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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Even Tom Skilling briefly mentioned a possible storm with phase this evening.  Had to go to this site to see what he was referencing.  Guess it's time to buy a snow shovel for the winter.

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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Even Tom Skilling briefly mentioned a possible storm with phase this evening.  Had to go to this site to see what he was referencing.  Guess it's time to buy a snow shovel for the winter.

A redux of blizzard of ' 78!!!  ( just kidding ).

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1 minute ago, Gino27 said:

Toss. On to the next run...

Can't exactly toss it just because it has a weak solution. That being said it is hard to explain.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I don't even know what this run is, it phases but is completely garbage.

The entire thing looks like a mess on the GFS esp that vort map. 

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It's still there in some form.  Take that as a victory at this point.

On another note, I just noticed that this one would fall on the anniversary of the 11/30-12/1, 2006 storm.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

It's still there in some form.  Take that as a victory at this point.

On another note, I just noticed that this one would fall on the anniversary of the 11/30-12/1, 2006 storm.  

Lousy winter, hard pass on that one.

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Every model so far has evolved it differently, any sort of consensus vanished. Only thing you can say is there will be a trough in the east at some point but how we get there is completely unknown.

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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Gotta bump that thing about 100 miles west, then we're talking

I need it about 20 miles east. Lol

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The Euro is pretty spectacular.  The anomaly map speaks for itself.  Given the area involved, it looks more like something you would expect to see later in December or January, not at the turn of November into December.  

Some traits of some of your all-time classic storms on that run. 

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Aside from a run or two, the op euro has been bullish on phase in the lakes and has gained some support 

That said, lots of other things suck about the setup from a snow standpoint and without the blockbuster phase there really just isn't much to work with

6z GEFS again look to have a good deal of deep members, so hopefully that solution gains traction

Sub 980 or bust

 

Capture2.JPG

 

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6 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Asking Chicago to not reel this one in is like shooting spit balls at the 6'3" Eastern-bloc bouncer at the club. 

Meh, when has a well phased gulf low bomb out and track through here. GHD?

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