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madwx

April 2020 Discussion

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

I'm just going to leave this here for :weenie: purposes. 

It was being discussed over at SouthernWX for what owuld also be an historic severe weather outbreak for the Southeast US.

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April 2018 redux, approved by Joe Bastardi! :lol:

  • Haha 2

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1 hour ago, Maxim said:

Nah, models are being negatively affected right now due to lack of aircraft data. Wouldn't put much stock into them past D3 at this point.

They're performing how they have since November.

  • Haha 2

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15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Freezing rain in April, 6 days after what very easily could have been a major tornado outbreak.  Gotta love it.

I’m still mad about that

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3km NAM and HRRR are worlds apart with how tomorrow will be in the warm sector.  The 3km NAM has us at 68 at 21z tomorrow, while the HRRR has us at 83.  HRRR also mixes so deep that it lowers surface dews down below 60.  

Sounds like a win either way :)

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6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

3km NAM and HRRR are worlds apart with how tomorrow will be in the warm sector.  The 3km NAM has us at 68 at 21z tomorrow, while the HRRR has us at 83.  HRRR also mixes so deep that it lowers surface dews down below 60.  

at least the models are staying true to their form in this crazy work.  usually a middle ground between the two is the way to go, maybe a slight lean toward the HRRR

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1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

:stun: at the Euro verbatim on April 13-14...of course it’s 8 days out. 

blizzard? were due.

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45 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Changes at 00z will be wholesale.

Maybe we can get it down to 930 mb over IND with 5 feet of snow.  :weenie:

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe we can get it down to 930 mb over IND with 5 feet of snow.  :weenie:

As long as it is 70 here.

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Weenie run of the euro aside, it's shocking looking at the GEFS ensemble mean for snowfall for mid April. It would be one thing if 1 or 2 members showed a freak snowstorm, but the mean has quite a bit of snow for the Great Lakes region.

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That Euro map is hilarious.  I thought it was in cm at first.  It's inches!  WTF!!!  Funny how that storm keeps disappearing from one model only to show up on the other.  It was on the ECMWF a few runs ago, went away, appeared on the GFS, went away again.  Now it appears once more on the ECMWF more powerful than before.

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44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe we can get it down to 930 mb over IND with 5 feet of snow.  :weenie:

Losing electricity while under quarantine would be awful though.  Can't cook and can't go out to eat.  Even worse situation for field hospitals taking care of COVID victims.  Are they even built to withstand hurricane force wind gusts?

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I had some real nice boomers this morning between 2:45 and 5:30 this morning. I got up and threw a window open to listen to the rain/thunder and smell the petriclor. Ended with 1.09" although areas in the south part of the county had well over 2".

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