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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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2 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I don’t think I’m buying a Lee side minimum with this storm. I have never seen one to my memory with a SW to NE fetch of moisture. Doesn’t make sense. 

Have to agree....given how the system looks currently and the setup I have a hard time believing it's that extreme. 

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HRRR crushes i-85 and north in the upstate with over one half inch of liquid after the column reaches isothermal at 1pm. According to this model, we only waste about .05 inches of liquid before the change over. Here's the radar valid at 3pm today. You can see the R/S line

Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 4.48.36 AM.png

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25 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

HRRR crushes i-85 and north in the upstate with over one half inch of liquid after the column reaches isothermal at 1pm. According to this model, we only waste about .05 inches of liquid before the change over. Here's the radar valid at 3pm today. You can see the R/S line

Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 4.48.36 AM.png

Burrel2 are you really buying this? I believe the warm bubble that often effects eastern Oconee County and western Pickens County will rear its ugly head for this event. I am in Walhalla, about 8 miles from Oconee Nuclear Station and the soundings are razor thin at best. I exppect a sloppy mess at best and plain rain at worst. Looking at the soundings the slightest tick up in temps may allow us to have some sleet mixed but that may be it

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1 hour ago, burgertime said:

Have to agree....given how the system looks currently and the setup I have a hard time believing it's that extreme. 

Burger sighting!...... Glad you're still alive and well. I have to agree here. I am skeptical of the lee-side snow-hole with the trajectory of the precip that's coming in.

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Futurecast radar, still has snow making it to I-85 by noon here, we will see. Still no WWA

When it’s 46 degrees? :arrowhead: Good luck. 

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58 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

HRRR crushes i-85 and north in the upstate with over one half inch of liquid after the column reaches isothermal at 1pm. According to this model, we only waste about .05 inches of liquid before the change over. Here's the radar valid at 3pm today. You can see the R/S line

Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 4.48.36 AM.png

Latest HRRR paints around.70- .50 from the upstate into the southern foothills hwy 74 towards CTL. 

 

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8 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Latest HRRR paints around.70- .50 from the upstate into the southern foothills hwy 74 towards CTL. 

 

Im literally just above that yellow line in the greenish color. Should be interesting and probably rainy as usual

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Morning thoughts...

At 6:10 am, rain was pushing from west to east into Georgia and eastern Tennessee. Atlanta, which has received more than 200% of its normal precipitation through yesterday was reporting light rain. Heavier rain was located over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. That precipitation will continue to advance eastward.

The storm responsible for that precipitation will affect the Carolinas and southern Virginia later today into tomorrow morning. Snow and rain changing to accumulating snow will fall over parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The heaviest snows will likely be focused on eastern North Carolina into extreme southeastern Virginia where 3"-6" with locally higher amounts are likely.  The latest HREF guidance suggests some amounts in the 6"-8" range are possible in this area.

My final estimates are:

Elizabeth City: 3"-6"
Greenville, NC: 3"-6"
Norfolk: 2"-5"
Raleigh: 2"-4"
Wilmington: 1" or less

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9 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

So we get two SE snowstorms this year and the Mid Atlantic is currently at zero correct?

Congrats 

My biggest storm produced 1.3 inches of snow.

 

3.3 on the season up here in Brooklyn, NY

We are all struggling here. Philly and DC are under an inch and Boston is under 20 inches.

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats 

My biggest storm produced 1.3 inches of snow.

 

3.3 on the season up here in NYC

We are all struggling here. Philly and DC are under an inch and Boston is under 20 inches.

Wow, that’s crazy. When was the last time those cities had such low totals through mid-February? 

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Just now, lilj4425 said:

Wow, that’s crazy. When was the last time those cities had such low totals? 

The last time I finished below 5 inches was in 2001-2002. I finished around 3.5 inches.

I'm not sure about the other cities.

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20 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

So we get two SE snowstorms this year and the Mid Atlantic is currently at zero correct?

No, I think the Mid Atlantic did have one in January IIRC.  I’m not going to call this a snowstorm quite yet.  There needs to be some measureable snow on the ground first.

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The 3K NAM holds on to precipitation later into Friday morning (3-4AM) while the HRRR tends to cut it off around midnight.  This will play a big role in road conditions Friday morning.  A stiff wind and dropping temps will dry a lot of the roads before they can freeze, but all this hinges on the duration of the lingering precip.

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1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

Latest HRRR paints around.70- .50 from the upstate into the southern foothills hwy 74 towards CTL. 

 

How accurate is this model with thermals? Looks like temp will be our biggest issue in the upstate. 

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is the pre-event panic phase for most. Time to just wait and see.

It would be nice if 2m temps started dropping, but I guess this was expected.  I remember a lot of folks in E NC freaking out when they warmed into the mid 40s on Christmas Day 2010 while the initial overrunning was snowing in the foothills and western Piedmont, then they promptly got crushed a few hours later.

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