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Its the post Christmas bump, so unlike what some here keep saying, no we haven't peaked yet.

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From looking at the hospitalization numbers you see the change in hospitalizations was +7200 in last 7 days, but +5300 the 7 days prior. Since the Wednesday numbers were not impacted by the holidays, it is likely you are seeing the impacts of holiday gatherings on the numbers. It also 12 days post-Christmas, which is about the time you would begin to see more severe symptoms requiring hospitalization.

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My mom's cousin (well, technically my cousin too) passed away earlier this morning.  He was 68.  

I have already been taking the virus seriously, but it hits a little differently now.

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42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

My mom's cousin (well, technically my cousin too) passed away earlier this morning.  He was 68.  

I have already been taking the virus seriously, but it hits a little differently now.

Sorry for your loss, my condolences to you and your family.

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8 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Sorry for your loss, my condolences to you and your family.

Thank you.

We actually shared the same birthday... many years apart of course since he was in my mom's age group.  That was always a thing with us.  We greeted each other by the number month/day of our birthday instead of by name.  Good guy and such an unfortunate way to go since hospitals don't allow visitors.

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At this pace, do you think the US could reach herd immunity through infection before it does via vaccination? CDC estimated 91 million actual infections from Feb-Sept alone... obviously many more since then and only at an increasing rate.

If the CDC estimates only 1 in 7.2 cases are being reported, and the US currently sits at 21,920,352 cases, that would translate to 157,826,534 actual infections so far, which is about 48% of the population.

Of course, this assumes you can only catch the virus once.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

(apologies if this has been discussed already)

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20 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

What a day in America. This will only complicate fighting this pandemic 

Yep, pretty blatant plan that unfolded yesterday.  

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30 minutes ago, harrisale said:

At this pace, do you think the US could reach herd immunity through infection before it does via vaccination? CDC estimated 91 million actual infections from Feb-Sept alone... obviously many more since then and only at an increasing rate.

If the CDC estimates only 1 in 7.2 cases are being reported, and the US currently sits at 21,920,352 cases, that would translate to 157,826,534 actual infections so far, which is about 48% of the population.

Of course, this assumes you can only catch the virus once.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

(apologies if this has been discussed already)

Not likely, we will get a good portion of the way there via infection unfortunately, though. 

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25 minutes ago, harrisale said:

At this pace, do you think the US could reach herd immunity through infection before it does via vaccination? CDC estimated 91 million actual infections from Feb-Sept alone... obviously many more since then and only at an increasing rate.

If the CDC estimates only 1 in 7.2 cases are being reported, and the US currently sits at 21,920,352 cases, that would translate to 157,826,534 actual infections so far, which is about 48% of the population.

Of course, this assumes you can only catch the virus once.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

(apologies if this has been discussed already)

It may happen on the local level in some areas but not on a widespread basis imo. There are however many that would argue with the 1 in 7.2 number. Other data modelers like yyg at covid19-projections.com provides a dynamic estimate of this ratio and currently estimates it being closer to 1 in 3 which pegs the total infected at 72 million as of Dec 23rd which puts the number at 21% with a range of 15-32%. 

There are also additional uncertainty regarding the amount needed to obtain here immunity with Dr. Fauci recently edging the estimate closer to 70-80% especially in light of the more transmissible variant that is likely to become dominant going forward.

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Fauci's method of herd immunity doesn't respect what a elderly disease this is. My guess the US is nearing it. As I have said for 6 weeks now, the fall later in the winter is going to be impressive. Between the old getting vaccinated and burn out, there won't be much left of Covid by April.

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Fauci's method of herd immunity doesn't respect what a elderly disease this is. My guess the US is nearing it. As I have said for 6 weeks now, the fall later in the winter is going to be impressive. Between the old getting vaccinated and burn out, there won't be much left of Covid by April.

The problem with your post is that any age group can get covid.  I think we will get to a point where the ratio of hospitalizations/deaths to cases drops as more of the vulnerable are vaccinated, but I expect the number of cases to be stubbornly elevated even past March/April.

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Cases should really drop as we move toward Spring due to a combination of greater population immunity combined with seasonal factors, IMHO.

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2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Cases should really drop as we move toward Spring due to a combination of greater population immunity combined with seasonal factors, IMHO.

I agree we'll drop.  I'm just not falling for overly optimistic projections given what we have seen since this started, and now the added thing of the vaccine rollout being messy, which is going to take time to fix.  Even then, a significant chunk of the population won't take it.  I could easily see us having about 50k-100k cases per day through most of the spring, but hopefully not. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The problem with your post is that any age group can get covid.  I think we will get to a point where the ratio of hospitalizations/deaths to cases drops as more of the vulnerable are vaccinated, but I expect the number of cases to be stubbornly elevated even past March/April.

