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joshwx2003

April 12 Severe Event

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Central NC specific from latest RAH AFD.

The severe threat is looking increasingly alarming. IMO the most 
remarkable/concerning aspect is the HREF high probabilities(80-90%) 
that show moderate instability(1000-1500 J/Kg) spreading west to 
east across central NC, amidst the large 0-1 km hodographs and 400-
500 m/s of helicity created by the incredibly strong low-level shear 
moving through the region. This environment will be highly conducive 
for widespread thunderstorm wind damage, tornadoes and large hail 
across the area between 09Z(4am) to 16z(Noon), with the pending of 
evolution/mode of the convection(line/bow segment vs. discrete 
supercells) playing a critical role in what the main severe threat 
will be.  
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SPC upping the wind threat for a good chunk of AL with the pm update of the SWODY1.

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Watch coordination for Alabama ongoing.  Should see it hit within the next hour.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch coordination for Alabama ongoing.  Should see it hit within the next hour.

Will it be a regular or PDS TOR is my question 

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1 minute ago, Solak said:

Central NC specific from latest RAH AFD.

The severe threat is looking increasingly alarming. IMO the most 
remarkable/concerning aspect is the HREF high probabilities(80-90%) 
that show moderate instability(1000-1500 J/Kg) spreading west to 
east across central NC, amidst the large 0-1 km hodographs and 400-
500 m/s of helicity created by the incredibly strong low-level shear 
moving through the region. This environment will be highly conducive 
for widespread thunderstorm wind damage, tornadoes and large hail 
across the area between 09Z(4am) to 16z(Noon), with the pending of 
evolution/mode of the convection(line/bow segment vs. discrete 
supercells) playing a critical role in what the main severe threat 
will be.  

yeah mid morning to early afternoon could be problematic in central and eastern NC.....soundings are as bad as they get around here. 

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Just now, yoda said:

Will it be a regular or PDS TOR is my question 

I don't see it being a PDS.

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I'm honestly somewhat surprised they kept the 15% MDT risk for tornadoes. Just do not foresee the tornado threat ramping up, especially from a supercell perspective. Guess there could be dozens of QLCS tornadoes later, but i'm not sure if that warrants a moderate risk for tornadoes.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

I'm honestly somewhat surprised they kept the 15% MDT risk for tornadoes. Just do not foresee the tornado threat ramping up, especially from a supercell perspective. Guess there could be dozens of QLCS tornadoes later, but i'm not sure if that warrants a moderate risk for tornadoes.

Perhaps, but 45% hatched wind is also moderate risk

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

I'm honestly somewhat surprised they kept the 15% MDT risk for tornadoes. Just do not foresee the tornado threat ramping up, especially from a supercell perspective. Guess there could be dozens of QLCS tornadoes later, but i'm not sure if that warrants a moderate risk for tornadoes.

I’m guessing for a combination of continuity and the background environment...

I am NOT saying this will be a total bust, but even when the Oklahoma high risk busted last May, they kept high even during the 01z update, which made almost no sense. 

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Keep an eye on the McComb, MS cell as it moves northeastward. Isolated, and beginning to rotate as it moves through favorable open parameter space.

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Just now, Buckeye05 said:

Keep an eye on the McComb, MS cell as it moves northeastward. Isolated, and beginning to rotate as it moves through favorable open parameter space.

Tornado warned. 

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 109
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   320 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Alabama
     Far southern Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of severe thunderstorms will spread
   east-northeast from Mississippi through this evening. Greatest
   tornado threat will exist across west-central to north-central
   portions of Alabama into early evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Tuscaloosa AL
   to 30 miles east northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline u

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2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

I’m guessing for a combination of continuity and the background environment...

I am NOT saying this will be a total bust, but even when the Oklahoma high risk busted last May, they kept high even during the 01z update, which made almost no sense. 

Broyles... ha. In other news, McComb MS supercell starting to look better... Just went TOR warned.

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They had to keep it moderate imo. If they let that up, and word gets around to people who don’t pay attention, they will let their guard down. When in reality we could be moving into a very Dangerous/deadly Tornado event with a prolific nighttime tornado event. 

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Rotation seems to be ramping up rather quickly on the McComb, MS cell. Probably our best shot at a truly discrete tornadic supercell.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
334 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
MSC103-122115-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200412T2115Z/  
NOXUBEE MS-  
334 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR NOXUBEE  
COUNTY...  
          
AT 334 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER BROOKSVILLE, OR 16 MILES WEST OF PICKENSVILLE, MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

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This event was not suppose to reach it's peak until evening and overnight across Alabama and beyond...how many times have we seen this before where the event seems to be underperforming in Dixie Alley and then we watch what transpires overnight.

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