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wxeyeNH

April 27 2020 late season snow event

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4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

What’s the real deal with traveling from NJ to VT? I have a cabin in West Wardsboro, wanted to drive up with my son tomorrow, just do some cleanup around the house, take a drive around (not leave car), check the property, isolate there. Relax, watch some flakes Sunday. Bringing our own food for a few days. Am I not ok doing that seeing I am a VT homeowner? 

I would think you are totally fine doing that. You are bringing food and going to your own property. 

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6 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

What’s the real deal with traveling from NJ to VT? I have a cabin in West Wardsboro, wanted to drive up with my son tomorrow, just do some cleanup around the house, take a drive around (not leave car), check the property, isolate there. Relax, watch some flakes Sunday. Bringing our own food for a few days. Am I not ok doing that seeing I am a VT homeowner? 

Stay quarantined and follow social distancing protocols, wear a mask etc. 

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

They only would have had Barker open on weekends this week

If there’s snow we ski, regardless what lifts spin. Unfortunately uphill is shut down right now. There were a number of events earlier this month as well  when they would have been wide open under normal circumstances. 

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would think you are totally fine doing that. You are bringing food and going to your own property. 

Ok I agree. I was gonna stop by powderfreaks house, give him a NJ hug lol but I’ll stay away. 

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5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

If there’s snow we ski, regardless what lifts spin. Unfortunately uphill is shut down right now. There were a number of events earlier this month as well  when they would have been wide open under normal circumstances. 

Parrot weekend !

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM will the tail end reach around. Looked a little cooler down here.

As long as the low gets captured it’s real. Can’t have it escaping northeast though. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as the low gets captured it’s real. Can’t have it escaping northeast though. 

Check out 500. That piece of energy phases in on Monday from the west, and developed a closed contour under us. Definitely enhances the lift. 

  • Weenie 1

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Hour 66 low stalled /crawling just a hair From ACK NE /E mass in developing CCB changing over 

Slight strengthening hour 72 maybe a slight drift to over ACK . R/S line seems to have not moved much 

strengthens as its sinks about 50 miles SE of ACK gets EMa/Se mass w CCB

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Looking more and more like Mitchell, Chickens and Maniacs FTW although NAM is stubborn for the Hunchie 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looking less impressive up here. That warm conveyor is getting a little too far north for my liking. 

Initial s/w sends the goods pretty far north despite srfc low well south. Looks like you’ll get wrap around Monday and Monday night. 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats Ginx to Scooter on north. Enjoy it!

It’s interesting, but a lot needs to go right. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s interesting, but a lot needs to go right. 

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s interesting, but a lot needs to go right. 

You to Bob to Ginx on north just pound wet baseball flakes for hours , while those to the west are partly cloudy . Hopefully Ginx loses no more fences 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

You to Bob to Ginx on north just pound wet baseball flakes for hours , while those to the west are partly cloudy . Hopefully Ginx loses no more fences 

I see what you’re trying to do, but a lot needs to go right. 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see what you’re trying to do, but a lot needs to go right. 

Not trying to do anything. It’s a once in a 50 year event out that way. May as well root you guys on 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see what you’re trying to do, but a lot needs to go right. 

The trend has been to drift this north and east late in the game so I’m wondering if we lose it the next couple runs. 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The trend has been to drift this north and east late in the game so I’m wondering if we lose it the next couple runs. 

Guidance is still all over with the RGEM looking far to the SE and NAM tucked in. 

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06Z Nam will be quite the wakeup delight for Powderfreak as it really moved its clown map totals north.

 

First the 0Z

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

And now the 06

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The trend has been to drift this north and east late in the game so I’m wondering if we lose it the next couple runs. 

I’m a little over my head but it looked like the upper level view of this system favored a low (further north) very close to the S coast 

the late east drift ..well once that gains steam its usually tough to bring back significantly . Capture S of Nova Scotia with a weenie band probably pinwheeling down thru parts of coastal Maine and maybe some of cape.

I’ve seen euro ensembles swing all at once many times when the OP does shift even 50 miles , I wish the ensembles were able to account for a bit more differences in future Op run variance given what I’ve seen 

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BTV weighs in:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Quote

Let`s talk snow now. Though thermal profiles are marginal for snow due to temperatures being near freezing to around 40 F, the dynamics of this system are very impressive and with omega values in the crosshairs of the DGZ, snow growth will be efficient. It`s a challenging forecast to be sure.

Anticipate wet snow within any mesobanding features that develop, mainly geared towards southern Vermont and areas east of the Green Mountains for our forecast area. Additional snow will be possible Monday as temperatures cool aloft under the upper low, but without the intense dynamics, it will become highly terrain dependent for the remainder of Monday. Expect snow levels to drop to around 1000ft during the period of heaviest precipitation from about 5 PM Sunday to 2 AM Sunday. and generally have a dusting to 1". This will be mostly for eastern Vermont due to the more favorable upslope component in the low-level easterly flow.

Areas near to above 2000ft elevation will likely see a wet 1"-4", with the higher amounts focused in the eastern Adirondacks and southern Greens of Vermont. Then at the higher summits, generally above 3000ft, there is about 4"-12" forecast, with the highest forecast over Mt. Marcy and Killington/Mendon Peak. Will continue to assess and revise as more becomes known about this dynamic system.

Their map is hardly bullish:

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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