There was 888k hospitalizations, 49 million infections, and about 12000 deaths in the 18-49 age group per the CDC through the end of November. 36% of that whole cohort. Small fatality risk from an individual standpoint, but a substantial hospitalization risk, and I believe it represents the largest mortality event in the US for young and middle aged adults since Vietnam. 

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The problem with your post is that any age group can get covid.  

Thats the only problem with his post?!!?

 

Separately, sorry for you & your family's loss.  My condolences.

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

My mom's cousin (well, technically my cousin too) passed away earlier this morning.  He was 68.  

I have already been taking the virus seriously, but it hits a little differently now.

I'm sorry to hear that. Condolences to you and your family.

I have been kind of harsh at times here, but when you've lost friends and seen multiple people suffer for days and weeks, it gets kind of personal...more than just hospital and death stats.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I'm sorry to hear that. Condolences to you and your family.

I have been kind of harsh at times here, but when you've lost friends and seen multiple people suffer for days and weeks, it gets kind of personal...more than just hospital and death stats.

What I can't stand is when people say, "Well it's only the elderly who get seriously ill or die..." or "It's only those with preexisting conditions who need to worry..."

First of all, that's just obviously false.

Most importantly, though, it's outrageously callous.

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19 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

What I can't stand is when people say, "Well it's only the elderly who get seriously ill or die..." or "It's only those with preexisting conditions who need to worry..."

First of all, that's just obviously false.

Most importantly, though, it's outrageously callous.

Its brainless, not only is it dumb to say because it is not factual, but at what point is it fine that old people are dying because of it. As if it were 100% elderly that would be okay or marginalize the impact of the virus. It is just blind stupidity.

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The equivalent (or more) of a 9/11 or about 2 Titanic's worth of deaths in this country every day from this one cause (or in weather terms, about 1 1/2 Hurricane Katrinas or 8-9 4/27/11s) but they're mostly elderly and probably would have died within 10 years anyway so sure, no big deal.

:angry:

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10 hours ago, WxMatt21 said:

What I can't stand is when people say, "Well it's only the elderly who get seriously ill or die..." or "It's only those with preexisting conditions who need to worry..."

First of all, that's just obviously false.

Most importantly, though, it's outrageously callous.

50%+ of the deaths are aged 80+. So yeah, barely anybody under 80 has died. Like I said in a earlier post, you would have to be upward of 1.8-2 million to match Spanish Flu deaths of mostly people aged 20-40. It sucks, it's a weak pandemic though. If the hospitals hadn't crammed up with it, it wouldn't even be front page news.

Too many you guys are like white suburban mom's who freak out when their Husbands/Boyfriends bring home a handgun. Get a grip.

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5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

50%+ of the deaths are aged 80+. So yeah, barely anybody under 80 has died. Like I said in a earlier post, you would have to be upward of 1.8-2 million to match Spanish Flu deaths of mostly people aged 20-40. It sucks, it's a weak pandemic though. If the hospitals hadn't crammed up with it, it wouldn't even be front page news.

Too many you guys are like white suburban mom's who freak out when their Husbands/Boyfriends bring home a handgun. Get a grip.

WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU???

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43 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

50%+ of the deaths are aged 80+. So yeah, barely anybody under 80 has died. Like I said in a earlier post, you would have to be upward of 1.8-2 million to match Spanish Flu deaths of mostly people aged 20-40. It sucks, it's a weak pandemic though. If the hospitals hadn't crammed up with it, it wouldn't even be front page news.

Too many you guys are like white suburban mom's who freak out when their Husbands/Boyfriends bring home a handgun. Get a grip.

50% or more of COVID deaths (in this case over 180000 of 360000) have been over age 80, yet barely anyone under age 80 has died? 100000, 150000 etc count as “barely”? Do you have even a basic knowledge of math/percentages? And what a f-ing callous thing to say regardless. 

We also have treatments and care that we did not have in 1919. So yeah I would certainly hope we could keep death numbers lower, but we by far have the highest death toll on Earth. So it also indicates our response being a total failure. 

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Would love to know why none of you It'S nO bIg DeAl types are ignoring the other long-term health consequences, many of which we probably don't even know about yet.

There are an increasing number of studies looking into the decline of brain health, among other lasting issues.

For all we know, the president's widely reported detachment from reality could be a direct consequence of his infection last year.

 

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