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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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On 7/31/2020 at 8:01 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

The hurricanes in 1635, 1667,1693 and 1788 may have been major hurricanes. And a close miss in 1869. Others of interest are the 2 hurricanes in 1815 and the hurricane in 1849.

I was reading an old weather book a few years ago, so I may have the year wrong, but it stated that there was a hurricane in early October 1804 (Cat 2- but it stated F2 for some reason), that dropped snow in Boston and sleet in NYC with temps in the 30s.  The storm basically bisected LI and CT.

 

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Interesting track...... guys, look up Bertha 1996.  This one might have a track similar to that one.....65 mph TS when it made landfall near JFK.  The track is close enough to the ocean for it not to weaken rapidly, plus its speed up the coast will help it maintain its structure up here.

 

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Satellite imagery shows the center is on eastern edge of the cone. Correct me if I'm wrong. 

Yep, especially the European has been too far west with this consistently ever since it said it was going to make LF in South Florida.  This will probably make landfall near Cape Fear like Bertha 1996 did and track up to western LI at a similar intensity.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, especially the European has been too far west with this consistently ever since it said it was going to make LF in South Florida.  This will probably make landfall near Cape Fear like Bertha 1996 did and track up to western LI at a similar intensity.

 

 

Western LI isn’t a little East that’s Way East then any model I think maybe nyc or just west 

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8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Western LI isn’t a little East that’s Way East then any model I think maybe nyc or just west 

I’d rather take the 2-4” of rain over the maybe 70mph winds so it can keep drifting East, please. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

quick hitter on the nam-precip is done by 7-8pm tomorrow eve

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_30.png

This was always was a fast mover I don’t think anyone is shocked by that 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam barely has any rain for the city east 

classic east of track situation like we saw with Fay

3K NAM is even further west with the 2 inch rain line over the Delaware River and west

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watching local tv weather future cast the city gets one good band mid day and that is it the storm is over by 6-700 pm .. lucky to get a inch for the city.. if that future cast is accurate..

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

watching local tv weather future cast the city gets one good band mid day and that is it the storm is over by 6-700 pm .. lucky to get a inch for the city.. if that future cast is accurate..

LOL

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2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

watching local tv weather future cast the city gets one good band mid day and that is it the storm is over by 6-700 pm .. lucky to get a inch for the city.. if that future cast is accurate..

Fay was like that east of the city-one firehose band and that was it....

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You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

Any wobble can have a big effect on the path 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

You cannot expect models to pick up on the nuances of what's going to happen. Either way, with the center passing overhead or just West, we've known for awhile the biggest threat was the wind, not the rain.

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1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

not saying the nam isnt wrong but isnt it not a good model for tropical weather?

FYP

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2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

not saying the nam isnt wrong but isnt it not a good model for tropical weather?

interestingly the 3K nam was one of the few models to show a miss to Florida's east coast.    

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

interestingly the 3K nam was one of the few models to show a miss to Florida's east coast.    

A broken clock is right twice a day.

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