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George BM

March Banter 2020

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Loving that FCPS is now closed through the 14th of April lol.  Lots of distance learning looks like

My wife isn’t 100% looking forward to having both our girls at home all day for a month (it’s not easy on the weekends for a few hours!), but she did tell my 1st grader that there will be lots of arts and crafts, with interspersed math and reading, while she’s home!

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China is already back in business.  Italy is the new ground zero with Spain not far behind.  Then the USA is another week or two behind them to hit their peak

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Just wanted to check in with all of y'all. I'm OK. Still haven't gotten tested but I have almost fully recovered. Life goes on. I've stocked up on supplies and am ready to ride this out for the next month with my son. Hope all are well.

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4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Just wanted to check in with all of y'all. I'm OK. Still haven't gotten tested but I have almost fully recovered. Life goes on. I've stocked up on supplies and am ready to ride this out for the next month with my son. Hope all are well.

I’m glad that you’re feeling better, though I think it’s absurd that you weren’t tested.
 

Hopefully it was something else, but either way, really glad to hear that you’re on the mend.

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7 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Just wanted to check in with all of y'all. I'm OK. Still haven't gotten tested but I have almost fully recovered. Life goes on. I've stocked up on supplies and am ready to ride this out for the next month with my son. Hope all are well.

Glad to hear you're feeling better!  And I pray your son doesn't get whatever you had.

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Glad to hear you're feeling better!  And I pray your son doesn't get whatever you had.

I honestly think I got it from him. He recovered very fast though.

 

I stocked up before the madhouse rush so I'm good for a long time.

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Was at Giant earlier... milk and bread were running low... is there a snowstorm coming I dont know about? 

But really... lots of people were at the grocery store even at 9/10pm at night and their carts were all nearly full with alot of things

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Kind of ironic. We are now putting in place measures to stop the spread by creating social distancing and yet everyone is now congregating in Super Markets/Food stores etc... stocking up on supplies to ride out the storm. Think chances are pretty good we end up seeing a sharp spike in the next week or so from this.

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Kind of ironic. We are now putting in place measures to stop the spread by creating social distancing and yet everyone is now congregating in Super Markets/Food stores etc... stocking up on supplies to ride out the storm. Think chances are pretty good we end up seeing a sharp spike in the next week or so from this.

Shutting down the schools will cause a spike, too. Because now instead of kids giving it to kids, they're going to give it to their parents/aunts/uncles/grandparents/older neighbors since not all parents can just take off work to watch their kids.

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3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Shutting down the schools will cause a spike, too. Because now instead of kids giving it to kids, they're going to give it to their parents/aunts/uncles/grandparents/older neighbors since not all parents can just take off work to watch their kids.

That is another aspect, the children, in particular the teenagers. Going to be very difficult to keep them at home for such an extended period of time without them sneaking out and joining up with friends. 

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And those kids are going to be less likely to be washing their hands while out playing/hanging with friends as they would at school

Going to disagree with your above points. Shutting down the schools has the effect of not having kids spread things to teachers, janitorial staff, and other kids. It is largely up to parents to wrangle their children and make them wash their hands/keep them home (which is their job in many ways!) — keeping them home 100% decreases virus spread.

 

Why do you think kids stay home from school when sick originally? To decrease the spread of illness and put them in a better spot to recover. When I was sick in K-12 (only a couple years ago) I would stay home as to rest and drink lots of fluids.

 

The whole point of social distancing is to make sure that if you are going to infect someone, it is only your family.

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12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Going to disagree with your above points. Shutting down the schools has the effect of not having kids spread things to teachers, janitorial staff, and other kids. It is largely up to parents to wrangle their children and make them wash their hands/keep them home (which is their job in many ways!) — keeping them home 100% decreases virus spread.

 

Why do you think kids stay home from school when sick originally? To decrease the spread of illness and put them in a better spot to recover. When I was sick in K-12 (only a couple years ago) I would stay home as to rest and drink lots of fluids.

 

The whole point of social distancing is to make sure that if you are going to infect someone, it is only your family.

Yup. If you keep schools open, kids become a vector of transmission between families and kind of makes the whole shutting other things down absolutely pointless. It's a vulnerability in our system to flatten the curve. You have to reduce human interaction as much as feasible to slow the progress of the glut that is about to clobber hospitals.

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Yup. If you keep schools open, kids become a vector of transmission between families and kind of makes the whole shutting other things down absolutely pointless. It's a vulnerability in our system to flatten the curve. You have to reduce human interaction as much as feasible to slow the progress of the glut that is about to clobber hospitals.

