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wxeyeNH

Hurricane Isaias

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Toss the 80-90. I think we need a lot to go right to mix 60mph down...maybe your elevation helps. But I'm worried about not getting fully into the warm sector and having a bit of cool taint to affect the mixing potential. I'm on the 45-50mph train for most with isolated spots of 50mph+.

Looks like the 12z NAM is coming in with the LLJ a bit more east of the 6z run.

Brian,  does the LLJ being a bit more east bring stronger winds into Central NH?

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Underwhelming winds across the delmarva. Many people wondering when the storm is arriving and it's passed already...where have we seen this before?... :D

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8 minutes ago, cut said:

Yup - I was just going to post suns coming out in Trumbull.

Same thing up here in the Worcester area (the sun is trying its best). Nothing like another Orlando morning this summer!

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Sit back folks and let it play out, It is what it is, Should always error on the side of caution.

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14 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Suns out here as well....Rogue Tor signatures popping up in PA as we speak, impressive ones as well showing up off the Jersey Shore. 

I think these early tor warned cells are more associated with convection running up and over the top of the book-end frontal boundary that was, as of 13:31 still draiped west to east ...sort of "frontalysis" in nature ..through the area.  They were potent with high end DBZ ongoing ... but waited/rather suddenly tripped tor warning when they were roughly between the Pike and Rt 2

image.thumb.png.2a5448f16f57ac16765aba6f455780d1.png

And below this residual boundary the skies are brightening like a proper warm sector would...  

There's some quasi behavior though - this TC is going to be "latching" onto these frontal structure as it natively acquires more and more transitioning to baroclinic physics, and you can kinda .. sorta see how it becomes "like" a standard cyclone and that frontal fragment over SNE would become the warm frontal arm??   

Well, warm fronts have nearly ideal helicity profiles... and those cells speed bumping over that shear profile might have caused their updrafts to close off

 

Just a hypothesis... Because for one, they are too far removed from the TC to really be part of it's specific forcing. 

You didn't ask...I'm just offering up this analysis to everyone and using your post as a launch :) 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice. Keep the gusts under 60 and we’ll be fine. Just have to avoid any nados now. 

Chill Luke...these usually always under impress. I wouldn’t be too worried at the moment.  You know your weather...you’ll know if it takes a violent turn. 

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

That you were thinking higher end but probably read it wrong lol 

Sorry to "test case" you - 

but, I was testing to see how this stuff is read/comprehended - 

It's not a knock on you or any one person.  I could probably use a bit of audience sensitivity too - 

But, I think there's too much posting and too much stimulus and people in general, we can't process the information "correctly" ...instead, take a riskier assessment of what is actually said by focusing on key words perhaps...  

Like that sentence I just wrote.  There is a double entendre there:  one, there is a socio-technological commentary about the state of civility as a consequence in how all this social media and informatica is a motivational force... at the same time, it espouses some smoldering resentment that such "art" gets lost, and the artist suffers for trying - in lieu of immediate gratification.. blah blah

It's everywhere in western ethos.  And it's worsening with the simultaneously expose tsunamis that is being delivered at a faster right than people can lucidly and responsible categorize and appropriately evaluate - it's like an information shock... It's a fascinating premise for a Cyber Punk Sci-Fi novel - 

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks that way.. giving it a couple more hours until I'm  all in.. 

Smart. Me too.   We’ll see by noon how it all looks?  

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Wow...we're now looking at 200 J of 3km CAPE with forecasts upward of 225J now.. Getting sufficient breaks of sun too...while mlvl lapse rates are garbage dews in the mid-to-upper 70's will drive CAPE even further. MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG with effective helicity approaching 200+ m2s2. Violent tornado parameter as high as 5-6 to our southwest. llvl jet ramping up over CT over the next few hours. This is going to be ugly later

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow...we're now looking at 200 J of 3km CAPE with forecasts upward of 225J now.. Getting sufficient breaks of sun too...while mlvl lapse rates are garbage dews in the mid-to-upper 70's will drive CAPE even further. MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG with effective helicity approaching 200+ m2s2. Violent tornado parameter as high as 5-6 to our southwest. llvl jet ramping up over CT over the next few hours. This is going to be ugly later

You think that level of severity gets into Most of CT? 

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