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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We knew this, and still even cut back the gust potential is high end for our area.

Should have cut back 50% or more.  In my experience, wind products are always overdone outside shorelines, exposed terrain, and with convection.  That said, the backside of this is gonna be gusty.  

Surface wind is a very local phenomenon.  Models lack both the vertical and horizontal resolution to resolve it.  And the resulting averaging overestimates winds in areas not prone to it.

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5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Winds are impressive today.  But clearly some of the really big wind numbers on yesterday's ECM and UK products were overdone.

wind products on these models are almost always over done-reduce by 25 to even 50%

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13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We knew this, and still even cut back the gust potential is high end for our area.

Yes... but LI-yours is to come now.  If you get to 65-68 kt in a few places.. i consider that a hit on 24 hours notice. Let's see what happens.

 

In the meantime... there will be maybe a 1 hour lull when the wind shifts from south to sw, then blasts for 30 minutes out of the west 45-55kt, before the wind abruptly drops off. Used the experience of platforms in DE. 

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Should have cut back 50% or more.  In my experience, wind products are always overdone outside shorelines, exposed terrain, and with convection.  That said, the backside of this is gonna be gusty.  

We did cut it back 50%, and it still gives us 40-50kts :rolleyes:

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In most of NJ, rain underperformed but wind and isolated severe have mostly delivered as expected.  The past hour has really felt like a tropical storm.

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2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Confirmed 109mph wind gust at Long Beach Island weather station. This accured during severe cell maybe a tornado

Almost certainly a tornado.  Was pretty clear on radar and eyewitness accounts.

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Just heard it from Jeff Smith meteorologist on channel 7. This is a weather station and it is confirmed

Could that be related to an earlier tornado?

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

In most of NJ, rain underperformed but wind and isolated severe have mostly delivered as expected.  The past hour has really felt like a tropical storm.

Not under performing here. 

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Confirmed 109mph wind gust at Long Beach Island weather station. This accured during severe cell maybe a tornado

 

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Not under performing here. 

Thank you... i saw the 95 kt but didn't take the time to look back at detail. Has to be massive problem near that station. Would like to know. 

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8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Confirmed 109mph wind gust at Long Beach Island weather station. This accured during severe cell maybe a tornado

000
WTNT64 KNHC 041557
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1200 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER 
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...


A Weatherflow weather station at Long Beach Island Surf, New Jersey, 
recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 
59 mph (94 km/h).

Around 1053 AM EDT, this same weather observing station measured a 
wind gust of 109 mph (176 km/h), which was associated with a 
tornadic thunderstorm. Doppler weather radar data from Ft. Dix, New 
Jersey, indicated Doppler velocities as high as 112 mph (180 km/h) 
at an altitude of 1,590 above ground level at this same location. 
However, this wind is not considered to be representative of 
Isaias' larger wind field.

Also, a Weatherflow observing site located at Rutgers/Little Egg 
Harbor, New Jersey, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph 
(84 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 75.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

What do you have in the bucket?

I'm at work and without a gauge, but it's been pouring non stop for over an hour and radar estimates are well over an inch.

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