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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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8th became a long-shot when this one in the near-term became real - 

The wave spacing was never right ...and we need some help.  Some cycles over the last day .. day and a half started hinting to that by slowing down.  It's still not impossible, but again ... a long shot. 

What needs to happens is more short wave ridging ejecting out ahead of the these trough components ... The models all seem to agree in coalescing/phasing or whatever they are doing, into a cohesive structure in the lower MA but without that roll-out ridge ... it's heading out. 

The system here over the weekend needs to evac on up and out of even the lower Maritimes ... that would be the first step.  It's lollygagging upon exit sort of 'absorbs' the ridge ejecta ... and that feeds back on keeping this next event for the 8th moving more E

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

8th became a long-shot when this one in the near-term became real - 

The wave spacing was never right ...and we need some help.  Some cycles over the last day .. day and a half started hinting to that by slowing down.  It's still not impossible, but again ... a long shot. 

What needs to happens is more short wave ridging ejecting out ahead of the these trough components ... The models all seem to agree in coalescing/phasing or whatever they are doing, into a cohesive structure in the lower MA but without that roll-out ridge ... it's heading out. 

The system here over the weekend needs to evac on up and out of even the lower Maritimes ... that would be the first step.  It's lollygagging upon exit sort of 'absorbs' the ridge ejecta ... and that feeds back on keeping this next event for the 8th moving more E

Thanks for ruining the system for the mid Atlantic peeps. 

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Warm, wet and stormy has been the idea for December for a while now. Keep the snow mostly north of New York City like I had in my outlook, and I'll be happy. Further north you go, the more you get generally, not just overall, but relative to averages. That's been the idea for a while.

NAO has gone negative btw -

NAO-12-5

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27 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Warm, wet and stormy has been the idea for December for a while now. Keep the snow mostly north of New York City like I had in my outlook, and I'll be happy. Further north you go, the more you get generally, not just overall, but relative to averages. That's been the idea for a while.

NAO has gone negative btw -

NAO-12-5

You had the NYC area close to average so they would be happy too.

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