Tropical Storm Fay

[lee59]

Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

Yeah, clearly subtropical but good storm regardless. 

[lee59]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, clearly subtropical but good storm regardless. 

Yeah, I agree.

[purduewx80]

hey look, a couple of internet dweebs questioning globally-recognized scientists on a weather forum. 

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

 

16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, clearly subtropical but good storm regardless. 

 

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yeah, I agree.

 

[lee59]

The center of the low will be making its closest pass to me between now and the next hour or two. Still getting some squally weather with decent wind gusts.

[psv88]

3800 without power on the island 

[doncat]

Small diurnal temp range today...76/72....Highest gust at nearby mesonet looks to be 35mph.

[MJO812]

Over 2 inches of rain here today in Brooklyn

[mgerb]

3 hours ago, Animal said:

Update

1.1 of rain

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

[FPizz]

2.61"

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

2 stations that I see on weather underground have 2.57 and 2.68 in highland lakes.  I know those aren't perfect though. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

Typically you'll find max gusts matching the projected sustained winds of landfalling systems.  There were a couple of reports of 57 mph gusts along the Jersey shore, one in southern Monmouth county and another one in Southern NJ near Cape May.  That's close enough to the 60 mph projected sustained winds.

 

[Irishmick9]

29 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

I am in the valley about 4 min from Mountain Creek and I had 2.15

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

hey look, a couple of internet dweebs questioning globally-recognized scientists on a weather forum. 

 

 

 

LOL see my post just above (well there's one in between.)  Things like the above stick in my mind and from memory I can recall that at landfall the max gusts reported often match up with the projected sustained winds at landfall.  So there's no reason for anyone to be "suspicious" of the 60 mph sustained wind report, the two reports of 57 mph gusts on the Jersey shore back that up.

Back to current conditions, out here in the Poconos we have a flash flood warning extended to 1:30 AM DOT has shut down major roads and is warning people not to go outside.  Rain is still falling pretty hard here, might get 3-4" at this rate by the time it's done.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

hey look, a couple of internet dweebs questioning globally-recognized scientists on a weather forum. 

 

 

 

You think this is bad?  You should see what they say to climate scientists on Twitter....it's utterly embarrassing (for them).

 

[SnoSki14]

Fay was basically a moderate summer coastal storm in terms of impacts. 

Nothing too memorable though we did get a period of very heavy rains and wind. Hopefully a precursor to something bigger in August/September.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Fay was basically a moderate summer coastal storm in terms of impacts. 

Nothing too memorable though we did get a period of very heavy rains and wind. Hopefully a precursor to something bigger in August/September.

A real tropical system (although may have been more hybrid in the end) making landfall in NJ is quite notable anytime, particularly in the 1st half of July. Thankfully it was a home grown development that just blew up last night and small in size, not a huge system like Irene or Sandy that would've caused big surge flooding. On the east side LI would've gotten hit much worse in that case. This was something like a 12/30/00 of tropical systems. 

I'll be honest that it was a decent wind event but overall lame where I am. Max here I'd say was about 40mph, there's some small branches/twigs on my street. A little over 0.6" at FRG (closest station to me) and ISP, 40-50 mph gusts if you were lucky, and the heavy rain lasting maybe an hour other than showers here and there with no severe that I know of on the east side was a letdown. NYC, NJ and western Nassau did well but models generally did have the good rain extending further east than what ended up happening. Consensus still did have the western half of Suffolk getting to maybe 1.5". Those lame HRRR runs and couple of GFS, NAM runs ended up being right. Don't want to say a bust on the rain, but.... The east side of a tropical system up here is nowhere to be if you want good rain (Other than Irene-it tracked just west of me in Long Beach and I still had over 5" of rain). The track ended up being just west of the NHC path as well, went almost due north from where it formed instead of NNE. The ground will be baked in a couple days again with the 90+ heat incoming. 

[jm1220]

And even in the summer we're still cursed with the "last second west trend". Argh. 

[Allsnow]

2.47

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.43" of rain from Fay.

[wdrag]

Wantage (southern part) only 1.93. Beneficial: have reviewed a few posts on this particular page of FAY and appreciate the comments, especially data nw NJ.  The radar estimates to me appear to be too low. Appears to me USA models + GGEM generally out performed EC and especially UK on track/rainfall expectations.  A decent winter-like nor'easter in subtropical environment. Have one 4a-4a QPF map... and will add an update for entire forum area around 11A.  In the meantime, max gusts per OKX to supplement earlier max gusts posted on this thread. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

and last evenings rainfall totals for the OKX area:  https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202007102343-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

PHI rainfall totals as of just before midnight. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

 

[tim]

...no big whoop out here.

