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Dr. Dews

March 2020 disc/obs

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only if you bought into it and thought it had a chance. If you didn’t and didn’t track every model run, it wasn’t 

Exactly. It is Scott's fault that we lose out. ...Except for maybe Nantucket.  

If it's not other regions stealing our snow it's individuals not doing enough to will it to fruition.  

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Didn't you make a FB post about expecting snow a few days ago?

It was a moment of weakness!  You can take the weenie out of the snow but can’t fully take the hope out of the weenie.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Didn't you make a FB post about expecting snow a few days ago?

Weasel word "possible" saved him. He is a good salesman.
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin effed us 

You didn't believe.  Just like those Christmas movies where if you don't believe in santa claus he is not real and fades away.

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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

You didn't believe.  Just like those Christmas movies where if you don't believe in santa claus he is not real and fades away.

I was starting to hope when a few runs got interesting, but deep down I didn’t have a good feeling. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was starting to hope when a few runs got interesting, but deep down I didn’t have a good feeling. 

Saw it coming from a mile away. Super Rat.

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21 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Hey at least we are on the cold side of a storm for a change.

Still 40f tells us how F’d the winter has been.

Yay for being cold and miserable. Give me 70.

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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was starting to hope when a few runs got interesting, but deep down I didn’t have a good feeling. 

That’s what Will, Ray others have had. Hope. That’s dangerous 

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2 hours ago, Hazey said:

This winter was better the farther northeast you were. Cape Breton and eastern Newfoundland are having a banner winter(well above). I will be lucky to crawl my way to average or slightly below. NNE will be sub par except extreme northern areas. Obviously you guys in SNE have had it really bad. The most annoying thing for me this winter is how many teases we had. Like having the ball ripped away time after time. Just a barrage of close but no cigar misses. Just makes a crappy winter worse in my opinion. 

Sounds about right.  CAR is 115% YTD snow and I'm closer to 80%.  They've had several events 12"+ including one 18" and tops here is 7.  Not awful, just meh-minus.

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49da71bbc6d9b04b2a90ba12d3099583.jpg
That’s where I stand. Several nickel and dime events but just missed several biggies by a few miles that nailed eastern NS and then went on to visit Nick.


.

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what Will, Ray others have had. Hope. That’s dangerous 

 

Dana_Cancer.jpg

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This wasn’t a tease. Other than a few who don’t think persistence was the was way to go after Jan, most didn’t think this had a chance other than maybe a graze . 

persistence would have brought this storm up the HV, or at least a screaming sou’wester as you like to say

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Back in Stowe from Utah... some big ol’ flakes flying up here in the mountains.

Still have 8-10” of frozen granular pack.  

Weird to have the echoes moving from NE to SW.  

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4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

persistence would have brought this storm up the HV, or at least a screaming sou’wester as you like to say

Persistence meaning not snowing . Basically the pattern this winter after mid Dec was storms cutting west dragging in warmth ORH south or coastals missing and hitting the Maritimes. This one was not a window and did not have a chance if you went with patterns repeating. Just like in 2015 when they all hit. You just forecasted that. This year you just forecast a miss .

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Persistence meaning not snowing . Basically the pattern this winter after mid Dec was storms cutting west dragging in warmth ORH south or coastals missing and hitting the Maritimes. This one was not a window and did not have a chance if you went with patterns repeating. Just like in 2015 when they all hit. You just forecasted that. This year you just forecast a miss .

This the route you would take if you are anti-science. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like if you thought luck was involved in weather forecasting? 

You don’t even believe what you preach, lol. Otherwise you wouldn’t have even mentioned a snow possibility. 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Persistence meaning not snowing .

That seems not rooted in science.  Like what would cause it to "not snow"?  Luck?  You have storms going both north and south of you, it's not something in the atmosphere causing a black hole over you for snow flakes.

Like in 2014 up here... everything either cut north of us, or Philly got a Winter Storm Warning with the "Leon year".  But a moose fart in Alberta could've brought one of those north or south enough to snow here... it just didn't, bad luck?

I rightfully got owned by Will back then too for thinking it just wouldn't snow because it didn't want to snow.  That's a psychological thing, not a meteorology thing.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That seems not rooted in science.  Like what would cause it to "not snow"?  Luck?  You have storms going both north and south of you, it's not something in the atmosphere causing a black hole over you for snow flakes.

Like in 2014 up here... everything either cut north of us, or Philly got a Winter Storm Warning with the "Leon year".  But a moose fart in Alberta could've brought one of those north or south enough to snow here... it just didn't, bad luck?

I rightfully got owned by Will back then too for thinking it just wouldn't snow because it didn't want to snow.  That's a psychological thing, not a meteorology thing.

I do think a certain element to wx forecasting has nothing to do with science. There is a piece that is based on experience . If it’s full science , it’s likely wrong 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I do think a certain element to wx forecasting has nothing to do with science. There is a piece that is based on experience . If it’s full science , it’s likely wrong 

The parts we can’t forecast are due to atmospheric chaos in a complex system. There is only so much that can be accurately measured and thus predicted. 

Predicting zero snow for like 6 weeks is nothing more than guessing. 

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Quick snow squall in Warwick between bar down the street and home, no good dusting yet.  Looks like a possible band forming to our northeast?

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The parts we can’t forecast are due to atmospheric chaos in a complex system. There is only so much that can be accurately measured and thus predicted. 

Predicting zero snow for like 6 weeks is nothing more than guessing. 

It’s recognizing what the pattern is, what the atmosphere globally is going to yield locally , looking at past similar setups e.g analogs, indicies such as record +AO(which is SNE most important indicator) and a little bit of interpreting modeling and then tweaking their output based on the current atmospheric and local weather results. 

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