Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RCNYILWX]

The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd.

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[vortex]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Not me, lol

Does look like at least a legit ice/snow threat around here with a lesser threat for plain rain.

Yeah. Haha. I’ll take the GEM. 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

GDPS/Euro and GFS are on different planets.  The UK is halfway between the planets.

 The euro is a little far North for my liking but considering the more suppressed Canadian, icon, and UK, can't say that I mind it. only the gfs isn't playing ball.

[Chicago Storm]

[vortex]

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd.

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I-80 is like the The Equator.   Lol.  

[Stevo6899]

Id like where i am sitting if i I were chicago and detroit as it can only go so far north. Obviously still a ways to go but if anything Id expect it to come a little south of todays euro. We've also seen the euro be over amped often this winter at this range.

[RCNYILWX]

Not me, lol

Does look like at least a legit ice/snow threat around here with a lesser threat for plain rain.

Ha, you know what I mean, showing that magnitude of system and next step is getting run to run consistency on the 18z ensemble, and 00z runs to really feel better about it. I think we can work with that south end because the -NAO may help in that respect.

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, vortex said:

I-80 is like the The Equator.   Lol.  

The equator might have had a bigger snow event than we've had in the past few years.

[Gino27]

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd.

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I-70 crowd is punching air. Long ways to go.

[Baum]

Alek contrarian post incoming.

[WHEATCENT]

a nice 33 degree rain for CLE on that EURO 

[RCNYILWX]

The equator might have had a bigger snow event than we've had in the past few years.

I'd prefer that shifted south too, riding the edge a bit here on the DuPage-Will border.

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[Chicago Storm]

 

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Ha, you know what I mean, showing that magnitude of system and next step is getting run to run consistency on the 18z ensemble, and 00z runs to really feel better about it. I think we can work with that south end because the -NAO may help in that respect.

 

 

 

Your post makes perfect sense, but still a scary look around here given we have seen some version of that kind of gradient around I-80 quite a few times in recent years.

[Cary67]

12 minutes ago, Baum said:

Alek contrarian post incoming.

Well given this winter still have to ride the Ukie and GFS lame solutions until they fall in line with the Euro/GEM. Would be interesting if 12Z GEFS shows some bigger hits though

[andyhb]

It's almost as if @RCNYILWX knew what he was talking about or something...

[Chicago Storm]

Just now, Cary67 said:

Well given this winter still have to ride the Ukie and GFS lame solutions until they fall in line with the Euro/GEM. Would interesting if 12Z GEFS shows some bigger hits though

You have it a bit off there. It’s been the GEM/Ukie camp rolling the Euro/GFS all winter.

[Baum]

1 minute ago, Cary67 said:

Well given this winter still have to ride the Ukie and GFS lame solutions until they fall in line with the Euro/GEM. Would be interesting if 12Z GEFS shows some bigger hits though

long long way to go. Just good to see a couple models latch on to the idea of a substantial event.

[hlcater]

European models always were my favorite

[mimillman]

mmhmm

[Cary67]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

You have it a bit off there. It’s been the GEM/Ukie camp rolling the Euro/GFS all winter.

Yeah torn between the Ukie/GEM split on this right now

[RCNYILWX]

New thread for this potential event, let's take the discussion over there.

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[Spartman]

59 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z EURO

12z Euro may have caved to GFS in regards to early next week, but behold afterwards:

[RCNYILWX]

12z Euro may have caved to GFS in regards to early next week, but behold afterwards:

I think you might have the wrong take here. Anyway, new thread for the potential event Saturday PM into Tuesday. There's additional potential later next week.

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[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The equator might have had a bigger snow event than we've had in the past few years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayambe_(volcano)

[Spartman]

00z GFS:

00z Euro:

00z GDPS:


From the Tennessee Valley forum.....

 

[michsnowfreak]

Seems to be a decent amount of activity on the ensembles in the longrange. Naturally everything is all over the place, but it seems to be a sign that our zzzz period is on life support.

[Spartman]

12z Euro about late next week:

[mimillman]

Oh dear

[madwx]

Hmm, feel like I've seen that image before