scaled models are just not close enough to the system where their resolution can "see" that limitation -  ... interesting stuff if one has no life hahahaha...

So I'm not completely sold on a v-cut tuxedo trough in the nation's Lakes longitude that dips to the Gulf where there is a bulb of -3 SD hgt anomaly dangling, then rising up to tip over Baffin Island at exit just yet, when the wind going around it is so at an anomalously high velocity -  

It's funny ... folks see a D 7 cyclogenesis that is hugely perfect and there is all kind of neg-head banter which is fear-bargaining psycho-babble posts miring the mood down... Or, you get this D 7 type of construct and everyone's convinced it is going to happen ... affectedly miring the mood down ? 

got it! no win engagement in here...   Sounds a bit like a persecution complex if you ask me - lol ... 

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'Course... there's the other school of thinking that dramatic variances are favored ...and verifying world -over at increasingly alarming frequency so ... perhaps going from 62 to 27 in 20 minutes is just our region doing going through a version of the new course in climate 

 

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Happens all the time

Mm... I'd say that belies the extremeness of that set up though - not saying you're intending to do so...so take it the right way.  I'm just sayin', those sort of synoptic "upside down" transient ordeals taking place in highly meridion amplitude, ..yeah, sure - but it is the scale and degree of the dipole its self that is whack here - 

Thing is, ...the models are not going to show something that is "physically impossible"  - I mean... forecasters in AFDs may float that sentiment in passing here and there, but they are more droll when they do.  Truth be told, if the models ever did that ... they wouldn't be a very effective/trustworthy tools for representation of geophysical process - could they?  no -

It's really a matter of whether the perfect parametric management can be maintained in time, without permutation, to allow the "ceiling" scenario to actually play out -

In this case, having 63 F at BED MA, while it is 22 F at ALB - is about at the threshold of what can set up at this lat / lon, on Earth !  ...and being 6 days away, that's a lot of time to succeed without said anything getting involved that will hose that set up... 

 

 

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