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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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next year is 11 years since the last hot summer in the 11 year hot summer cycle...if the cycle continues this year will be cooler than average...Next year is hot...the following year cooler again...

the summers before the 11 year hot summer cycle were much cooler on average...the year after the hot summers were also much cooler on average...the total 90 degree days were...

1899-1910-1921-1932-1943-1954-1965-1976-1987-1998-2009 averaged 15... 90 degree days...

1900-1911-1922-1933-1944-1955-1966-1977-1988-1999-2010 averaged 26....90 degree days...

1901-1912-1923-1934-1945-1956-1967-1978-1989-2000-2011 averaged 13....90 degree days...

1922 was the only year with less 90 degree days than the year before or after...

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NWS Mt.Holly ref: Wednesday thru Saturday.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
  Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western 
  Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the 
  Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This 
  complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through 
  Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front 
  bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The 
  temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of 
  these systems. 
   
  The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our 
  sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most 
  problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, 
  as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off 
  the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream 
  side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by 
  Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface 
  reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- 
  layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the 
  East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, 
  with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight 
  differences in the track of the system, and given the rather 
  compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will 
  be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current 
  thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of 
  precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- 
  average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when 
  analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source  
  region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect  
  into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday  
  afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the  
  stronger convective cores. 
   
  Preceding the weak Thursday system, surface flow will continue 
  to slowly veer to a more south-southeast direction. With 
  increasing boundary-layer dew points and a continued onshore 
  component, would expect another round of fog and/or low clouds 
  Wednesday night. 
   
  As might be guessed, the temperature forecast is a little 
  tricky, especially Thursday with the question marks regarding 
  precipitation coverage. Although I expect it to be seasonably 
  warm, the general trend was to nudge highs downward a bit. If 
  precipitation is lacking and/or periods of reduced cloud cover 
  occur, highs will be warmer than forecast. However, confidence 
  is not high enough to stray much warmer than consensus at this 
  point. 
   
  Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night 
  and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of 
  the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an 
  approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to 
  eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. 
  Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. 
  Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually 
  increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal 
  diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms 
  looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday 
  night with the approach of a strong cold front. The timing of 
  the front is still under debate, with the GFS noticeably slower 
  than the ECMWF/CMC. Tend to think a slower solution is more 
  probable, owing to the strength of downstream ridging. As such, 
  tended to keep PoPs a little bit higher than consensus on 
  Saturday, which has ensemble support. If the slower solutions 
  verify, Saturday would be another active convective day for 
  portions of the region (especially the southeastern CWA). 
   
  Severe storms are certainly possible on Friday and Saturday, 
  though ambient shear appears rather weak. Thus, coverage of  
  severe storms may be fairly sporadic/transient. Locally heavy 
  rainfall seems probable, particularly in areas of training 
  (slow-moving features in play), as PWs will remain rather high 
  (1.6-2.0 inches, generally). 
   
  As with Thursday, temperatures Friday and Saturday are a big 
  question mark, with cloud cover, precipitation coverage, and 
  frontal timing all playing roles in lowering confidence. Again, 
  with the expectation that precipitation coverage will be 
  sufficiently large, think that straying too far from guidance is 
  unwise at this point. 
   
  After the cold front passes through the region Saturday, 
  temperatures will fall below seasonal averages Sunday into the 
  following work week as a strong surface high builds into the 
  region. Another lengthy period of dry weather looks to occur as 
  well. 
   
  && 

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The last 6 days are averaging 68.5degs.,  or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.5[58.0].        May should end near  -2.2[60.2].

GFS OP continues with its barrage of 90's (shown since mid-May in each run) during the first 11 days of June and cuts it 69/86, just like mid July.       ENS does not go past 80* for the same period.

59* here at 6am(FOG<0.1 miles)    61* at 7am and variable Fog<1.0 mile.      62* at 8am and visibility almost 5 miles.      64* at 9am, haze, clouds.        Still 64* by Noon.

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40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thursday into Saturday look very wet to me 

Models have our first 70s dew points of the season. The clouds and heavy convection potential look like limiting factors on the the high temperatures. Would probably be an easy 90 with enough sun and +16-+17C 850 MB temperatures.

