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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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With recent wet trend in a good part of SNE, do we have the making here of summer flooding event? I know recent storms have not been wide spread but areas like the Rt 146 corridor south or ORH and Norwood were hard hit Recently.

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Tropics looking pretty open for business as the AEW starts cranking come early August in addition to what's already out there now. ECMWF spaghettios is pretty eye opening for the first week of next month. Things are shaping up to be a pretty wild year, lets see if we can get a storm to finally swing up our way. 

EuroSpag.jpeg

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1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Tropics looking pretty open for business as the AEW starts cranking come early August in addition to what's already out there now. ECMWF spaghettios is pretty eye opening for the first week of next month. Things are shaping up to be a pretty wild year, lets see if we can get a storm to finally swing up our way. 

EuroSpag.jpeg

Many mets and folks here have been saying a 38 type cane is coming this fall. Let’s do it!

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1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Tropics looking pretty open for business as the AEW starts cranking come early August in addition to what's already out there now. ECMWF spaghettios is pretty eye opening for the first week of next month. Things are shaping up to be a pretty wild year, lets see if we can get a storm to finally swing up our way. 

EuroSpag.jpeg

Just looking at that distribution, that doesn’t particularly look favorable for our neck of the woods. Obviously that far out things will change. 

We’ll see if we have some chances during the peak..

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just looking at that distribution, that doesn’t particularly look favorable for our neck of the woods. Obviously that far out things will change. 

We’ll see if we have some chances during the peak..

Pattern looks ripe I think

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

Pattern looks ripe I think

It’s just so delicate for us. I mean look at what happened with Fay. Trended west toward NJ late. I know I’m overdoing it, but I almost need to see it coming up the coast to feel good about a SNE strike. 

Feels much easier to lock in for a SE strike. Just need to plant a ridge over the top. Different up here. I do agree though that we seem more ripe this year given the current dominant wx pattern. 

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9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if we may pull a 55 type year with a Connie and Diane. What the first doesn’t take down, the second does kind of thing 

This is more plausible than 1938 walking through the door. What is the last CAT 2 or 3 storm to hit New England?

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8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

This is more plausible than 1938 walking through the door. What is the last CAT 2 or 3 storm to hit New England?

Maybe Bob in '91? I'm not sure what category it was officially at landfall, but Block Island gusted to like 110 or 115.

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35 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Maybe Bob in '91? I'm not sure what category it was officially at landfall, but Block Island gusted to like 110 or 115.

Close, probably a little higher iirc. We gusted 120 in E Fal.

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Just now, Dr. Dews said:

Close, probably a little higher iirc. We gusted 120 in E Fal

Epic. The homeowner in me wishes to never see wind like that, but my inner weenie would give anything.

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8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Epic. The homeowner in me wishes to never see wind like that, but my inner weenie would give 

15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Epic. The homeowner in me wishes to never see wind like that, but my inner weenie would give anything.

 

I'll take excessive wind over rain. :D

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11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if we may pull a 55 type year with a Connie and Diane. What the first doesn’t take down, the second does kind of thing 

Not all that much blew down from those storms.  I'd guess than 98% of damage was from the epic flooding.  BDL had 21.3" RA that August, 4" from Connie and over 14" from Diane less than a week later.  Farther NW, Norfolk had 9" from Connie and nearly 13" from Diane.

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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Many mets and folks here have been saying a 38 type cane is coming this fall. Let’s do it!

 

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if we may pull a 55 type year with a Connie and Diane. What the first doesn’t take down, the second does kind of thing 

Why not both?

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

looks like we will have another system form in the gulf, but pretty weak.. not enough time to develop it seems.

It’s broad on the globals but I’d keep an eye on what recon finds. Visible loop kinda shows evidence of an LLC trying to form. Aside from a little easterly shear from an upper low, the Gulf has a conducive environment if 91L can organize quickly. Good convection this morning. 

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Mm.. wonder how these enhanced probability calls for a '38 type redux are rooted... 

I don't see it based upon super-synoptic hemispheric trends ... not even close.  

We have a central/mid-latitude CONUS ridge that keeps burgeoning and then sort of doing a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz tumble-over... evidenced in the counter-balanced tendency to dive the wind field through the Martimes. 

Proobably need to review a crucial conceptual point about entities in the atmosphere?   ... they move with the wind ... ;) 

What about that above seasonality persistence sends a category 3 cane up abeam the EC headed for deforestation of VT - 

Now, ... it's not IMpossible to have an anomaly relative to the persistence above ...set up just in time... Shit happens... But, it seems the longitudinal flow/progressivity in the means is both trend, and has planetary super-synoptic scale motivators for being that way... Namely, the expanded HC seems to be expressing this summer... It is making for increased ambient velocities at mid levels and that doesn't really physically support meridian flow structures - like placing a negative hydrostatic anomaly over WV and sucking a cane up toward or into the NY Bite... Just in short, a ridge axis 90 to 80W that is sharply ablating from the NW along and E of 70  ... even though the GFS does so too much... in a lesser variation of the GFS ...still deflects and hooks seaward N of the Del Marva

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Probably a broad LLC for 91L but easterly shear looks like an issue right now. Given how far along it apparently is right now it may be an overperformer candidate. We’ll see. The Gulf is warm to say the least and the western Gulf has a nice area of TCHP. 

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably a broad LLC for 91L but easterly shear looks like an issue right now. Given how far along it apparently is right now it may be an overperformer candidate. We’ll see. The Gulf is warm to say the least and the western Gulf has a nice area of TCHP. 

recon incoming

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