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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well yea if we get a -NAO we could get a below avg April but people are acting like it will be a cold miserable month. Maybe a few days tops. But a 55 degree sunny day in April isn’t my idea of suffering or worth obsessively fearing. 

And others definitely disagree. No need to get into subjective arguments. That's unpleasant for some folks, especially because such days in April usually come with a north wind.

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Well yea if we get a -NAO we could get a below avg April but people are acting like it will be a cold miserable month. Maybe a few days tops. But a 55 degree sunny day in April isn’t my idea of suffering or worth obsessively fearing. 

Still golf weather!!


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For me, the only "torture" of 55 degree temps with blocking in April is more a torture of regret and frustration--because you are reminded of how you DIDN'T get that blocking and/or -NAO when you needed it in winter. Call it...the torture of weather unfairness, lol

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who cares about april cold...if you get an early -NAO in early april....it can help get a storm underneath us....to give us a snowy day that probably wouldnt stick  unless it was a bomb. the only way we score in april is a bomb

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49 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

And others definitely disagree. No need to get into subjective arguments. That's unpleasant for some folks, especially because such days in April usually come with a north wind.

I’m sure there are real problems those people could find to worry about 

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

And others definitely disagree. No need to get into subjective arguments. That's unpleasant for some folks, especially because such days in April usually come with a north wind.

My preference would be to get through April without ever sniffing 80. I would love to see every day in the 50s and 60s, maybe an occasional 70 or so. That's just me. I hate to see early heat and humidity. We have months and months of that crap in our future. That is inevitable. We can all wish/hope to get what we consider to be pleasant early Spring weather, and that certainly is subjective. Wont change a thing or make it any more or less likely to occur. Not sure why anyone would engage in arguments over such things. Quite absurd.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Honey I’m home...
B9CAD378-FB6F-4E6F-BAA7-EEDF3DAA0ADF.thumb.png.0ee11f7081c4b713173deff395b7387c.png

Were running out of time

What are you talking about, the day 280 super secret model I run out of my basement looks GREAT!  

ETA: for Maine 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Reality..

Times up.

In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

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In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 
I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

Why worry? Expect total suckage. Anything better is an over performer.

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:
28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

I wasn’t kidding about my 5-10” prediction. I mean it’s a WAG and totally based on probabilities BUT it’s legit. Currently odds do not favor a nino and other than ninos all other winters following years like this mostly sucked. On top of that our median snowfall since 2000 in all non nino years is 7.5”. So yea next year is probably going to suck.  

But look on the bright side...maybe they miscalculated and that huge asteroid this week will hit the Earth and then we won’t have to suffer through it. 

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:
29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

Same...

 

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Why worry? Expect total suckage. Anything better is an over performer.

Expecting suckage doesn't make any suckage suck less...Just like you can expect your team to lose a big game...but it still sucks anyway. I know for me...lowered expectations doesn't always translate to lowered disappointment when it doesn't work out. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Same...

 

Expecting suckage doesn't make any suckage suck less...Just like you can expect your team to lose a big game...but it still sucks anyway. I know for me...lowered expectations doesn't always translate to lowered disappointment when it doesn't work out. 

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t kidding about my 5-10” prediction. I mean it’s a WAG and totally based on probabilities BUT it’s legit. Currently odds do not favor a nino and other than ninos all other winters following years like this mostly sucked. On top of that our median snowfall since 2000 in all non nino years is 7.5”. So yea next year is probably going to suck.  

But look on the bright side...maybe they miscalculated and that huge asteroid this week will hit the Earth and then we won’t have to suffer through it. 

So what is it leaning towards? Another neutral? (or nina?)

And punting another winter?...Mercy...I'm hoping the solar minimum saves us next year. All the other ones on record seem to have given us average or better.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So what is it leaning towards? Another neutral? (or nina?)

And punting another winter?...Mercy...I'm hoping the solar minimum saves us next year. All the other ones on record seem to have given us average or better.

Guidance right now is split between neutral to Nina. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

Yeah you don't know my brain, lol Suckage is suckage...living through it is not easier. Just like we knew the +AO would suck...doesn't make it any better. Coming on here, having all the negative emotion reinforced...hearing forecasts of mild records everywhere...how the heck does expecting less make that better? Heck, I dread this for next year, and it will still suck if it happens. I don't think the "abandon hope" option works for everybody.

For example:

I will never trust a nina again and will always expect the worst. But that doesn't mean that all the crap that usually comes with a nina (close misses, perpetual snowhole, beaches clobbered, n + e cashing in) still isn't gonna be depressing. Low expectations don't equal things being pleasant.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Guidance right now is split between neutral to Nina. 

Hopefully another neutral + minimum could be better...If you wanna look at history, I'd lean more towards average snowfall...all the minimum years hit that or better within a year...But of course, climate...so who knows.

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24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hopefully another neutral + minimum could be better...If you wanna look at history, I'd lean more towards average snowfall...all the minimum years hit that or better within a year...But of course, climate...so who knows.

It’s going to do what it does regardless of how much we worry about it now. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t kidding about my 5-10” prediction. I mean it’s a WAG and totally based on probabilities BUT it’s legit. Currently odds do not favor a nino and other than ninos all other winters following years like this mostly sucked. On top of that our median snowfall since 2000 in all non nino years is 7.5”. So yea next year is probably going to suck.  

But look on the bright side...maybe they miscalculated and that huge asteroid this week will hit the Earth and then we won’t have to suffer through it. 

Still digging I see. Why stop now. Lol

9F912953-DD1E-4941-8752-B6BA01BD111E.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Still digging I see. Why stop now. Lol

9F912953-DD1E-4941-8752-B6BA01BD111E.jpeg

Maybe if i dig deep enough I’ll emerge out the other side of winter and it will be in the phase 8 you were predicting using the CFS. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What are you talking about, the day 280 super secret model I run out of my basement looks GREAT!  

ETA: for Maine 

That should get us into early December.  I'm all in!!  Start a thread!

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

None of us can abandon all hope, including you. We might say we have, but we still hope. Perhaps not now, but come mid November we will be right here.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe if i dig deep enough I’ll emerge out the other side of winter and it will be in the phase 8 you were predicting using the CFS. 

Understanding you are using statistical probabilities based on assumptions it will be a Nina but so much can change over the next several months not sure it’s worth discussing. Except for the fact it gets on Mersky’s nerves. 

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1 hour ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Understanding you are using statistical probabilities based on assumptions it will be a Nina but so much can change over the next several months not sure it’s worth discussing. Except for the fact it gets on Mersky’s nerves. 

Bingo...

A WAG about next year isn’t worth much. I’m not claiming it is. I’ve been transparent that it’s just a wag based on probabilities and trends.  That said the probabilities favor a below avg winter. Of course that’s true EVERY year.  But mostly I find it amusing that this bothers Mersky so much. 

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