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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

This run of the NAM pretty much matches the track and precip footprint of the GFS/Euro, but it's simply much heavier with the precip on the north side owning to potentially resolving the higher resolution dynamics at play (heavy frontogenesis).  Maybe the NAM is too heavy with the precip and maybe the globals are too light

Yeah, that seems to be the big question...which is out to lunch, the nam or the globals? Man I want to believe but the long range nam versus the euro/ukmet.  My brain says that's not even a fight. 

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Is the NAM an outlier here folks?  Also, does it tend to overdo the precip?  

So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see.  I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest.  At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip

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Just now, griteater said:

So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see.  I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest.  At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip

Grit, that warm nose the nam is painting for Charlotte scares me. Seen this movie before...

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I think we are starting to move into the time range where the globals aren't as useful. I'd say a safe bet right now is somewhere between what the NAM and the globals are showing, and hope the trends over time move things closer towards the NAM. 

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Just now, griteater said:

So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see.  I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest.  At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip

Thanks Grit.  Looks like the broadcast mets are sticking with the globals.  Guessing in another 24hrs (inside 60hrs) the NAM would suggest a better handle vs the globals maybe?

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

I think we are starting to move into the time range where the globals aren't as useful. I'd say a safe bet right now is somewhere between what the NAM and the globals are showing, and hope the trends over time move things closer towards the NAM. 

great minds?

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Brad Panovich is doing a live stream now and just said he does not like the placement of the high, either.  He says he wants it further east and the low further west.  

 

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

Grit, that warm nose the nam is painting for Charlotte scares me. Seen this movie before...

It should, and if you live here the rest of your life, it will scare you until you are in your grave  :lol:

Sfc low track is excellent.  850 low track is a little north of ideal for us...but it worked out there

 

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17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Eh, more like highway 70

Yeah, it rides 70 east of Raleigh. Either way its a good trend.  

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I don’t care where the high is if I’ve got an isothermal column and frontogenesis like this 

A2C1A964-32C6-4AF4-B2DE-CE45D314BDB9.png

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9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It starts snowing in N Ga/Upstate SC at hour 60 and there are still flurries flying at hour 78. At the end of the run, eastern NC is still getting hammered  :lol: 

A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate.  Probably would be a zone  of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. 

Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting.

 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

89 had record shattering cold, not quite same set up

The point being that cold transport can work. 1989 cold followed days after the snow began.

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The point being that cold transport can work. 1989 cold followed days after the snow began.

But it was record cold in place PRIOR to the snow, which makes all the difference down here

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Not quite the NAM event but still a good run 

76140110-E2AB-4453-A183-2F2EA0869492.png

I think this is a reasonable look at what will happen, although for most, I'd be hesitant to go all in on 3"+. 1-3" seems reasonable for Greensboro, and I'd lean more towards the low end

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Not quite the NAM event but still a good run 

76140110-E2AB-4453-A183-2F2EA0869492.png

I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate.  Probably would be a zone  of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. 

Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting.

 

It gives GSP about .50 in sleet and a couple inches of snow. I don't mind sleet, it makes the sled go faster   :lol:  

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2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing. 

Yep, I think you’re right too.

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