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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And we say time and time again the algorithms use awful calculations. Ryan said he has 30-40 inland and 40-55 on S coast. I could see some 60mph gusts too.

We have watched the Euro gust maps with these southerly event storms and they have performed pretty damn good. Those maps are not any different from what Ryan said. When you see Euro soundings like this you need to raise HWW pretty far inland.

Screenshot_20200803-085430_Thermometer.jpg

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And we say time and time again the algorithms use awful calculations. Ryan said he has 30-40 inland and 40-55 on S coast. I could see some 60mph gusts too.

idk...this looks legit

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020080300_54_476_379.png

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We have watched the Euro gust maps with these southerly event storms and they have performed pretty damn good. Those maps are not any different from what Ryan said. When you see Euro soundings like this you need to raise HWW pretty far inland.

Screenshot_20200803-085430_Thermometer.jpg

Agree. I think 50-60mph will be achieved all of CT with ease and you’ll get some 70 mph gusts in severe cells 

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This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. 

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Getting a little concerned about the tornado potential in CT tomorrow...models are spitting out quite a bit of CAPE...especially within the lowest 3km. NAM bufkit soundings showing >300 J of 3km CAPE and over 1000 J of 6km CAPE...those are quite high given the amount of shear. I'll also add this...we may see llvl lapse rates steep enough to where these winds can certainly overperform...especially with any convective elements. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. 

Like the side of your explorer after taking Kevin home from the bar.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. 

Too bad you spiked so early Saturday. Now you gotta go down with that ship.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. 

Exactly ...my sentiments.  I am not sure what those modeling/wind products are based upon - I assume some sort of raw gridded imputs off the various sigma levels, then adiabats as a start... blah blah... but you just get the "feel" looking that decompressing pressure pattern and losing standard intervals so rapidly in many guidances ( not to mention, that behavior fits this system's history)... while only being 990-ish in the first place.  I've seen people play Golf with wind prospects like that.  

I joked last night that this thing might glide over like a decoupled/detached see-through frisbie ...  It floats over head and people look around vaguely aware for hearing it go by -

I don't know...right now it's a busted blown out ravioli ... In fact, though it is probably just an artifice of hiding in the hi res vis loops, it almost appeals at that vaneer like the SW quadrant isn't even closing into the arc anymore.  This system is a single curve wind band on the NE quad... just at first glance. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Too bad you spiked so early Saturday. Now you gotta go down with that ship.

So you're on board today? Nice...that's 2 days in a row. You've been alternating daily for the last 5 days.

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Just now, dendrite said:

So you're on board today? Nice...that's 2 days in a row. You've been alternating daily for the last 5 days.

Go back and check . I’ve been on this tracking west with wind being the issue. I said rain would be well west and that was not a threat . While a couple mets said this would trend East and would be no wind . We tried to tell em.

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If I had to guess, I think CT probably has the best chance of winds in the srn part of the state vs rest of region. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, the official guidance designation is over land ... at our latitude ?! 

Guys, do yourselves a favor - don't post

It’s transitioning to ET. Will be totally ET and is phasing with the trough. You’ll be wishing you didn’t make these posts lol

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I had to guess, I think CT probably has the best chance of winds in the srn part of the state vs rest of region. 

Could be a couple of good gusts on Tolland since they mix out so well and torch easily on S winds. 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s transitioning to ET. Will be totally ET and is phasing with the trough. You’ll be wishing you didn’t make these posts lol

DIT phone home
4190B558-A53F-4FC2-9261-321E097FBB6B.gif

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Too bad you spiked so early Saturday. Now you gotta go down with that ship.

 I’ll be tracking the Tolland stem wind gusts with bated breath. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I had to guess, I think CT probably has the best chance of winds in the srn part of the state vs rest of region. 

BDR and GON are pretty exposed. They might have some ok gusts. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m curious. What’s your wind forecast for CT?

It definitely looks breezy for a period down there...especially the southern counties. But sorry...this isn’t “the one” for you. 

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Tropical or not the main threat in CT is the LLJ and any mixing down of those gusts. Every model this morning has that jet maxing out close by. 

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Isaias looked better last night, It's been a constant battle with this cyclone fighting wind shear and dry air which looks to still be the case again this morning.

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Mm.. in terms of "relative error" ..I'd have to give the nod to the Euro tho - so far and overall 

The NAVGEM - which ...shouldn't exist as a "model" ...but just to make the point - has had a couple runs into the Category 2 range of EC abrasion all the way up. Which is intuitively laughable anyway, but using that as the upper bound... the Euro on the other hand, while being just an open wave at times taking this into the Gulf Of Mexico, does sort of win by virtue of just being weak in over all integrity ... This thing has had a low shear, high oceanic heat content since it was 800 mi E of the Windward Isles ...and it's just coughed like an old Jalopy all the way up ... Sometimes these things take a bit of reanalysis to figure out -  

Whatever the reason, the Euro seems to get credit in my mind for general reticence to commit to this thing... 

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Isaias looked better last night, It's been a constant battle with this cyclone fighting wind shear and dry air which looks to still be the case again this morning.

Knock down those rain totals I guess

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Isaias looked better last night, It's been a constant battle with this cyclone fighting wind shear and dry air which looks to still be the case again this morning.

Yeah Isis not looking so good. 

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