E2710ABD-E6B0-4504-8A13-D840A957C496.gif.167948674d7ce16935b32cddffb30b71.gif

 

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models have our first 70s dew points of the season. The clouds and heavy convection potential look like limiting factors on the the high temperatures. Would probably be an easy 90 with enough sun and +16-+17C 850 MB temperatures.

E2710ABD-E6B0-4504-8A13-D840A957C496.gif.167948674d7ce16935b32cddffb30b71.gif

 

High pwats? Better get those flash flood warnings ready Upton 

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Up to 76 yesterday with full sunshine by a little past 3pm.  Think we're sunnier sooner today and that is closer to noon/1pm today for most

So-Cal June-gloom pattern  - Marine layer burns off by early afternoon to bright sunshine and warm temps.  With any sun Thu - Fri could have been a contender.  Hung up front an issue with such a stagnant airmass and massive ridge nearby.  Beyond the strong cold front passing though (maybe slowly) and subsequent 2 day cooler temps (5/31-6/4)  it could be a more normal pattern with transient height rises followed by transient troughs/ showers and storms with no cool or warmth locking in during the 6/5 - mid June period. Warmer days should yield the first 90s but need to watch how wet we get too.   

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Nice day today 68 with some humidity and haze. Can’t wait for the hot and humid days. It’s going to happen once the cars are back on the road.

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Yikes!      88* in Albany at 3pm., and I have 66* with Fog that rolled in at 2:30pm---blocking out the clear blue sky.       

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Another 75 degree high today, cleared out much more quickly than yesterday though.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Glad we don’t live on Long Island! Absolutely beautiful outside 

It’s nice here too.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The cooler sst definitely playing a role 

Much more comfortable temperatures here with the onshore flow and SSTs in the low 50s. Still some fog hanging on at the beaches.

1DBB8741-DF5D-497C-BC43-02E27689E6E4.jpeg.116a378c144afd772bbebb38945625cc.jpeg

 

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Clouds again gave way to sunshine today. In response, the temperature rose into the upper 70s in New York City and nearby areas.

Across Western and Upstate New York, record high temperatures were set. Near record heat also prevailed in parts of Ontario and Quebec. High temperatures included:

Buffalo: 92° (old record: 88°, 1944)
Burlington: 92°(tied record set in 2010)
Caribou: 87°
Montreal: 91°
Ottawa: 92°
Rochester: 91° (old record: 90°, 1944)
Syracuse: 93° (old record: 90°, 2010 and 2011)

Some of those areas could see record warmth again tomorrow.

No excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.127.

On May 25, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.599.

Uncertainty still exists with regard to June. However, the recent guidance has begun to converge on a scenario where the temperature anomaly would be within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the region.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.1°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

 

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42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds again gave way to sunshine today. In response, the temperature rose into the upper 70s in New York City and nearby areas.

Across Western and Upstate New York, record high temperatures were set. Near record heat also prevailed in parts of Ontario and Quebec. High temperatures included:

Buffalo: 92° (old record: 88°, 1944)
Burlington: 92°(tied record set in 2010)
Caribou: 87°
Montreal: 91°
Ottawa: 92°
Rochester: 91° (old record: 90°, 1944)
Syracuse: 93° (old record: 90°, 2010 and 2011)

Some of those areas could see record warmth again tomorrow.

No excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.127.

On May 25, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.599.

Uncertainty still exists with regard to June. However, the recent guidance has begun to converge on a scenario where the temperature anomaly would be within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the region.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.1°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

 

Have Burlington and Montreal ever hit 90 before NYC before?

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Have Burlington and Montreal ever hit 90 before NYC before?

Yes. For example, Burlington had a high temperature of 90 on May 11, 1911 (NYC was 76). NYC’s first 90 degree temperature occurred on July 2, 1911.

On May 23, 1975 Montreal had a high temperature of 90. New York City’s first 90 degree temperature occurred a day later on May 24.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. For example, Burlington had a high temperature of 90 on May 11, 1911 (NYC was 76). NYC’s first 90 degree temperature occurred on July 2, 1911.

On May 23, 1975 Montreal had a high temperature of 90. New York City’s first 90 degree temperature occurred a day later on May 24.

Wow. Good to know. Thanks don.

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