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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO says what storm???

 

 

As advertised, the wave timing is all out of sync in a progressive flow. The southern stream shortwave dampens as it slides east in the wake of the exiting midweek wave, while the NS UL energy dropping in behind is too late. Has the looks of a big fish storm on the latest runs, that might get captured in time to crush the Eastern Canada Provinces.

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I think the only chance is March tilt time and that's dismal but the eps upticked my snow lol

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

6Z EPS also says what storm?  Stays south and east.

I doubt we get anything BUT your looking at the wrong thing. The initial SS wave is going to slide out south. Even if it did come up it’s not cold enough without the NS anyways. It’s the NS system diving in a day later that “could” phase and spark redevelopment along the coast. That’s the thing to watch.  It’s very low probability but it’s a better chance than that SS wave. 

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10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO says what storm???

B415EADF-DC64-40C7-B3E0-EB866FB6642E.png

A3100AE7-06B4-40D1-BE3D-929211F91690.png

It did go from 991 to 962 in 12 hrs.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs has my big rainstorm from a storm that would have been snow a week earlier. Lol 

wVMMDKe.png

 

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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I think we are all looking at the wrong thing.  Outside doing yard work.

Lol. I doubt anyone is waiting with baited breath for each run. But even in this crap year it’s still possible to fluke into some kind of frozen event in the next 4 weeks. It’s not likely and even if it happens it’s likely a minor event but for some it’s still worth a quick glance once in a while. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs has my big rainstorm from a storm that would have been snow a week earlier. Lol 

You hear that sound, it's the sound of inevitability.

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Too nice out for staring at weather models when we have incredible persistence and know the outcome.

Been outside pulling up chickweed in my mulch areas. Kinda therapeutic until you realize its just another losing battle with nature lol. So many weeds out so early.

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32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Too nice out for staring at weather models when we have incredible persistence and know the outcome.

Been outside pulling up chickweed in my mulch areas. Kinda therapeutic until you realize its just another losing battle with nature lol. So many weeds out so early.

 

Agreed, gaining sun fast and next week DST starts, also get some sun and vit D 3 conversion going on which is proven to increase  your resistance to viruses  and strengthens  your immune system, and a natural anti depressant too!   

I have given up on snow weeks ago.  I still look every few days at the models but expect nothing and so far nothing it has been.  

On a long term note of interest,  these bad winters have happened before and we will bounce back in the next few years.   

 

 

 

 

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Speculations can be made, and not sure myself the causes here as referenced by Maue beyond lagged effects and warm oceans,  but this trend along with the lack of a strong Nino  is a bit concerning.

 

 

   This itself is remarkable as well. 

 

 

 

 

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Fun to look at...doubt it will have any meaningful impact on wintery conditions for our area. BUT all you can ask is for things to trend in the right direction...and for now it appears to be happening. Looks to be trending to the CMC. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh114_trend.gif

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The biggest (quite possibly the only) impact for next weekend will beeee....yup, you guessed it- wind.

Unless there are some serious;y big changes in the current guidance(sorry CMC, you are still third string), this is going to be some showers followed by a big ol fish storm. Outside chance eastern NE gets a decent hit. Oh joy.

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WB 18z GEFS.  Slight increase...probably just noise, but it is too dark for yard work now.
 
 
AA0AB876-1145-49F0-BED1-F8D37F091533.thumb.png.a604413461b29d3a1bcc3559dd50b220.png
A3675CC2-CE30-440C-852C-54F43E8C8283.thumb.png.53fba3a671b5fd33a1732778da1a80ce.png
I think this storm is going to end up being a 6-12 for dc by the time all is said and done
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3 hours ago, frd said:

 

Speculations can be made, and not sure myself the causes here as referenced by Maue beyond lagged effects and warm oceans,  but this trend along with the lack of a strong Nino  is a bit concerning.

 

 

   This itself is remarkable as well. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, but Helsinki isn’t Carroll County.

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