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Chicago Storm

Mid-week potential of something somewhere

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23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly. 6-10" snowfalls dramatically increased the past decade over the area, but the 12"+ ones remain on the elusive side. Last 1 at DTW was 16.7" on Feb 1/2, 2015

Yeah Big Dog potentials out this way go to rest in SE, MI buried under 6-10"   Just the way it works and the pattern we've been in for awhile.  Hence your uptick in Big Dog 6-10" events.

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7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hrrr has the look of a 1-3 max band event, just pure winter 2020 stuff

Toss worthy again due to the warm 2m bias.  Too warm during the day tomorrow means it will be too slow to cool temps to near/below freezing.

  • Weenie 2

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To my surprise GRR goes with a Winter Storm Watch... surely this will end up being a 2-4” incher (isolated 6” here and there) over the period of roughly 36 hours. 
 

Confidence = 60% of the time, it works every time.

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I'm just hoping that this whole thing shows up tomorrow fifty miles north of what models predict because there's definitely not gonna be any northerly correction at this point lol

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

nam struggling to even get a flake to ord now 

SREF totals cut in half at GRR in the last 6 hours.  This thing better hurry up and get here or the models might start showing 0" for here.

 

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I know nobody gives a damn about what my accuweather app says, but just in case somebody does, Aurora's up to 8-12 now. Maybe this is some crossover episode between two universes and in the other one this is a major blizzard. Dunno anymore. 

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What would be excellent is if we could still manage to get a BS SSW in mid march like I mentioned at the beginning of this thread to ensure maximum suffering.


If that happens and kills the tornado season just like in 2018, 100% chance I lose all interest in weather. Been nice knowing y'all.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, WestMichigan said:

SREF totals cut in half at GRR in the last 6 hours.  This thing better hurry up and get here or the models might start showing 0" for here.

 

DAB line gonna make it south of I80 by tomorrow morning at this pace

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LOT just updated the WSW for Chicago to reflect the following wording

Quote
* WHAT...Heavy snowfall with totals in excess of 6 inches
  possible, mainly toward Interstate 80 and Lake Michigan.

 

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, Castaway said:

Woke up to weather channel showing 8-12” for Chicago and I’m like :bike:

came here and starting looking around and I’m like :sled: game still on. 

 

No final call yet, but feeling confident 8”+ around here in Oak Brook. Coffee should be ready now

Where in oak brook are you?  I’m at York and 22nd

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I hope the 2:11pm winter storm watches sent out by the Chicago nws are auto generated because they r still calling for 6 plus inches and we r likely to not get 6 flakes

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Latest nam utter trash. Unbelievable how bad this has trended. Would barely be wwa worthy here now

A couple days ago  you were rain..  Take it and run.

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Waiting to see what ILX afternoon AFD looks like.

 

Here was this mornings :lol:

 

Quote
LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

Heading into Tuesday, this is when things get a little
questionable. A secondary Low pressure system will fall from the
northern Plains into the Midwest. As this system falls on the
backside of the current Low, cooler air will filter in with it.
This cooler air will allow for rapid temp changes in which
snowfall will develop. As the Low sinks into the mid-Mississippi
River Valley, it will become a closed Low, allowing for deepening
and then stall out over the region. This will allow for moisture
inflow to the storm, from Lake Michigan, bringing the potential
for a substantial snow storm. A Winter Storm Watch has been
initiated this morning, for the far northern 3 counties, for the
possibility of 6+ inches of snowfall. The main axis of snowfall is
expected to develop to the north and east of our CWA, where
upwards of 1 foot of snow is forecast in northeastern Illinois.

Once this system slides out of the region, cooler temperatures
will arrive during the second half of the week. This will bring a
dry spell to the area as well. And then heading into the weekend,
temps slowly warm, with dry conditions persisting.

 

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6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

I hope the 2:11pm winter storm watches sent out by the Chicago nws are auto generated because they r still calling for 6 plus inches and we r likely to not get 6 flakes

I do not believe those type of products are computer generated. That is their up date...and it is 6" or more possible. The noon update stated their thoughts, and I'm guessing another will come shortly. I think you'll see wording in the actual zone forecast start to show a walk back to some areas. 

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7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Latest nam utter trash. Unbelievable how bad this has trended. Would barely be wwa worthy here now

I can't complain about the trends, yet at the same time I can't put any faith into the amounts either. Kuchera on 18Z shows 4.2" yet snow depth never gets over 1.6"

 

Figure it will be just enough for them to salt the roads and rust some more frames

 

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

This is great.


.

Its remarkable. gotta love it though. This system has played the masses.

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rain > miss south

Counterpoint...Less snow to melt here and points SW ahead of the next warm up.


.
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I'll be surprised if we see more than 4" and that is coming from the inside of all the current bullseyes.

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5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

18Z NAM is depressing even for the all snow areas 

There are 2 types of storm fails.  1) when the storm simply shifts out of someone's backyard and 2) when the storm totally falls apart and screws everyone.  At least we are not all the way at #2 yet but would be nice to see beefier trends. 

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