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George BM

September Discobs 2020

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58 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Neighbor measured 4.2 inches here, seems about right given how much water was in my basement. Might have to bite the bullet and actually get it waterproofed.  Anyone have a good waterproofing company that does Montgomery county?

J E S. Very good . Neighbor had work done. Excellent job.

 

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6 hours ago, nj2va said:

I hope WMATA takes disciplinary action against that bus driver...what an idiot.

 

0.00" here.  76 and mostly sunny.

Right. Clearly a no-wake zone.

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33 minutes ago, snowfan said:

NAM twins dry this weekend. GFS mostly dry thru the entire run. Hope it holds.

That hurricane at the end of the run is only 1500 miles east of where it had it yesterday. LR modeling is as accurate as the farmer's almanac. I'm vowing not to look beyond 5 days this winter. 

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34 minutes ago, snowfan said:

NAM twins dry this weekend. GFS mostly dry thru the entire run. Hope it holds.

The morning Mount Holly AFD commented there was better agreement between the Euro and the GFS overnight, and that the front washes away as it nears us Sunday, and the threat of excessive rainfall on Sunday has diminished. Sunday may indeed be dry.  

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Dry is good. No significant rain for the next 5 days would be wonderful.

The soup kitchen is gone at last but will it return? You don't need need rain for that.... this region is nutty but nothing like Colorado I suppose.

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when is the front supposed to move through? or better question, when does the humidity break? 

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9 minutes ago, mappy said:

when is the front supposed to move through? or better question, when does the humidity break? 

As the day progresses according to the AFD from Mount Holly . Your area first then me later .  

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15 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The soup kitchen is gone at last but will it return? You don't need need rain for that.... this region is nutty but nothing like Colorado I suppose.

We are much more humid than colorado!

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14 minutes ago, mappy said:

when is the front supposed to move through? or better question, when does the humidity break? 

A little more detail 

From MH AFD 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The band of showers associated with the frontal wave, which has
lingered over central Delmarva and far southern NJ the last few
hours, should push offshore shortly. The cold front which has
only made slow southward progress (as these weaker fronts often
do) overnight will accelerate southward this morning away from
the area. High Pressure building in behind the front over the
Great Lakes will foster a dry N-NE flow over the area with
dewpoints steadily dropping N-S through the day. Can`t rule out
a few showers over the far south this morning (closer to the
convergence zone and the better moisture) but guidance has
trended more aggressive in drying us out, so confined
mentionable PoPs to southern NJ and southern Delmarva.

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

As the day progresses according to the AFD from Mount Holly . Your area first then me later .  

 

6 minutes ago, frd said:

A little more detail 

From MH AFD 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The band of showers associated with the frontal wave, which has
lingered over central Delmarva and far southern NJ the last few
hours, should push offshore shortly. The cold front which has
only made slow southward progress (as these weaker fronts often
do) overnight will accelerate southward this morning away from
the area. High Pressure building in behind the front over the
Great Lakes will foster a dry N-NE flow over the area with
dewpoints steadily dropping N-S through the day. Can`t rule out
a few showers over the far south this morning (closer to the
convergence zone and the better moisture) but guidance has
trended more aggressive in drying us out, so confined
mentionable PoPs to southern NJ and southern Delmarva.

 

 

 

Great, thank you! There is a breeze up here this morning, which is a god send for temps in the house. COME ON LOWER DEWS

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I have mentioned this before, along with various posts by bluewave. Anthony has an entire series of posts on this. And without a doubt this trend continues. The focus, well the enhanced area of higher heights near the East Coast between May and October during the most recent 10 year period.      

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

I have mentioned this before, along with various posts by bluewave. Anthony has an entire series of posts on this. And without a doubt this trend continues. The focus, well the enhanced area of higher heights near the East Coast between May and October during the most recent 10 year period.      

 

 

Very interesting. What would this mean? Not sure I understand implications of increasing heights or even what heights are.

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9 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Very interesting. What would this mean? Not sure I understand implications of increasing heights or even what heights are.

 

I agree. Any translators in the house? lol

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2 hours ago, Subtropics said:

We are much more humid than colorado!

having these PWATS at 40N is kind of ridiculous. It's the only place in the world with such conditions.

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I've counted like 2 or 3 80 degree days on the LR GEFS. It's all upper 60s to upper 70s with crisp cool nights to accelerate fall foliage. Here we go

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1 hour ago, Subtropics said:

Very interesting. What would this mean? Not sure I understand implications of increasing heights or even what heights are.

The height at which you will find 500 mb of pressure in the atmosphere.Typically we talk in terms of height anomalies. The higher up the 500 mb level is, the warmer the column of air below that point. Its a good indication of surface temps in most cases, although inversions and advection can mess with that correlation.

In the summer months it translates to big heat when we have +height anomalies over the east.

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2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

I've counted like 2 or 3 80 degree days on the LR GEFS. It's all upper 60s to upper 70s with crisp cool nights to accelerate fall foliage. Here we go

Also, couldn't ask for better weather over the weekend with a slight hint of mugginess on Sunday. Other than that a 10/10 week with the best weather on Tuesday with highs around 70F. Humidity in the 40s. Nights in the mid 50s to low 60s basically every night. Summer is gone.

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Already noticing color changing here (spotty/patchy) which should accelerate over the next week with lows forecasted to get into the mid 40s.  

Keep us posted. I'm planning on doing a few days in Canaan and up near ohiopyle. Both spots are usually a bit ahead of deep creek.

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Euro/Ukmet like a homebrew tropical system in the NE gulf early next week.  Many Eps members crush the Fla panhandle with rain . Maybe we can get a track for remnants up here so I can beat down this dust. 

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As much as I enjoy seeing those long range outlooks with blue in the East I can’t help but think Indian summer to follow.  I fear early season cool temps. 

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7 hours ago, CAPE said:

Speaking of heights, and thoughts of crisp cool nights..

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59.png

The question is can we get this in January please??

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