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George BM

March Banter 2020

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Unfortunately, I (and others!) quite like some of the old and sickly — some of whom are my professors, family member, and probably some of you all. I don’t like that my classes are moving online, but social distancing and isolation is hardly a waste of time. We are talking about lives here, people. C’mon now.

HUGE waste of time, money, etc. 

Isolate the 80+ers with underlying medical conditions? Sure. 

But to do all this to the rest of us is absolutely ridiculous and 100% unnecessary. 

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HUGE waste of time, money, etc. 
Isolate the 80+ers with underlying medical conditions? Sure. 
But to do all this to the rest of us is absolutely ridiculous and 100% unnecessary. 

who takes care of the 80+ers? Who gets the caretakers their food? Do they visit their families? Do they go to the grocery store? What about the teenage grocers who will almost 100% be fine but will spread the virus?

You can’t just stick 80+ers on an island. Why not mitigate the spread and lower the damage curve? It’s irresponsible to do anything else. Trust me, I feel bad for everyone’s investments. But lives > money here. Tough to convince me otherwise.
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I’ll drop this soon because it depresses me a bit to talk about it, but it is all about flattening the curve. We need to keep ICU’s and hospitals available for those who need help. It isn’t rocket science to see why it’s best to shut things down for awhile, inconvenience be dammed.

See: Spanish Flu. Or check out any of the other hundreds of graphs that say the same thing.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So dumb.

In the end it’s gonna be a ton of money spent, ruined events, and all for nothing.

I don’t care what they do, you will never contain the spread of this. So live life and let’s get on with it.

I can speak for the validity of this but I was listening to a guy on the radio yesterday and he was supposedly quoting stats from the cdc. He said that 80% of those who will contract this will require no medical attention. He also said that the average age of those who have died was 80!! He also said that ALL of them had underlying medical conditions. Now I don’t know if he was just speaking about the US or not.

 

Regardless, my hunch is that once we have a valid number of cases to base conclusions off of, meaning at least 500,000 us cases, that we are going to see a very low death rate and a specific set of victims.

Im not saying throw caution to the wind. Take precautions. But to let this thing tank economies, bring daily life to a standstill is ridiculous. The media is fanning these flames because it gets attention. We live in an age of sensationalism where logic and reason seemingly have no place.

Oh well, rant over. But I can tell you that I’m one person who is not going to let fear of a virus, a cold virus at that, keep me from doing anything I want to do.

The argument on the other side is that while you can't contain the spread, you can slow it down so that hospitals do not become overwhelmed.  That is the scary scenario for the rest of us that aren't really at a high risk. 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So dumb.

In the end it’s gonna be a ton of money spent, ruined events, and all for nothing.

I don’t care what they do, you will never contain the spread of this. So live life and let’s get on with it.

I can speak for the validity of this but I was listening to a guy on the radio yesterday and he was supposedly quoting stats from the cdc. He said that 80% of those who will contract this will require no medical attention. He also said that the average age of those who have died was 80!! He also said that ALL of them had underlying medical conditions. Now I don’t know if he was just speaking about the US or not.

 

Regardless, my hunch is that once we have a valid number of cases to base conclusions off of, meaning at least 500,000 us cases, that we are going to see a very low death rate and a specific set of victims.

Im not saying throw caution to the wind. Take precautions. But to let this thing tank economies, bring daily life to a standstill is ridiculous. The media is fanning these flames because it gets attention. We live in an age of sensationalism where logic and reason seemingly have no place.

Oh well, rant over. But I can tell you that I’m one person who is not going to let fear of a virus, a cold virus at that, keep me from doing anything I want to do.

I cant tell you how much I agree with what you are saying.. finally someone with audacity to come out and say the obvious.  given the fact that most people dont get sick and when they do test, they see the disease being transmitted at a very high rate, I wouldnt be surprised if I am carrying the virus right now.. leaving the common sense stuff aside I think that there is a bigger social issue that is going on here.. it feels like overnight we have become an altruistic society... one that views every situation as right or wrong... with no room for people to make their own informed decision.   There is no risk - reward analysis. 

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16 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:


who takes care of the 80+ers? Who gets the caretakers their food? Do they visit their families? Do they go to the grocery store? What about the teenage grocers who will almost 100% be fine but will spread the virus?

You can’t just stick 80+ers on an island. Why not mitigate the spread and lower the damage curve? It’s irresponsible to do anything else. Trust me, I feel bad for everyone’s investments. But lives > money here. Tough to convince me otherwise.

I'm pulling my hair out man. We have to look at this from the lenses of individual risk vs. systemic risk, but I'll set that aside to get straight to the point.  

Folks on Capitol Hill recently received a briefing that said current projections are that between 70-150 million Americans will get this eventually. For comparison, an estimated 60.8 million Americans got Swine Flu in one year, with approximately 12,000 deaths.

With this virus, we know that approximately 80% of folks will not need medical attention. That's good. But there's still 20% that will, and even if we're generous with a mortality rate of .5% overall, that's still 5x higher than the flu. All you have to do is run the numbers. 

