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weatherwiz

Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a douche and you don't know me ...I don't think .. but, I don't believe that front actually can move NE of it's current position looking at this at a broad conceptual approach to this situation. ..as in fluid mechanically it can't.  Then, after that notion... one has to consider New England's climatology with BD-pinned fronts, which is just a dense clay of other geographical feed-back no-no's - eesh

The flow is paralleling the boundary; it's like all of the analytic Meteorological brain trust has gone mad.  When do warm fronts penetrate through an abrasion flow?  That is like ..physically impossible. 

This situation seems(ed) dead to me when I saw that yesterday in the models..W-NW flow at mid levels. What is SPC using?  Now, granted ...that shuts off any hope of "SB" in the SB CAPE.. but elevated... mmm maybe. But they are not talking about "elevated" per se convection in the morning write up... 

Which, by the way folks - there's currently a cut-off vortex near the 50N/50W position slopping cat -paws over eastern Ontario above the 50th parallel, and that feature is pinned in position.  That backlogs the W-NW or arguably more NW flow at mid levels here, which pins the warm front there... end of discussion. 

Now, this was all modeled ..I am actually interested in how SPC came by their enhanced geographic layout - because looking at these very real and reasonably well modeled synoptic circumstances, I don't see how they come by their risk assessed region like that. 

The only way I see Enhanced clear to Springfield Massachusetts ... is if clearing opens up sun almost entirely ( 90% open ceilings/cloud extraction) and the atmosphere gets diabatically forced by the sun... but, the sun is now mid April in intensity ... ( for perspective ) ...It's not May-July out there so even so, its harder for the sun to do that at our latitude and depth of atmosphere east of Berkshires .. Moot anyway looking at sat trends...  

However... ugh, I am - reluctantly - interested in if there is an elevate hail risk where any stronger convection that is feeding purely off the 850 upglide parcel lift on the flop side of the front, and is paralleling it racing SE... yeah...maybe.   But, we may as well not even call this a warm front. .. There is a 101 synoptic term that is out there available for this sort of phenomenon and it is called a "stationary" front.   And, with the mid level flow abraded(ing) SE that like it is ... sawing off any warm intrusion attempting to mix down... that leaves only one possibility - the models are/were wrong ( but so far nearing mid morning the pinned front is well handled)

I guess if the vortex NW of NS/NF weakens during the day, and the mid level flow veers slightly... and the stationary boundary does actually "warm" for a period of time...it might intrude into CT ..but that's not modeled to do that... I don't think ? 

 

Douche away; I'm a big boy, I can take it; lol.  I have read enough of your post to know you have a great handle on the dynamics of the atmosphere.  Your statements about sfc/upper air pattern analysis versus modeled frontal & sfc pressure center positions are never taken lightly by me.  It is something I try to constantly remind myself about.  There are many times I just look at the sfc & upper air analysis and physically draw what that look should lead to in terms of feature placements.  I do think the pattern layout described in your post above certainly is not one usually favorable for a warm front to bodily rush across SNE.   But skies have really cleared out of all most all of CT, as well as southeastern NY, temps are rising quickly across western CT, but the rich dew points are still sitting down across portions of eastern PA/NJ.  Certainly not a classic summertime warm front passage?  Southeastern NY and western / southwestern CT were my main concern area and that continues.  The increasing sunshine across CT may open the door to the threat migrating into central CT, as well as the greater Springfield area, but dew points really need to get going. Noted SPC is yet to issue a MCD for this afternoon, which tells me they are not as bullish right now, even though their updated outlook remains mostly unchanged. 

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22 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

The models use AMDAR data already, so I don't now how much more useful data you'd get from a dedicated balloon launching site at BDL.

I think it would help in certain situations 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure that matters... Lot of posting about the sun.  Okay, but it's not likely to be enough. This cool air mass is a thick anomaly... it needs two, June 21 sun disks in the sky to overcome lol

Giving it another hour for that warm front to make progress 

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30 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Douche away; I'm a big boy, I can take it; lol.  I have read enough of your post to know you have a great handle on the dynamics of the atmosphere.  Your statements about sfc/upper air pattern analysis versus modeled frontal & sfc pressure center positions are never taken lightly by me.  It is something I try to constantly remind myself about.  There are many times I just look at the sfc & upper air analysis and physically draw what that look should lead to in terms of feature placements.  I do think the pattern layout described in your post above certainly is not one usually favorable for a warm front to bodily rush across SNE.   But skies have really cleared out of all most all of CT, as well as southeastern NY, temps are rising quickly across western CT, but the rich dew points are still sitting down across portions of eastern PA/NJ.  Certainly not a classic summertime warm front passage?  Southeastern NY and western / southwestern CT were my main concern area and that continues.  The increasing sunshine across CT may open the door to the threat migrating into central CT, as well as the greater Springfield area, but dew points really need to get going. Noted SPC is yet to issue a MCD for this afternoon, which tells me they are not as bullish right now, even though their updated outlook remains mostly unchanged. 

yeah...and in the defense of the world that exists outside my skull I do tend to come off heavy handed with principles of Met and that probably rubs folks the wrong way ...

heh, gee ..ya think ? 

anyway if the sun comes out and can diabatically heat; that can aid in warm frontal leaps ... right on! However, part of that successful leaping means the DPs actually have to come with it. Without them, it's really just a lucky sunny interval in an otherwise cold butt plugged typical New England stew - 

which frankly, I'm inclined to think that's how this results... Also in that as we type, that line is plugging SE and will prooobaby ( I'm guessing ) denature the atmosphere to a swath of low clouds afterward. 

I can't wait until tomorrow... The NAM has 30 to 40% ceiling level RH over the region at 8am ...with offshore flow at 850s supporting about 83 F ... totally different day 

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26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

WF through TAN.  SW winds now and up to 72F

Nah...that doesn't mean the warm front is through there... 

Side's WPC doesn't agree - 

90fwbg.gif

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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

81/69 here western new haven county. 

I took my usual 3 minute walk to the gas station during lunch in Branford...when I came outside I noticed an uptick in humidity....although it could also be going from the freaking ice box the gas station was to the much warmer outdoors :lol: 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I took my usual 3 minute walk to the gas station during lunch in Branford...when I came outside I noticed an uptick in humidity....although it could also be going from the freaking ice box the gas station was to the much warmer outdoors :lol: 

Definitely more humid over here in Salem compared to just 2 hours ago when I was outside with the doggo.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The present linear complex pressing quickly SE through upstate NY should put the k-bosh on this for good... 

It's got some pricey DBZ returns along the axis but nothing triggering warnings ... It clearly also is terminating into an overrunning synoptic plug with crumbled elevated convection kernels to offer pulses of heavier rain in side a light to moderate for a couple of hours.   But I'm not even sure the western end of the line outside that shield is really in a warm sector...  Anyway, it should cool the BL further and that's the ball-game

Beautiful music to my ears. 

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