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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Not much rain lol

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

I could honestly see this happening. Looks like we get caught in an area of subsidence between the storm off the coast and the ULL?? This is what the GFS did for a few runs before it became wetter again. Still alot of details to iron out regarding next week. Have to see if the Euro ensembles/EPS agree but I think they will. Quite a change from 12z. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 63.5degs., or about 0.5deg. BN.

Month to date is  -4.5[55.6].       Should be about  -3.1[58.4]by the 24th.

The EURO went from 5.8" to just 0.3" for the next 10 days.       The ENS was cut by 2/3rds., and is more like the GFS at 2".

A 06Z GFS Jackpot here on Tues AM:???

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png

66* here at 6am.           Still 66* at 9am.       71* by Noon.         72* by 1pm.       75* by 4pm.        63* by 8pm.

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5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Not much rain lol

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

If only the models were really accurate from 144 hours out lol 

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Probably a compromise between the now heavy QPF GFS and Euro which is now just west  of the area with the heavy rains.  Long duration cut off ULL Mon - Fri/Sat next week.  Still much uncertainty of timing and positions but likely see 3 or 4 of the 5 days mainly cloudy with 1 or 2 days very wet and a sneaky partly cloudy nice day.  Beyond there as we move into Memorial Day weekend we should see the ridge rebuild as the ULL moves out with warming temps and our first shot at some heat/ 90s into the Memorial day holiday and subsequent week 5/25.

 

68 degrees and clearing on our way to a third very nice day.

 

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Finally some nice weather arrives.  Yesterday was great.  Beautiful morning and you can feel the drier air has worked in.

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4 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Fake

So far this year, the sun has been “blank” with no sunspots 76 percent of the time, a rate surpassed only once before in the Space Age — last year, when it was 77 percent blank.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 The GFS tried to do the same with Joaquin while all the other guidance was OTS. You can see the 12z beginning to shift toward the other models. 
 

 

Are you trying to say that this setup is impossible or just the GFS is bad at handling ULLs? Also keep in mind the GFS received a new upgrade since that time.

Spring Sandy

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10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Are you trying to say that this setup is impossible or just the GFS is bad at handling ULLs? Also keep in mind the GFS received a new upgrade since that time.

Spring Sandy

The Euro does much better with tropical and trough interactions than the GFS. I would believe it if the 12z Euro came in more phased than the 0z run. But the 12z GFS took a step further east. The 12zCMC, UKMET, and NAM are similar to the 0z Euro more OTS.

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro does much better with tropical and trough interactions than the GFS. I would believe it if the 12z Euro came in more phased than the 0z run. But the 12z GFS took a step further east. The 12zCMC, UKMET, and NAM are similar to the 0z Euro more OTS.

Did you see the eps ?

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WRF-NMM model. I think the GFS is perfectly capable of handling ULL interactions. The short-term motion is what is causing the changes. Most likely from the beefed up energy in Texas.

wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_seus_48.png

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38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z eps

12z Euro is dry through 120 hrs with the tropical system remaining offshore.

4A862582-8133-4791-8933-547EB91A64A3.gif.512fc7dfbd73c4b24c1a7fc91a687fdd.gif

74E6B14F-D473-42FA-8E32-F1795C23F3C0.gif.34003ea16c9ecdd1b9d3817c108e7f40.gif

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Topped out at 78 here, low of 61, first low in the 60’s.

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Hopefully the models shift the storm west. Interesting weather is better than boring weather .

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2 hours ago, Cfa said:

Topped out at 78 here, low of 61, first low in the 60’s.

Today was a perfect day. Wish we had more days like this..San Diego like. 78 after a low of 65, now 72.

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