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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looked like the 6z eps ticked a little East from 00z. Still a decent hit on the mean first srn and ern areas. 

It squeezed the ridge entering the longitude over the Plains southwest just a little ..and so the whole-scale structure looks synoptically 'ticked' progressively stretched...which is code for bullshit.

It's a nuance of the GFS' native bias being allowed more proxy on a run that's probably not outfitted with the same gunk as the 00z and 12z - that's what it my science-fiction engine sees, anyway.   

That said, this could be the ultimate butt-bone in a winter prison of tormented hell if this thing verifies as a big deep nasty bomb 50 too far SE for anything other than flurries NW of a cat paw event on the Cape.   The winter took it all...then, takes it all -

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looked like the 6z eps ticked a little East from 00z. Still a decent hit on the mean first srn and ern areas. 

Yea, you want this se of you at d4/5 then start that nw trend and get jacked inside d2. You and TBlizzy looking good. He just needs the icon to fully commit then the pant zipper comes undone. 

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, you want this se of you at d4/5 then start that nw trend and get jacked inside d2. You and TBlizzy looking good. He just needs the icon to fully commit then the pant zipper comes undone. 

I’m not committing to anything yet. I’d like to see things at least look a little better from the gfs and at least hold serve on the euro. Still a lot of time left.

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Fun aside, the polar stream wave space that serves as the 'n/stream' capturing device in this whole thing is careening across the "super dense realized data arena " over the N/Pac... This run overall was remarkably in agreement among the available guidance I've seen.  Even the ensemble means don't look very philosophically challenging of one another at all...  And all, miss the region by a pubes to the SE and probably like always happens on Earth, a region that's been getting lucky continues to do so until the bitter end...  NS/NF. 

The hint is in the lead paragraph... The last time a 'well-sampled' wave space over the west seemed to really matter was way back leading the "Boxing Day" storm...That one was all but lost SE as a near miss for multiple cycles, actually ...and then came storming back in guidance with like 30 hours to spare.   Partly sunny/cirrus --> blizzard at less than J.Q. Public can get head wrapped around a forecast, speed.  I'm not sure assimilation is still that primitive -and it really wasn't too terribly so back in 2010 compared to now but a decade is getting old.  That was 10 f'n years man!  wow

So, I'm now improving my outlook from cautiously optimistic to optimistic for a bigger/important cyclone occurrence - but am unfortunately forced to erode back to less than cautiously optimistic that cyclone's impact here will be very extraordinary - that by fairness and full-disclosure allows for moderate impact, but that's pedestrian to me by definition.  If en masse there is a 150 miles NW bump more unilaterally in the guidance, than we can chalk it up ( most likely ...) to data sparseness and sampling idiosyncrasies out over the open expanse of the Pacific and perhaps more optimism for greater impact will be justified at that time.  

One thing I am noticing though... ahead of the s/stream wave as it's vestigial spacing is rippling through the deep south... the flow is still cranking along at greater than 50 kts well out ahead escaping the lower MA out over the Atlantic, at mid level geostrophic vectoring. That's not really good for s/w ridging components; those need to roll out and helps feed back on meridional slowing, and thus helps feed in the n/stream fusion etc..etc and way she goes.  But with those velocities, they are ablating/taking away the lead roll-out ridging, and that may be feeding back on keeping the track SE of the initial s/stream wave; then, the n/stream being slightly ( by just that much ) weaker than prior runs, it doesn't have quite enough mechanics to do it alone.  If a strong n/stream comes in a diving fashion from the NNW, it will 'tip' the flow more S-N orientation off the EC and that would also help pull the s/stream low ignition back NW too.   Lot of moving parts that won't really be assessed very cleanly in this situation until probably 84 hours out in time. But, the general gist of an important cyclone: that much is say 70 or 80th percentile.  

Know what would be funny though, just for morbid laughter?  A NAVGEM absolutely no low result - ho man the scale and degree of apoplexy.

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I want to see a trend of more southern stream involvement at 12z...it doesn't have to be a monster hit verbatim, but would like to see that trend of reeling in the southern vort....the phase is how we get it done for something big, otherwise we're looking at nuisance snows most likely....maybe a moderate event if lucky.

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The models too have struggled significantly with the whole southern stream system and potential impacts across the south. Heck, there was a good part of last week where EPS were even spitting out a large swath of like 4-8'' of rain across the TN Valley with some significant convection...boy has that changed. could certainly see a situation where the southern energy ends up a bit weaker...which would increase the likelihood of more involvement with the northern stream? 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I want to see a trend of more southern stream involvement at 12z...it doesn't have to be a monster hit verbatim, but would like to see that trend of reeling in the southern vort....the phase is how we get it done for something big, otherwise we're looking at nuisance snows most likely....maybe a moderate event if lucky.

Yep, agree.

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It's both ... A bigger physical presence in the n/stream will/would tip the flow more S-N and anything in it at that time, ends up north... 

Part and parcel and necessary in wave interaction/fusion and eventual phasing is that the wave spacing is shared, and that above is how it first initiates. 

But like I said, the velocity is too fast escaping the SE as sort of a lead separate limiting factor; and that's something also that needs to be overcome. It's basically absorbing the s/stream like pretty much everything that's been shearing do to too much wind speed all season long..It's just not doing "as much" but it's still there.   Be that as it may, there's enough there to initiated a cyclogen response, but... that same velocity is also trying to rip that low out to sea before the n/stream has a chance to catch up to it.  

-- to much wind speed limits 'room for error' in phasing

-- n/stream wave mechanics need to come in a little stronger to help pull the total flow structure NW out ahead of the NP dive; it would also help that the backside western ridge bulging would actually happen here.

these aren't deal breakers at this time. The first point can be over come by the second one, but I did notice that n/stream was weaker across the board by a smaller margin/panache, and th result of SE track bias fits that for the above reason. 

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