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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shall I literally post his text? That’s what he said verbatim . You saw it 

Pretty pumped?   GFS has 50-60 gusts..hopefully it is right.

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I stayed up for the Euro for the 1st time this season. Feels like tracking a winte storm

12z tropical models shifted slightly west

09L_tracks_latest (1).png

  • Weenie 2

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin putting words into Ryan's mouth.

lol no kidding. If this goes too far west I'd be worried about missing out on rain. 

Do think there's a risk for some tornadoes east of the storm's path and at least some gusty wind particularly south coast. Not a huge storm but may be fun for some. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

lol no kidding. If this goes too far west I'd be worried about missing out on rain. 

Do think there's a risk for some tornadoes east of the storm's path and at least some gusty wind particularly south coast. Not a huge storm but may be fun for some. 

That's how I feel. Seems like river east a wind threat. I guess it depends how this thing does from now until the next landfall in the Carolinas.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's how I feel. Seems like river east a wind threat. I guess it depends how this thing does from now until the next landfall in the Carolinas.

It also has to strengthen some. A 1002 mb low over BDR isn't going to be very exciting.

If the UKMet is right with something in the mid 980s then we'll have more of an opportunity for fun. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's how I feel. Seems like river east a wind threat. I guess it depends how this thing does from now until the next landfall in the Carolinas.

You’re a hard read these days, haha.  

Zzzzzz or yawns with maybe a wind threat and isolated tornadoes.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You’re a hard read these days, haha.  

Zzzzzz or yawns with maybe a wind threat and isolated tornadoes.

It's still pretty meh. The wind threat is up in the air depending on intensity.  The rain will be well west in NY state. I'd feel a lot better with an organized Cat 1 east of FL, but instead it contracted COVID-19 in FL. 

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

lol no kidding. If this goes too far west I'd be worried about missing out on rain. 

Do think there's a risk for some tornadoes east of the storm's path and at least some gusty wind particularly south coast. Not a huge storm but may be fun for some. 

That's more or less where I am. If this landfalls near Wilmington I think we're in the game for something relatively interesting. If its a Euro track up through SC it's probably too far west for rain and too weak for good wind along the coast. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's how I feel. Seems like river east a wind threat. I guess it depends how this thing does from now until the next landfall in the Carolinas.

That's why I haven't really punted yet. As you could see on the 06z Euro, there's a window for some intensification. If this is further east, there's more time for something decent to develop and head this way. Otherwise, we yawn together as the Mid-Atlantic cashes in again. 

There's a lot of ifs in there though. That almost always tells you where you stand. 

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You’re a hard read these days, haha.  

Between the heat, drought, and lack of storms, it has been a grueling summer :lol: 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's more or less where I am. If this landfalls near Wilmington I think we're in the game for something relatively interesting. If its a Euro track up through SC it's probably too far west for rain and too weak for good wind along the coast. 

That's why I haven't really punted yet. As you could see on the 06z Euro, there's a window for some intensification. If this is further east, there's more time for something decent to develop and head this way. Otherwise, we yawn together as the Mid-Atlantic cashes in again. 

There's a lot of ifs in there though. That almost always tells you where you stand. 

Between the heat, drought, and lack of storms, it has been a grueling summer :lol: 

The heat has been good, but otherwise extremely boring. Tired of watering.

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I posted that in the main thread. I thought it was trying to redevelop last night but it didn't. Not sure if it will now. The recon today was more compelling but we need to see more I think. 

Even if it does redevelop, shear is going to make it hard for anything but burst/pulse type intensification. I guess a further east redevelop helps with the eventual track. I think we need it further east to have a shot at anything decent. One thing that keeps me on board a bit is a tweet from one of those tropical guys showing 250mb shear relaxing a bit later today. If there's a redevelopment and if that shear decreases, we could have a greater window for organization. 

Again...a lot of ifs...

This is one of the tougher short term tropical forecasts I've seen. 

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I just want some rain.

Me too.   I'm in a better position than you.  I don't care about a few 35mph gusts just a 3" soak.   I'm excited for that but some of the trends are so far west it may be VT/NY.

It would be interesting if Isaias could relocate under convection.  Then the center has a much better chance of staying offshore and a stronger storm

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