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George BM

September Discobs 2020

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2.5" so far since this morning here in Calvert...still coming down heavy from time to time.  

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1.3"

Looking at the radar, doesn't look like I am going to be able to wish away more heavy rain. New grass is not exactly thriving. :(

Already 6.6" for the month.

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6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

wow!

 

I hope WMATA takes disciplinary action against that bus driver...what an idiot.

 

0.00" here.  76 and mostly sunny.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The chance for excessive rain today was forecast yesterday for the area. Models struggle with pinpointing the exact locations where the heavy rain will occur given subtle forcing mechanisms and weak flow aloft. There is no bust here.

I call bust. I checked on the NWS site for my zip code and it said .5 to .75" rain.  The disclaimer is usually "except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms" or something to that effect. There was no such disclaimer yesterday (last night). I'm not 100% on this. That phrasing gets my attention.

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11 minutes ago, coolio said:

I call bust. I checked on the NWS site for my zip code and it said .5 to .75" rain.  The disclaimer is usually "except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms" or something to that effect. There was no such disclaimer yesterday (last night). I'm not 100% on this. That phrasing gets my attention.

You are never going to see a forecast of 4-6" when the convection is scattered in nature. Come on. Read the headlines. There was a FFW put into effect. Read the forecast discussions. Read the WPC outlooks and meso discussions. There was a MPD  put out at 1245 PM today highlighting the FF risk for the DC area. The excessive rain potential was well advertised in advance, and localized amounts of 5" were highlighted.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

You are never going to see a forecast of 4-6" when the convection is scattered in nature. Come on. Read the headlines. There was a FFW put into effect. Read the forecast discussions. Read the WPC outlooks and meso discussions. There was a MPD  put out at 1245 PM today highlighting the FF risk for the DC area. The excessive rain potential was well advertised in advance, and localized amounts of 5" were highlighted.

When do you see 4-6'' AREA WIDE outside of a true landfalling tropical? Come on CAPE.

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1 minute ago, Subtropics said:

When do you see 4-6'' AREA WIDE outside of a true landfalling tropical? Come on CAPE.

That was my ****ing point. Try actually reading for context next time.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You are never going to see a forecast of 4-6" when the convection is scattered in nature. Come on. Read the headlines. There was a FFW put into effect. Read the forecast discussions. Read the WPC outlooks and meso discussions. There was a MPD  put out at 1245 PM today highlighting the FF risk for the DC area. The excessive rain potential was well advertised in advance, and localized amounts of 5" were highlighted.

I saw the FFW this morning, but that is too late for most folks. They check the forecast last night (like me) or sometimes in the am.  . I'm looking at the NWS for my zip right now and it says: "  New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. " There was nothing like that last night, or I dont remember that.

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5 minutes ago, coolio said:

I saw the FFW this morning, but that is too late for most folks. They check the forecast last night (like me) or sometimes in the am.  . I'm looking at the NWS for my zip right now and it says: "  New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. " There was nothing like that last night, or I dont remember that.

This is why you read the headlines and the AFD. The mesos were all over the place with exactly where the localized heavy rains would set up, even this morning. My local forecast had 1-2 for today, and it looks pretty spot on as of now. Further NW was more iffy based on most guidance, so probably why LWX went more generic/conservative with amounts on the point/click.

And again, WPC highlighted the risk for excessive rains for DC-BWI-PHI and points east yesterday.

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

That N/S train was like a mini-Lee.  

Looking at the radar reminded me of the exact same thing.  Just a few miles further east.

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10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Anyone in old EC? That heavy stuff looks pretty close.

Doesn't look anywhere near as heavy or as stationary as the earlier stuff.

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Neighbor measured 4.2 inches here, seems about right given how much water was in my basement. Might have to bite the bullet and actually get it waterproofed.  Anyone have a good waterproofing company that does Montgomery county?

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