Yep! Thanks for the assist. I shouldn’t write posts two minutes after I wake up.

 

Having a virus run through a school system is the fastest way to make sure it ends up absolutely everywhere in the community. Kids spread germs like crazy, and in the case of these disease especially they are likely carriers. Shutting down the schools will not cause a spike.

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Yeah, it’s a far less concentration of people. If a kid goes out to play with friends it’s usually a smaller group of people than an entire cafeteria during lunch. There’s also less potential as middle and high school students swap classes, creating multiple opportunities for transmission.

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14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Going to disagree with your above points. Shutting down the schools has the effect of not having kids spread things to teachers, janitorial staff, and other kids. It is largely up to parents to wrangle their children and make them wash their hands/keep them home (which is their job in many ways!) — keeping them home 100% decreases virus spread.

 

Why do you think kids stay home from school when sick originally? To decrease the spread of illness and put them in a better spot to recover. When I was sick in K-12 (only a couple years ago) I would stay home as to rest and drink lots of fluids.

 

The whole point of social distancing is to make sure that if you are going to infect someone, it is only your family.

Never said keeping them in school was the better option for controlling the spread. Just pointed out the fact that we will still have issues with them being home though it will be to a much lesser degree. And the problem here is that from what I understand roughly 80% of people experience minor if not no symptoms and yet are still contagious. So how many kids are going to think they are fine and head on out the door?

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Never said keeping them in school was the better option for controlling the spread. Just pointed out the fact that we will still have issues with them being home though it will be to a much lesser degree. And the problem here is that from what I understand roughly 80% of people experience minor if not no symptoms and yet are still contagious. So how many kids are going to think they are fine and head on out the door?

What do you define as kids? I was (and still an) particularly non-rebellious, so if my parents told me to stay inside, I would. I could have video games to play if I craved social interaction. My mom is telling my 16 year old sister to stay inside and to not hang out with friends, so she will. Isn’t the job of parents to keep their kids safe? I guess if older kids are going to climb out the windows and not listen to their parents, you’re right, the issue isn’t completely solved. Still better than having 500-3,000 of them locked in a small school building.

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"It found as many as 21 million people might need hospitalization, a daunting figure in a nation with just about 925,000 hospital beds."

- The Hill

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

There is a serious lack of hospital beds in the U.S according to The Hill, which would probably spell disaster for the U.S. Trump admitted a few years back that he cut back on the pandemic response team, apparently as well: 

 

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

"It found as many as 21 million people might need hospitalization, a daunting figure in a nation with just about 925,000 hospital beds."

- The Hill

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

There is a serious lack of hospital beds in the U.S according to The Hill, which would probably spell disaster for the U.S. Trump admitted a few years back that he cut back on the pandemic response team, apparently as well: 

 

It's a 100+ year old solution, but it works:

 

Emergency_hospital_during_Influenza_epidemic%2C_Camp_Funston%2C_Kansas_-_NCP_1603.jpg

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What do you define as kids? I was (and still an) particularly non-rebellious, so if my parents told me to stay inside, I would. I could have video games to play if I craved social interaction. emoji14.pngMy mom is telling my 16 year old sister to stay inside and to not hang out with friends, so she will. Isn’t the job of parents to keep their kids safe? I guess if older kids are going to climb out the windows and not listen to their parents, you’re right, the issue isn’t completely solved. Still better than having 500-3,000 of them locked in a small school building.

Guess you are one of the well behaved younger adults. :D Teenagers in general are rebellious as they learn their limits, even those that have had a solid up bringing. That said, schools had to be closed even though it may bring up other issues. Was the far better option then allowing the sharp unmanageable increase we saw in Italy. Keep the flat curve and we should get through this with minimal damage.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, it’s a far less concentration of people. If a kid goes out to play with friends it’s usually a smaller group of people than an entire cafeteria during lunch. There’s also less potential as middle and high school students swap classes, creating multiple opportunities for transmission.

Just our luck, 007; in NYC the Mayor bombs out in his bid for greater mediocrity and comes back to do his elected job and by gosh, his greatest accomplishment is to keep the Public School system open against the advice of his own City Council President and others. Even with an understanding of his, keep the schools open position, I still keep thinking of all the good intentions that famous road is paved with. As always ...

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The CDC raised similar concerns back in the Swine Flu days.  None of which came close to fruition and not nearly as much was done then to stop the spread.

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14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's a 100+ year old solution, but it works:

 

Emergency_hospital_during_Influenza_epidemic%2C_Camp_Funston%2C_Kansas_-_NCP_1603.jpg

China built field hospitals in a matter of weeks. I’m not sure how rough it’ll get here, but if thousands of people in New York are walking around undiagnosed, as the Governor just said, that’s trouble.