KFOK reported 0.05" of rain.. montauk reported 0.04" of rain..

gotta agree with those #'s..

not much rain here in Eastport either..

[wxallannj]

3.31"  here in Clifton

[lee59]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Typically you'll find max gusts matching the projected sustained winds of landfalling systems.  There were a couple of reports of 57 mph gusts along the Jersey shore, one in southern Monmouth county and another one in Southern NJ near Cape May.  That's close enough to the 60 mph projected sustained winds.

 

The only problem with that is there is a big difference between maximum gusts and sustained winds. Look I don't want to sound like I didn't think it was a good storm or that I don't trust the NHC.  I just think they are pretty liberal in naming storms these days compared to the past. There is no doubt in my mind that the NHC, when it comes to tracking these storms, has improved dramatically over years ago.

[Animal]

Storm total 1.3

 

[Animal]

Saw philly airport over 4 inches!

[Animal]

10 hours ago, mgerb said:

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

1.3 final...maybe rain was harder locally etc

[Snowshack]

13 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Nothing burger in Wading River.

Occasional squalls when a band moves through. 

Occasional sun. 

Mainly just fast moving clouds and some wind.

Water is a bit odd. Swells from the NE. Wind from the SE. The effect on moored boats is to be pushed off short to the NW yet get a broadside slam from the east. 

 

.35” total up the road from you.  Too bad, could have used a good soaking.  

[Allsnow]

Solid storm. It did enough tree damage around town to make a impact. It was cool watching the circulation pass over head on radar.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A real tropical system (although may have been more hybrid in the end) making landfall in NJ is quite notable anytime, particularly in the 1st half of July. Thankfully it was a home grown development that just blew up last night and small in size, not a huge system like Irene or Sandy that would've caused big surge flooding. On the east side LI would've gotten hit much worse in that case. This was something like a 12/30/00 of tropical systems. 

I'll be honest that it was a decent wind event but overall lame where I am. Max here I'd say was about 40mph, there's some small branches/twigs on my street. A little over 0.6" at FRG (closest station to me) and ISP, 40-50 mph gusts if you were lucky, and the heavy rain lasting maybe an hour other than showers here and there with no severe that I know of on the east side was a letdown. NYC, NJ and western Nassau did well but models generally did have the good rain extending further east than what ended up happening. Consensus still did have the western half of Suffolk getting to maybe 1.5". Those lame HRRR runs and couple of GFS, NAM runs ended up being right. Don't want to say a bust on the rain, but.... The east side of a tropical system up here is nowhere to be if you want good rain (Other than Irene-it tracked just west of me in Long Beach and I still had over 5" of rain). The track ended up being just west of the NHC path as well, went almost due north from where it formed instead of NNE. The ground will be baked in a couple days again with the 90+ heat incoming. 

If you noticed the rainfall and wind patterns with Sandy, there were some similarities with Fay (on a much smaller scale.)  Like you said, because of its much smaller size, there wasn't a surge component, but we knew that wasn't going to happen from the beginning. As far as rainfall and wind, the similar tracks the two shared (going into Atlantic City) placed the heaviest rainfall in Delaware in both cases and in both cases the effects were strongest from Nassau County westward.  Fay produced about half the rainfall and half the winds that Sandy had (which means in reality it was only 1/4 as strong, and that's before accounting for its much smaller size.)  Neither Sandy nor Fay produced as much tropical storm effects from Suffolk County northeastward.  I've always maintained that Suffolk County has much more of a New England climate (this holds true both in the winter and summer) and the storms that are most likely to affect them also affect Boston.  The storms that affect NYC and Nassau County the strongest belong to a different class altogether- the Midatlantic group- which also affect Delaware and New Jersey.  During the 2010s and apparently going right into 2020 we've seen much more of the latter variety.   There are many other examples of this (again during both the summer and winter)- Sandy, the Millenium storm you referenced and of course the Snowicane in late February 2010 come to mind immediately.  Irene was also part of this pattern and I recall you were in Long Beach for that one.  That would have been a better place to be with this one also.  I expect this pattern to continue into the future with the much warmer sea surface temps we now have.

Now looking forward to hitting 100 degrees later next week in this eventful and perhaps historic summer we have oncoming!