Using the lower range of both transmission and mortality, that would leave 375,000 Americans at risk of dying from this. Not to mention millions of hospitalizations. 

I'm a young healthy guy. So while my individual risk is of getting really sick is low, there's a good chance I get it and become a carrier. That's where social distancing and all the cancellations that are going to annoy people matters. It's not about me. I'll more than likely be fine. It's about me and millions of others being used as hosts to infect vulnerable populations.

11SCI-VIRUS-TRACKER1-mediumSquareAt3X.jp

The less people that can be infected, especially in a short period of time, the less people in vulnerable populations are at risk. 

We're not just looking at people 80+ dying from this virus. At all. While it is true that the mortality rate jumps dramatically for those 80+, it is very high relative to other viruses for people 60+. This isn't even taking into account those that have underlying health conditions, of which there are tens of millions of Americans. 

5e67b19a54f25c32e320ef33?width=600&forma

So once again, run the numbers. Do the math. 

There are some that are going to be fooled by the number of global cases and national cases, because those numbers are low relative to the total population. Only 1,000 cases? This isn't close to the flu! But exponential growth during pandemics tells us why we should be concerned now and take action now. 

Italy might have had 100 cases two weeks ago. Today there are over 10,000 cases. For every one person infected, they can infect 2-3 others. That's how you get one attorney in New Rochelle with coronavirus turning into over 100 in a few days. That's how you get one person at a Biogen conference in Boston turning into 70 in Boston in a few days.

Now replicate that...in just a hand full of towns in every state...and double it every week or two. That's what we're up against. Now is the time to slow the spread. 

Screen-Shot-2020-03-11-at-11.57.29-AM-e1

And that's why taking drastic action now matters. Exponential growth, it occurs to me, can be used in the opposite direction as well. For every one person that doesn't get infected because they don't go to work or a social gathering, that's 2-3 people they can't infect, and so on. 

You can't just isolate one demographic in this instance. VP Pence is 100% right here. It's not just a whole of government approach, it is a whole of America approach. 

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Edited to fix the overall transmission projection from 75 million to 70 million.

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Great info and write up [mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention]
The italy situation is eye opening and shows how things can turn quickly.

bump on the thanks! My rushed messages while on Spring Break (yes, chastise me for my hypocrisy) were not doing it justice.
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59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm pulling my hair out man. We have to look at this from the lenses of individual risk vs. systemic risk, but I'll set that aside to get straight to the point.  

Folks on Capitol Hill recently received a briefing that said current projections are than between 75-150 million Americans will get this eventually. For comparison, an estimated 60.8 million Americans got Swine Flu in one year, with approximately 12,000 deaths.

With this virus, we know that approximately 80% of of folks will not need medical attention. That's good. But there's still 20% that will, and even if we're generous with a mortality rate of .5% overall, that's still 5x higher than the flu. All you have to do is run the numbers. 

Using the lower range of both transmission and mortality, that would leave 375,000 Americans at risk of dying from this. Not to mention millions of hospitalizations. 

I'm a young healthy guy. So while my individual risk is of getting really sick is low, there's a good chance I get it and become a carrier. That's where social distancing and all the cancellations that are going to annoy people matters. It's not about me. I'll more than likely be fine. It's about me and millions of others being used as hosts to infect vulnerable populations.

11SCI-VIRUS-TRACKER1-mediumSquareAt3X.jp

The less people that can be infected, especially in a short period of time, the less people in vulnerable populations are at risk. 

We're not just looking at people 80+ dying from this virus. At all. While it is true that the mortality rate jumps dramatically for those 80+, it is very high relative to other viruses for people 60+. This isn't even taking into account those that have underlying health conditions, of which there are tens of millions of Americans. 

5e67b19a54f25c32e320ef33?width=600&forma

So once again, run the numbers. Do the math. 

There are some that are going to be fooled by the number of global cases and national cases, because those numbers are low relative to the total population. Only 1,000 cases? This isn't close to the flu! But exponential growth during pandemics tells us why we should be concerned now and take action now. 

Italy might have had 100 cases two weeks ago. Today there are over 10,000 cases. For every one person infected, they can infect 2-3 others. That's how you get one attorney in New Rochelle with coronavirus turning into over 100 in a few days. That's how you get one person at a Biogen conference in Boston turning into 70 in Boston in a few days.

Now replicate that...in just a hand full of towns in every state...and double it every week or two. That's what we're up against. Now is the time to slow the spread. 

Screen-Shot-2020-03-11-at-11.57.29-AM-e1

And that's why taking drastic action now matters. Exponential growth, it occurs to me, can be used in the opposite direction as well. For every one person that doesn't get infected because they don't go to work or a social gathering, that's 2-3 people they can't infect, and so on. 

You can't just isolate one demographic in this instance. VP Pence is 100% right here. It's not just a whole of government approach, it is a whole of America approach. 