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19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What do you define as kids? I was (and still an) particularly non-rebellious, so if my parents told me to stay inside, I would. I could have video games to play if I craved social interaction. emoji14.pngMy mom is telling my 16 year old sister to stay inside and to not hang out with friends, so she will. Isn’t the job of parents to keep their kids safe? I guess if older kids are going to climb out the windows and not listen to their parents, you’re right, the issue isn’t completely solved. Still better than having 500-3,000 of them locked in a small school building.

Well put.

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10 hours ago, yoda said:

Whats this?  No mention of the 00z GFS for next Thursday of next week?  Its a quick wet snow bomb for like 4-8 hours... soundings even support heavy wet snow into DC proper at 12z THUR and even 15z THUR... better run for Ji than 18z was lol

 

Corona virus tracking is the new thing these days. :P

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2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Shutting down the schools will cause a spike, too. Because now instead of kids giving it to kids, they're going to give it to their parents/aunts/uncles/grandparents/older neighbors since not all parents can just take off work to watch their kids.

I think others have hit on this, but I feel the need to chime in that this logic doesn’t really work.

If kids give it to kids, those kids then are vectors to give it to their parents, and from there to other people as those parents possibly interact while being asymptomatic.

This is going to be hard on families who aren’t prepared to work on one (or less) income - almost impossibly hard in some cases. However, the answer is not to send kids to school as a form of childcare - that defeats the purpose of trying to “flatten the curve.”

I feel lucky that my wife stays at home and works freelance in her spare time, so we don’t have childcare concerns (other than my wife’s sanity). For families who are able to work remotely, it will be tough to handle the logistics but they’re in a much better position than many others. Hopefully the rest of the people who have no choice but to try to work until/unless they get show symptoms will be able to ride things out. Aside from those who will suffer greatly from being ill (and their families), these are the people to whom my heart goes out.

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I’d just like to know, honesty and sincerely, how anyone can still believe this isn’t that serious. 

This is probably the largest mobilization and disruption of American society since the Second World War. The stock market in a span of two weeks went from all time highs to one of the sharpest declines in American history. Virtually half the states, led by legislatures and governors of both parties have declared states of emergency and states are shutting all public schools.

Like, do you really think we’d be doing this if this virus were another flu? Do you really think places like China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain would halt their economies for a bad flu season? 

We can disagree on the eventual scope. Maybe the mortality rate is closer to .4% than 2%. Perhaps the transmission rate slows during warmer months. But the facts are the facts and the math is the math and it ain’t got squat to do with what Obama did in 2009 and what the swine flu may or may not have done. 

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d just like to know, honesty and sincerely, how anyone can still believe this isn’t that serious. 

This is probably the largest mobilization and disruption of American society since the Second World War. The stock market in a span of two weeks went from all time highs to one of the sharpest declines in American history. Virtually half the states, led by legislatures and governors of both parties have declared states of emergency and states are shutting all public schools.

Like, do you really think we’d be doing this if this virus were another flu? Do you really think places like China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain would halt their economies for a bad flu season? 

We can disagree on the eventual scope. Maybe the mortality rate is closer to .4% than 2%. Perhaps the transmission rate slows during warmer months. But the facts are the facts and the math is the math and it ain’t got squat to do with what Obama did in 2009 and what the swine flu may or may not have done. 

Amen Brother.

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34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d just like to know, honesty and sincerely, how anyone can still believe this isn’t that serious. 

This is probably the largest mobilization and disruption of American society since the Second World War. The stock market in a span of two weeks went from all time highs to one of the sharpest declines in American history. Virtually half the states, led by legislatures and governors of both parties have declared states of emergency and states are shutting all public schools.

Like, do you really think we’d be doing this if this virus were another flu? Do you really think places like China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain would halt their economies for a bad flu season? 

We can disagree on the eventual scope. Maybe the mortality rate is closer to .4% than 2%. Perhaps the transmission rate slows during warmer months. But the facts are the facts and the math is the math and it ain’t got squat to do with what Obama did in 2009 and what the swine flu may or may not have done. 

Millions of people think the world is flat. And on top of just plain “stupid” we currently have a political climate where a segment of society has created their own narrative that has nothing to do with reality in any way.   How much damage was done by that segment being fed conspiracy theory nonsense and a dismissive attitude for months?  I have family in conservative coal country PA and I just read a whole thread one of them posted saying how stupid this is and they aren’t falling for this scam or changing plans at all.  I have to imagine some of that was fueled by the weeks of BS they got from conservative media. 

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