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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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Quick thought on TD 19... 

Katrina sends messages from the grave not to count on southern Florida's interesting geology to be as inhibitory as the standard decay/inhibition forcing that occurs when TCs encounter land.

Few may recall... Katrina actually maintained intensity and then gained 10kts of velocity strength prior to even leaving the southern Penn en route to the Loop Current ...  That region is flat, and the ground is humid with deep soil moisture and most importantly, is not larger than the circulation domain of the cyclone, so arms and inflow jets can still access some latent heat source... particularly if TD 19 were to stay S of Miam and only partially eclipse ..

I'm curious if this one may gain enough strength/momentum like Katrina did to withstand Florida's southern flat wet hot land... heh

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Quick thought on TD 19... 

Katrina sends messages from the grave not to count on southern Florida's interesting geology to be as inhibitory as the standard decay/inhibition forcing that occurs when TCs encounter land.

Few may recall... Katrina actually maintained intensity and then gained 10kts of velocity strength prior to even leaving the southern Penn en route to the Loop Current ...  That region is flat, and the ground is humid with deep soil moisture and most importantly, is not larger than the circulation domain of the cyclone, so arms and inflow jets can still access some latent heat source... particularly if TD 19 were to stay S of Miam and only partially eclipse ..

I'm curious if this one may gain enough strength/momentum like Katrina did to withstand Florida's southern flat wet hot land... heh

We have a TS watch here now and breezy/squally at the moment. One other trait S FL offers from South of Lake Okeechobee is the moist Everglades and depending how hot and wet if a summer we have had it can be a great potential fuel source for TC

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Can't say I blame TPC for any reticence to pull the trigger on 95 L ... despite the fact that it presently can be objectively characterized as having a coherently closed circulation ... whirling around at some 40 kts!  It's hard to tout a TC that's not even wearing a bikini bottom -

There's yet again ... a sputtering problem - not just with this feature, across the whole Basin.

It's funny that despite all peregrinations to date, as well as having endured the lies of various zealous guidance - take your pick .. they're all guilty at one cycle run or another - giving rise to said posting exuberance ... we find our selves right back here where we all started 2 weeks ago:  sputtering as a plague that never went away. 

This season's just challenged severely at maintaining cohesive TC integrity ... we've developed one - it's really quite remarkable we had a major at all frankly. 

We'll see what would-be "Sally" can do.  Since we've already endured a major category system closer to the Americas there may be some argument for precedence ...that we are escaping mitigation west of .. oh 70 W or so.  But out there in the MDR... it's been a raging easterly shear anomaly the whole time it seems.  It's like there is an actual jet stream, just like we observe in the W-E latitudes of the westerlies, but fire hosing E-W over 20 N amid the MDR.    Don't get me started on why that is doing that... I have plenty of sci-fi writing skills and can root it enough real plausibility -

Anyway, I am also taking note that we've lost the favorable hemispheric -scaled VV potential ... Despite the current MJO wave lacking significant coherence, the VVP found here,

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml

shows DVM flashed over the Basin ...which I have found to reasonably well correlate not so much to specific TCs, but as a development indicator. 

I am wondering if this may be related to why the recent modeling trends have sort of abandoned the activity rather abruptly over the last couple of days. The GGEM ..which is a trigger happy guidance to begin with, all but attempts to shut the season down recently. ... but all the guidance are backing off. The 00z Euro is definitely not nearly as emphatic with anything after going forward - completely discontinuing like a cruel social-media ghosting -

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Looks like a SE swell begins Sunday w occasional waist high sets and may peak Tuesday in RI this week with OH sets , just eyeballing things .

Too bad the recurve didn’t occur after like a day of due N movement 

Hopefully the MDR produces another one after that ...looks like the angle could produce fairly well for ESE prone locales (SE NH /Outer cape/ Maine

 

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Paulette may not be done in the Basin .. 

some guidance’ perform a galaxy loop and hint zenith moving back S around 45W. Heh

18z guidance might be an early attempt at left correction just beginning there wet TD20 but we kind of saw that yesterday on the 18 and then abruptly it went the other way at 00 so we’ll see
 

All models definitely make it a formidable cane though

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well...sure - we pretty much beat the ACE proof to death 45 days ago as a suspicion, and went on to substantiate it two weeks back - yup.

Sally may RI here over the next several hours. 

Now .. I am not sitting in that scene where is NHC's spectacle of elaborate displays, replete with super-ensemble guided extra double top secret AI techniques at my disposal .. but just the coarser products available to the plebeian hoi polloi ( us ) all indicate Sally suddenly earning some 4 to 6 new pressure contours in the closing frames just before stuffing her way down the gullet of the Mississippi's mouth ... Hope it tastes good NOLA!   

I wonder if there is a 'RI model' ??   Last I knew there's not much that is well enough understood about the exact triggering kinematics for why some systems go ahead and implode their pressure wells, when other systems in seemingly identically favorable circumstances ( ...heh, like the entire 2020 season ) don't. 

But here with Sally, it seems to me that outlow is suddenly expanding rather nicely around the western semi-circle ... with those radial striations evident that morph when cloud patterns start getting 'stretched' outward.   Meanwhile, hot towers are clearly tapped into the supreme thermal sourcing ... being that they are clearly halfway to the moon in elevation. 

Since the models were tree-ringing this bitch from about this point in time going forward through the next 18 hours anyway, and these evidences are now emerging ..they sort of support one another. I don't like 90 F water with shear dropping below 10 kts while models are showing that pressure evolution - they are not RI models... perhaps they are physically detecting without discretely constructing deeper system.

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