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56 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Unfortunately there's no way to know the origin of any variant.

I’m certainly aware of this, but it’s yet another opportunity to smear Texas. But those opportunities are low hanging fruit these days.

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14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’m certainly aware of this, but it’s yet another opportunity to smear Texas. But those opportunities are low hanging fruit these days.

Smear for what? They're doing better than a lot of places and are more open than a lot of places... that fact just makes some people's heads explode. 

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Okay, please don't bake me if this logic is flawed, but wouldn't it make sense for Texas to be doing better than other states because it's massive in size and therefore can contain more people yet still have them be more spread out? I know that there's massive urban centers in Texas but surely its sheer size must account for some of the distortion

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The thing I'm curious about is how the pace of covid mutations compares to other coronaviruses that were already out there.  Is it on the quicker side or does it just seem that way because of all the attention that covid is getting?

Mostly the second imo. Variants especially get a lot of attention for the scare factor but luckily, despite being perhaps slightly more transmissible, none has noticeably changed the course of the pandemic (vaccine still works, fatality rate similar, etc). From a biological standpoint, the mutation rate is probably no different among the coronaviruses given that they have similar genome size and share a proofreading enzyme.

One big caveat though - the increased transmissibility of covid would give it exponentially more opportunities to have those mutations occur vs. less infectious coronaviruses that affect fewer people and therefore reproduce fewer times. And it really is a matter of time and random chance that a variant might emerge that would be of more consequence.

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I noticed that for Indiana, the seven day moving average death rate dropped to 4 yesterday. That is the lowest moving average since 3/25/2020 when the pandemic really started to take off. Now cases have been creeping back up, but I really like that the death rate is at 4 a day and still dropping.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I noticed that for Indiana, the seven day moving average death rate dropped to 4 yesterday. That is the lowest moving average since 3/25/2020 when the pandemic really started to take off. Now cases have been creeping back up, but I really like that the death rate is at 4 a day and still dropping.

Where are you getting 4?  I am seeing 9.  Either way, a heck of a lot better than before.

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On 4/20/2021 at 10:24 PM, cutlew said:

Mostly the second imo. Variants especially get a lot of attention for the scare factor but luckily, despite being perhaps slightly more transmissible, none has noticeably changed the course of the pandemic (vaccine still works, fatality rate similar, etc). From a biological standpoint, the mutation rate is probably no different among the coronaviruses given that they have similar genome size and share a proofreading enzyme.

One big caveat though - the increased transmissibility of covid would give it exponentially more opportunities to have those mutations occur vs. less infectious coronaviruses that affect fewer people and therefore reproduce fewer times. And it really is a matter of time and random chance that a variant might emerge that would be of more consequence.

Exactly the point. People need to get vaccinated before this happens, so we can finish this thing off before a variant develops that renders the vaccines ineffective. You think the divisions in this country are bad now? Wait until the anti-vaxxers are the reason we weren’t able to end the pandemic.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My mother in law has had a 102+ fever for 3 straight days with the 2nd Pfizer shot. She got the shot Saturday. Its the sickest shes ever been. Crazy how some people have no reaction and others do. She never had covid before either. 

Tell her to get on Jonger and dta1984's exercise plan.

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5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It's a little confusing and I'm not sure I figured it out, but maybe.

I think the average on the state dashboard is going by who actually died more recently (in the last 7 days and not before).  But many times, some deaths that are reported each day go back weeks or even months.  The worldometers 7 day average of 9 deaths may explain this.

Screenshot_20210422-111449.thumb.png.732102e06c70d42d10b679bb0b645c21.png

If you look at 4/20 for example, the state dashboard lists 2 deaths as you showed, but worldometers reported 8 deaths.  So perhaps 6 of those deaths go back farther in time?

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It's a little confusing and I'm not sure I figured it out, but maybe.

I think the average on the state dashboard is going by who actually died more recently (in the last 7 days and not before).  But many times, some deaths that are reported each day go back weeks or even months.  The worldometers 7 day average of 9 deaths may explain this.

Screenshot_20210422-111449.thumb.png.732102e06c70d42d10b679bb0b645c21.png

If you look at 4/20 for example, the state dashboard lists 2 deaths as you showed, but worldometers reported 8 deaths.  So perhaps 6 of those deaths go back farther in time?

 

I think you're right. That would explain the discrepancy.

Any way you look at it, the trends in deaths are the best they've been since the onset.

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8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-woman-defies-state-travel-advisory-11619025586?mod=trending_now_opn_5

Rules for thee and not for me. In case anyone was wondering, the Lansing resident is the Governor

I think criticism is fair in this case.  Her father had been vaccinated, but Whitmer herself did not receive a first dose until April 6.  

There have been too many hypocritical instances of politicians preaching one thing and then doing another in the past year.  

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54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seeing the early signs of a plateau and possibly a dip in vaccinations.  Not unexpected but was hoping this trend wouldn't have started for at least a few more weeks.

It's the start of the dip, we are definitely past the immunization peak.  I too wish we had maintained the pace a bit longer but it's dropping as predicted, and the drop is likely to accelerate in the next few weeks.  I'm anticipating media hysteria on the drop off in vaccination rates over the next couple weeks.  I posted before that the vaccine projection by youyanggu from months ago on vaccination rates appears to be remarkably spot on.

On the plus side the expected collapse in cases also appears to be happening right on schedule also. *fingers crossed*

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4 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

It's the start of the dip, we are definitely past the immunization peak.  I too wish we had maintained the pace a bit longer but it's dropping as predicted, and the drop is likely to accelerate in the next few weeks.  I'm anticipating media hysteria on the drop off in vaccination rates over the next couple weeks.  I posted before that the vaccine projection by youyanggu from months ago on vaccination rates appears to be remarkably spot on.

On the plus side the expected collapse in cases also appears to be happening right on schedule also. *fingers crossed*

What was the percentage of total vaccinations? 60-65?

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What was the percentage of total vaccinations? 60-65?

Edit: misread your post the first time...

By the end of June, total 62% of the total population immune 32% from vaccine alone, (45% of the total american population vaccinated aka 149 million people) 13% from vaccine plus infection, 17% from infection alone.

By January 2022 the breakdown is 64% total protection, 38% vaccine, 16% vaccine plus infection, 10% infection alone.

Link - https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

He posts all of the assumptions in his model in terms of rate of waning natural immunity, effectiveness of vaccines, etc.

 

According to the CDC we are already at 41% of the population that has received at least the first shot.  The model estimates  60-70% total will get the vaccine by the end of the year. As we know the protection isn't 100% from the vaccine in terms of preventing transmission, the model estimates an 85% vaccine efficacy rate which is why the total immune from vaccination stays below that number. 

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