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Great write up. I guess I differ in a couple of places. One, I don’t think we will have an accurate death rate until we get a much larger sample. My guess is that there are probably 10 times more people who actually have this thing than we think. And that may be a low estimate. If so, in this country that would put us very near flu like death rates. Two, I’m not sure we can really slow the spread at this point. We may delay it a bit, but we aren’t gonna stay locked away from each other for long. I would think that as soon as we go back to daily regular activities that we would see the spread take right off again.

I think the only way to realistically deal with this is to live life, be cautious, be clean. We won’t be able to truly isolate ourselves for very long.

I could be wrong in everything that I think. I’m not so arrogant that I think I’m always right. I just feel how I feel about this. That and the way I feel about the health care machine in general, but I won’t go into that.

But that was a great post. It made me think in some different ways. Hopefully we can get through all of this 

One other side note. Probably won’t happen but an event like this underscores the need for humans to seriously consider things like moon or even Mars colonies. Possibly sealed biodomes. Anything to give us a place to preserve the human race in the event of a catastrophe.

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24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

As long as the liquor stores and strip clubs  stay open :drunk:

Stay away from coughing "dancers"..lol

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35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

As long as the liquor stores and strip clubs  stay open :drunk:

Strip clubs are now probably one of the cleanest and therefore safest places to go:lol:

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2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Great info and write up @WxWatcher007

The italy situation is eye opening and shows how things can turn quickly.

According to CNN, Italy had a jump of 2,313 cases just yesterday. That's insane. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Great write up. I guess I differ in a couple of places. One, I don’t think we will have an accurate death rate until we get a much larger sample. My guess is that there are probably 10 times more people who actually have this thing than we think. And that may be a low estimate. If so, in this country that would put us very near flu like death rates. Two, I’m not sure we can really slow the spread at this point. We may delay it a bit, but we aren’t gonna stay locked away from each other for long. I would think that as soon as we go back to daily regular activities that we would see the spread take right off again.

I think the only way to realistically deal with this is to live life, be cautious, be clean. We won’t be able to truly isolate ourselves for very long.

I could be wrong in everything that I think. I’m not so arrogant that I think I’m always right. I just feel how I feel about this. That and the way I feel about the health care machine in general, but I won’t go into that.

But that was a great post. It made me think in some different ways. Hopefully we can get through all of this 

One other side note. Probably won’t happen but an event like this underscores the need for humans to seriously consider things like moon or even Mars colonies. Possibly sealed biodomes. Anything to give us a place to preserve the human race in the event of a catastrophe.

Thanks. I certainly don't have all (or any :lol:) of the answers either. I'm just reading a lot and listening to respected scientists and doctors. I agree with you that we probably don't have a good death rate, if for no other reason than we're not counting everyone or even getting a good sample size of who has it. I was looking at the Swine Flu data earlier today and it ended up being much less deadly than originally thought. We could have that here too.That said, we have to work with the data we have, and the modeling isn't looking good if we can't contain it. Dr. Fauci put the mortality rate at 1% today in a hearing. That's scary for vulnerable populations. 

Call me too optimistic, but I still think there's a chance that we can slow the spread. If we can cut this thing off like firefighters that contain and cut off emerging wildfires, maybe we can flatten out that curve and limit the potential for more drastic actions. I like what a lot of states are doing, but without a national approach and a LOT more testing, I'm not sure we're winning the fight. 

To be clear, and I've said this before, I don't think this is an existential threat. It can be bad, and it is definitely serious, but we can manage this and be ok. But I think we have to be willing to take bold action now and be proactive to protect people and the economy. Hopefully we see a decline as we head toward warmer months. 

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I just used the money that I had saved to pay my taxes this year to buy shares of Hilton, American Airlines and Disney.   

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7 minutes ago, PDIII said:

I just used the money that I had saved to pay my taxes this year to buy shares of Hilton, American Airlines and Disney.   

I did something similar to max out my Roth for 2019.

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I did something similar to max out my Roth for 2019.

I pulled out most of my investment savings just before the market tank. Totally lucky. 

My retirement is down almost 15% in the last month. 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I pulled out most of my investment savings just before the market tank. Totally lucky. 

My retirement is down almost 15% in the last month. 

I refuse to look at my 401k during times like this lol.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

I refuse to look at my 401k during times like this lol.

That’s a good strategy. I’ve got 30 years, so I’m fine. Not touching anything. The graph was wild to see. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s a good strategy. I’ve got 30 years, so I’m fine. Not touching anything. The graph was wild to see. 

Ive got atleast another 20 years. It sucks watching your nestegg drop like a rock but now is the best time to buy. Ive got my 401k set up with a large percentage of it being in aggressive funds. Not changing anything now.

I

 

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1 hour ago, George BM said:

 

If I had to venture a guess, I would say that the NCAA tourney will be cancelled, as well as the remainder of the NHL season.  Sad.

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He should be banned or given a timeout. It was a disgusting comment. It has no place here. 
Wait I thought this was the safe banter room? No but it got you guys talking. Anyways until next time "family"

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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