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October 2020 Discussion

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Partly sunny low 60s, not a bad day. I can see the heavier cloud line to the north over S VT.  
Foliage is still cranking pretty good here, it has been a colorful two weeks.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Halloween on genny's in CNE?

lol

We need to cement our October normal snowfall up here after 2011. In 20 years your son will be wondering how C NH averages 3” of snow for October. 

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s my feeling this year. I think December maybe only semi wintry month. Hopefully wrong 

At risk of being presumptuous about what motivates your thinking ... it may not be a bad way to go, Kevin.  I could see one basing that on recent years.  It's been a recurrent autumnal theme ... +PNAP hints or even observed ...loading Canada - and as I have opined at length in the past, since 2000 really, we've seen more than our fair share of Octobers either featuring snow, or patterns supporting snow. In fact, hundreds of percents more so than the previous 200 years of climate.   

In my own life, the first 30 years of it I think I smelled snow in the air twice and saw it once in October, splitting that time range between Kalamazoo Michigan and interior eastern Massachusetts.   Since 2000?   half the years... verified. Boom - I guess fractals can repeat and give illusions of pattern that break down but we wait for that break down to get us back to the Octobers of lore.  In the meantime ... it won't be this year...  nope - the snow the other day counts and we've added another October to the till when considering the regional scope -

The thing is ...one cannot dispute trends, particularly if they are consistent... I don't know...maybe Will and the gang have specific numbers but it seems to my own experience this has been repeating in autumns...  By virtue of only half the years since 2000 yeah...there are exceptions ... 2014-2015 ( I think ..) was a puzzlingly horribly protracted warm autumn that ended up in that wack-job February that season... but since then, we've been back at it -

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Just now, dendrite said:

lol

We need to cement our October normal snowfall up here. In 20 years your son will be wondering how C NH averages 3” of snow for October. 

He thinks it's either summer or winter up there..lol. Somewhat true!  

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Halloween on genny's in CNE?

Early season snow voodoo prelude to a ratter?  I know how you love that theory. 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Early season snow voodoo prelude to a ratter?  I know how you love that theory. 

Need it two days later or winter is toast.  :(  

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A few drops earlier this morning in the woods hitting the top of the blind with some scattered showers, Didn't amount to much though, 0.01"

IMG_4843.jpg

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Need it two days later or winter is toast.  :(  

The warning criteria snow I received on Nov 7, 2012 was totally fine, but the Oct 29-30 snow in 2011 totally doomed us.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The warning criteria snow I received on Nov 7, 2012 was totally fine, but the Oct 29-30 snow in 2011 totally doomed us.

I'm still so bitter about that period from 2011 into basically the last day of 2012. :lol:   You telling me that I had a wife and kids to take care of as you flipped to snow on the other side of the Pru tunnel on 12/30/12. And then Jerry frolicking with the other dude in Brookline, sipping hot chocolate and giggling in the snow like an Abercrombie commercial. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Snow setup on the gfs and cmc for interior areas with a nice big high to the north

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

i would love to see a few mangled flakes

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You know...actually?  - if one evals the total synopsis from the eastern Pac to the western Atl and all interstitial shit going on that connects between .... you could argue if that were a month from now, it'd be three pulsed ice-storm with micro bouncers mixed with freezing drizzle in between...

But, being that it is by virtue the 2nd worst time of the year behind the no-man's land April ... it's too early to bite on a cold solution .. .

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@CoastalWx msp crush job currently! They just got upgraded to a winter storm warning for 5-7. If you believe the euro they aren’t close to done this month either 

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(New NWS Radar coming Dec 8th 2020)

They can't be serious with this radar. Wtf is this? 

The radar doesnt fully load no matter how long i wait

The play button doesnt do anything, no loop

And you cant distinguish between dbz intensity very clearly.

holy hell, this has got to be a joke, or it needs to be like 100% redone or fixed

123111Capture.PNG

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18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@CoastalWx msp crush job currently! They just got upgraded to a winter storm warning for 5-7. If you believe the euro they aren’t close to done this month either 

I was just talking about that. Iowa got crushed with a narrow band of wicked S+ and thunder too. We haven't had much chatter about MSP for whatever reason which I am surprised. fairly busy hub. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I was just talking about that. Iowa got crushed with a narrow band of wicked S+ and thunder too. We haven't had much chatter about MSP for whatever reason which I am surprised. fairly busy hub. 

The models have been very steady the pass few days with 5-7 across the city. I get the hesitation because of the time of the year with surface temps but the radar looks great for them. It looks like the snow is having no issue sticking 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The models have been very steady the pass few days with 5-7 across the city. I get the hesitation because of the time of the year with surface temps but the radar looks great for them. It looks like the snow is having no issue sticking 

Warm ground!

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Lol. Last obs from msp heavy snow .25 vis 

Their discussion used the melting argument (which may be true briefly at onset) and ratios 8-9:1. Not sure how you look at that soundings and see that. Not to mention temps 29-30F.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Their discussion used the melting argument (which may be true briefly at onset) and ratios 8-9:1. Not sure how you look at that soundings and see that. Not to mention temps 29-30F.

Yeah, the 2-4 with a WWA made no sense for that area. I would expect a nightmare commute home for those that are still commuting these days.

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the 2-4 with a WWA made no sense for that area. I would expect a nightmare commute home for those that are still commuting these days.

Shoulder season events are always hard, just not sure of their logic. 

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