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Winter 2020-21 Discussion


Hoosier
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So we are looking at a La Nina of some strength... possibly a moderate peak.  Could be stronger than 2017-18 but not as strong as the one in 2010-11.

In what is almost akin to a hell freezing over moment, Weatherbell/JB are going with a mild winter for the east.  But we are not exactly the east (for the most part) and while there is a mild risk, I'd rather be in our region.  

Anyway, post your seasonal forecasts, discussions, etc here.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

So we are looking at a La Nina of some strength... possibly a moderate peak.  Could be stronger than 2017-18 but not as strong as the one in 2010-11.

In what is almost akin to a hell freezing over moment, Weatherbell/JB are going with a mild winter for the east.  But we are not exactly the east (for the most part) and while there is a mild risk, I'd rather be in our region.  

Anyway, post your seasonal forecasts, discussions, etc here.

Moderate La Nina...

Nodding Head GIFs | Tenor

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28 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Warm Tongue of Death will be a common theme in Ohio this year.

As for the region as a whole, I expect above normal temps/precip/snow especially north of 80.

Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh.  

Agree though.  Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one.  A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter.

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41 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Warm Tongue of Death will be a common theme in Ohio this year.

As for the region as a whole, I expect above normal temps/precip/snow especially north of 80.

 

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh.  

Agree though.  Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one.  A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter.

I mean, he's not wrong.  We know geography is not in our favor, but we'll still whine and complain when the rug gets swept out from under us 72 hours out.

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Warm Tongue of Death will be a common theme in Ohio this year.

As for the region as a whole, I expect above normal temps/precip/snow especially north of 80.

Pain... but yeah you're probably right. I expect us to cash in on some of the more progressive/weaker systems, but the heavier ones will probably stay north like usual. 

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Nice to see the Winter thread going in our forum. Of course anything can happen, but I would be shocked if we did not finish the Winter with above average precipitation, with recent trends of slightly increasing precipitation, and the fact that nina climatology shows an extremely strong correlation for above average precipitation in the Great Lakes. It will probably be some sort of roller coaster Winter, there will probably be be plenty of good times but also plenty of frustration.

 

Nina winters like to set in early then have an extended January thaw at some point mid winter.  How the season finishes up is more variable, but we have been in a stretch here of very late Springs.  I do like the odds of a snowy Christmas season.

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5 hours ago, Frog Town said:

The more I hear about warm forecasts, especially from JB, the more I'll prepare for a Cold/Snowy Winter.  Especially after last years fiasco.  13-14' was supposed to be a mild winter IRC...

Clearly i'm a bit jaded after last years hype.  

Totally get the jaded part but I can post numerous pre-season outlooks including WxBell's showing '13-14 to be a cold/snowy winter for our region.

 

Weatherbell-2013_2014-Winter-Temps_Outlook.gif

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Nice to see the Winter thread going in our forum. Of course anything can happen, but I would be shocked if we did not finish the Winter with above average precipitation, with recent trends of slightly increasing precipitation, and the fact that nina climatology shows an extremely strong correlation for above average precipitation in the Great Lakes. It will probably be some sort of roller coaster Winter, there will probably be be plenty of good times but also plenty of frustration.

 

Nina winters like to set in early then have an extended January thaw at some point mod winter.  How the season finishes up is more variable, but we have been in a stretch here of very late Springs.  I do like the odds of a snowy Christmas season.

00-01 and 05-06. Two ultimate examples of winter terminating post-December

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

00-01 and 05-06. Two ultimate examples of winter terminating post-December

Yes. 2 examples of Currier and Ives Christmas seasons filled with lots of snow then a very blah Winter after new years. Huge difference though in the fact that we had a deep snowpack that took until mid February to melt off In 2001, whereas in 2006 the snowpack melted right around new years.  Of course there was some snow; there is no such thing as Winter completely terminating in this region, but if those are not examples of a front loaded Winter, nothing is.

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Although 2000-01 was front loaded, we got two decent storms in FM. Feb 2001 we got ~10" of snow and ice pellets followed by an inch of rain. And in March 2001 we got another 10" storm. No real arctic air after December either. 

To be honest, aside from Jan 1999, Jan 2000 cold outbreak and Dec 2000, we saw 5 crappy winters in a row (1997-2002). Nothing special happened in those 6 years expect for those select few months lol. Now to be fair I was a little kid at the time but still. 

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On 9/10/2020 at 6:56 PM, Hoosier said:

Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh.  

Agree though.  Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one.  A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter.

I saw the 86mph fastball right down the middle, had to hit that grand slam. And sure they can get stuff but the more moderate the nina gets the less chances they have.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I saw the 86mph fastball right down the middle, had to hit that grand slam. And sure they can get stuff but the more moderate the nina gets the less chances they have.

A quick glance at recent strong nina years yields normal to above here.  Maybe other parts of the state.

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