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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am not saying that above post/annotation effort is about to redux... but, I am seeing that same relative cyclonic motion between 60-70 N vs 35 N ... at super synoptic scales - and that is presage to vulnerability for this sort of subsuming you see in that idealized example ...about a close to perfect as a fluid medium can ever achieve - jesus...

I lived thru that ..by the way, over SW lower Michigan ...  no, I've never seen anything like that since - sorry... I've lived out here in snow storm conceit Kingdom of legend and gods for over 30 years now and have never seen anything compares to that physical expression that resulted

You are a very talented writer, and great with the weather too. We are so lucky you are here.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that "hesitation" you and Bri dawg noted though ...could be a hint at where this is heading...

in simplest terms:  yes a full phased multi- stream latitude screw job can happen - but it isn't favored given the longer termed hemispheric behavior. 

which ..considering the latter - I don't think is endemic to just some present pattern.  no way - that's been doing that progressive shit for decade or more ...regardless of index mode, land air or sea or in aggregate therein, too -

but, anomalies relative to anomalies nest at times..  we'll see

Yeah I do agree there is at least some background support for a whiff on the monster phase. It is nice that a few models are showing it or even hinting at that potential change in the outlook. (Already noted the NAM and Ukie earlier this morning)

Even the EPS are dragging the southern stream a little more this run vs 00z. 

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Would this be bad or good for the east coast US? Some are saying the lag may not be long either because of the blocking pattern that is in effect. 

 

 
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12Z GFS ENS maintaining the cold signal as well for the rest of the year especially across more northern and western areas of the UK. Modest high ground of #Scotland #Ireland #NEngland and #Wales could end up with a lot of snow between Christmas and New Year. #onetowatch
 
 
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GFS maintaining the persistent signal for the strat vortex to breakdown and while right at the end of the run its showing the long predicted SSW into early Jan...
 
 
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7 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Would this be bad or good for the east coast US? Some are saying the lag may not be long either because of the blocking pattern that is in effect. 

 

 
ShN-aSxP_bigger.jpg
 
12Z GFS ENS maintaining the cold signal as well for the rest of the year especially across more northern and western areas of the UK. Modest high ground of #Scotland #Ireland #NEngland and #Wales could end up with a lot of snow between Christmas and New Year. #onetowatch
 
 
Image
 
 
 
2
 
14
 
 
 
 
ShN-aSxP_bigger.jpg
 
GFS maintaining the persistent signal for the strat vortex to breakdown and while right at the end of the run its showing the long predicted SSW into early Jan...
 
 
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It seems like every winter from November through March there is non stop hype of “major/huge/epic/historic” SSWs, SPV splits, flips, dips, electric slides....

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I do agree there is at least some background support for a whiff on the monster phase. It is nice that a few models are showing it or even hinting at that potential change in the outlook. (Already noted the NAM and Ukie earlier this morning)

Even the EPS are dragging the southern stream a little more this run vs 00z. 

Check out the eps

 

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21 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

The whole grinch storm thing is complete bullshit....

I agree. I'm coming from the Mid-Atlantic for some of that good ole New England white powder for Christmas and I'm looking at rain. lol  I even bought snow tire chains. Thinking I need to ditch those and bring rain gear. :weep: :raining:

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6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I agree. I'm coming from the Mid-Atlantic for some of that good ole New England white powder for Christmas and I'm looking at rain. lol  I even bought snow tire chains. Thinking I need to ditch those and bring rain gear. :weep: :raining:

I generally won’t make any travel ski plans before MLK day.  I am just so used to this drill. 
 

:axe:

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21 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Would this be bad or good for the east coast US? Some are saying the lag may not be long either because of the blocking pattern that is in effect.

 
12Z GFS ENS maintaining the cold signal as well for the rest of the year especially across more northern and western areas of the UK. Modest high ground of #Scotland #Ireland #NEngland and #Wales could end up with a lot of snow between Christmas and New Year. #onetowatch
 
 
 
 

Throwin' some buns into the fray ...

... there is a little known teleconnector that exist between the British Isles and the NE U.S.... tending to be positively correlated - such that what is happening there, tends to happen here ( or within geographical reasonableness NOT to be stoned for merely advancing the impertinent gesture lol - ) ...   heh, heh?  who's with me - 

seriously though, there is.  The reason for that is basically just geometric, and the curvature space of the planetary system and normal R-wave distribution coincidentally puts ridging and trough concurrently at either ends of the Atlantic Basin.  You know ... so the pattern conducive would also "precipitate" in such a way as to make people groan for making that pun there on purpose because it's fun to annoy them -

No but NAO "possibly" emerging ( per GFS operational most guilty ) is an interesting aspect in this... It's like the model is sniffing out; yet at the same time, we can see a supcon of tendency to retrograde the higher latitudes before the NAO really manifests ... And it may be more than sensing this as 'synergistic', because the AO is negative ...and though the mean (GEFs) does blow up and mop end out there into week two, the mean is still heavily negative... So, I just wonder if the speedier flow/plague is interfering with the EPO and NAO's abilities to foment blocking nodes, which given the former seems we should really be seeing more of that. hm.

As far as the SSW ...not sure I agree with that... one thing I have noticed about the GFS handling of the thermal/sigma levels out there in time over the last several seasons is that regardless of whether one occurs or not, the model loves to fire off huge hot pulses in the 10 to 30 hPa levels nearing 300 hours+ ..or even D10's... It could be like placeholder in the physics; sort of like it's always prone and the model is sniffing that out, but the trigger fails to pull -  We'll see...  The QBO is also out of phase for SSWs .. but that's not a deal break either

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