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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Not me, lol

Does look like at least a legit ice/snow threat around here with a lesser threat for plain rain.

Yeah. Haha. I’ll take the GEM. 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

GDPS/Euro and GFS are on different planets.  The UK is halfway between the planets.

 The euro is a little far North for my liking but considering the more suppressed Canadian, icon, and UK, can't say that I mind it. only the gfs isn't playing ball.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd.

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I-80 is like the The Equator.   Lol.  

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Id like where i am sitting if i I were chicago and detroit as it can only go so far north. Obviously still a ways to go but if anything Id expect it to come a little south of todays euro. We've also seen the euro be over amped often this winter at this range.

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Not me, lol

Does look like at least a legit ice/snow threat around here with a lesser threat for plain rain.

Ha, you know what I mean, showing that magnitude of system and next step is getting run to run consistency on the 18z ensemble, and 00z runs to really feel better about it. I think we can work with that south end because the -NAO may help in that respect.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, vortex said:

I-80 is like the The Equator.   Lol.  

The equator might have had a bigger snow event than we've had in the past few years.

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd.

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I-70 crowd is punching air. Long ways to go.

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The equator might have had a bigger snow event than we've had in the past few years.
I'd prefer that shifted south too, riding the edge a bit here on the DuPage-Will border.

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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Ha, you know what I mean, showing that magnitude of system and next step is getting run to run consistency on the 18z ensemble, and 00z runs to really feel better about it. I think we can work with that south end because the -NAO may help in that respect.

 

 

 

Your post makes perfect sense, but still a scary look around here given we have seen some version of that kind of gradient around I-80 quite a few times in recent years.

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12 minutes ago, Baum said:

Alek contrarian post incoming.

Well given this winter still have to ride the Ukie and GFS lame solutions until they fall in line with the Euro/GEM. Would be interesting if 12Z GEFS shows some bigger hits though

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Just now, Cary67 said:

Well given this winter still have to ride the Ukie and GFS lame solutions until they fall in line with the Euro/GEM. Would interesting if 12Z GEFS shows some bigger hits though

You have it a bit off there. It’s been the GEM/Ukie camp rolling the Euro/GFS all winter.

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1 minute ago, Cary67 said:

Well given this winter still have to ride the Ukie and GFS lame solutions until they fall in line with the Euro/GEM. Would be interesting if 12Z GEFS shows some bigger hits though

long long way to go. Just good to see a couple models latch on to the idea of a substantial event.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

You have it a bit off there. It’s been the GEM/Ukie camp rolling the Euro/GFS all winter.

Yeah torn between the Ukie/GEM split on this right now

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12z Euro may have caved to GFS in regards to early next week, but behold afterwards:
sn10_acc.us_mw.png&key=d31c6a05c0ec9257ebf646f78d94eeba057feee8575671b66ea94a52a3470b4c
I think you might have the wrong take here. Anyway, new thread for the potential event Saturday PM into Tuesday. There's additional potential later next week.

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