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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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9 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Not sure how up to date this is, but here is AKQs warning criteria: https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/criteria.pdf

Thanks, looks like RAH's and AKQs are the same criteria.

Interestingly, the current watch areas are not currently forecasted w/greater amounts, although I think we can agree the potential is greater. I wonder if that has something to do with it or just different office preferences. Probably overthinking it..

Now I wanna see what MHX does. :D

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

18Z NAM moving north with the snowfall...again.

Seems like it is alone with that trend and overamping the system.  Really doesn't change much other than how long areas take to transition.  Everyone sees snow eventually due to the storm track.

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Seems like it is alone with that trend and overamping the system.  Really doesn't change much other than how long areas take to transition.  Everyone sees snow eventually due to the storm track.

HRRR and the NAM both. 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Seems like it is alone with that trend and overamping the system.  Really doesn't change much other than how long areas take to transition.  Everyone sees snow eventually due to the storm track.

Good point.  May have not given it enough time to develop.  Only out to 27 on Pivotal when I posted my earlier content.  Hour 30 shows snow back further south now.

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That is the 5th run in a row of the NAM with double digits for Durham on the Kuchera maps. 

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28 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though.

poor mackerel is 6 miles south of 85...I'm about 6 miles north of 85. Crazy how that interstate seems to always be a dividing line. Of course, there is that ole Duke Power Nuclear Plant bubble! Hoping we all are happy!

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WWA advisory out of GSP:

Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville,
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville,
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton,
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton,
Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe,
Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills,
Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Gaffney, Catawba,
and Rock Hill
311 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches,
  with spotty 3 inch accumulations near the I-40 corridor, and
  amounts around 1/2 inch southeast of I-85.

* WHERE...Portions of the eastern Upstate of South Carolina as
  well as the foothills and Piedmont of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Roads will initially be warm and wet, but with
  slippery conditions developing as temperatures fall through the
  day. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread black ice is expected Thursday
  night into Friday morning as temperatures fall into the 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

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1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

Just got a WWA, here in CLT.

I think it's gonna be like it usually is there. The minimum in Ballantyne, maximum at Davidson.

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So this run was actually slightly colder in the upper levels and had better RH numbers in the DGZ.

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2 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Forecast discussion doesn't mention a Watch?

Yeah, not sure about that. But MHX has it on their homepage and also tweeted it out. 
 

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...

.Rainfall will transition to a wintry mix, and then to all snow
for much of eastern North Carolina Thursday evening through Friday
morning as low pressure strengthens off the coast. Greatest
snowfall accumulations are generally expected along and north of
the Neuse River, where sub-freezing temps will arrive earlier in
the night. The heaviest snow will fall through the overnight
hours, with potential banding leading to locally higher amounts.
Snow will gradually taper off from west to east early Friday
morning as the low moves further off the coast.

NCZ029-044>046-079>081-091-193-200815-
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.A.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1200Z/
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
Lenoir-Northern Craven-
Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City,
Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland,
Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Columbia, Gum Neck, Snow Hill,
Hookerton, Walstonburg, Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath,
Aurora, Engelhard, Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, Swanquarter,
Kinston, La Grange, Pink Hill, Vanceboro, Ernul, Dover,
and Cove City
302 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to
  three inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern North Carolina mainly along and
  north of the Neuse River.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning.

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3K has basically the same map with a little less snow owing to less QPF(about .15 less). There is less snow down to Charlotte and in the foothills.

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4 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

poor mackerel is 6 miles south of 85...I'm about 6 miles north of 85. Crazy how that interstate seems to always be a dividing line. Of course, there is that ole Duke Power Nuclear Plant bubble! Hoping we all are happy!

Yup...the duke power (glowing green) bubble usually gets us here in the western upstate alot of times. We usually do OK when cold air settles in a day or so before but, that damn warm air bubble... it pretty much parks itself right in this area in a set up like this one! Hopefully Burrell is onto something with the HRRR....

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15 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

That is the 5th run in a row of the NAM with double digits for Durham on the Kuchera maps. 

We’re playing with fire here, but verbatim we got destroyed on the Happy Hour NAM.  I’m sweating sleet pellets, though.

 

The Wake County gradient depicted was classic and painful for those down there, though.

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

There have been a few sleet reports north of Raleigh already today as an FYI.

Have you seen actual pellets there? Surface temperatures are in the upper 40's wasn't sure if their ASOS was reporting accurate info.

On a separate note 12Z Euro in good agreement for RDU with 1-3" possible.

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Just now, bargainmusic said:

My brother lives in Apex and says it is sleeting right now.

Sleet with temps near 50. Pretty interesting 

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Just now, Snownado said:

Sleet with temps near 50. Pretty interesting 

Happened a few years ago in Georgia, I think it was 48 or 49 when it started.

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1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Have you seen actual pellets there? Surface temperatures are in the upper 40's wasn't sure if their ASOS was reporting accurate info.

On a separate note 12Z Euro in good agreement for RDU with 1-3" possible.

We had sleet just south of chapel hill

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Just now, Snownado said:

Sleet with temps near 50. Pretty interesting 

I have seen sleet in the 40's plenty of times.

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5 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

We’re playing with fire here, but verbatim we got destroyed on the Happy Hour NAM.  I’m sweating sleet pellets, though.

 

The Wake County gradient depicted was classic and painful for those down there, though.

It looks like we at least held the line this run if not pushed it a few dozen miles south this run. Hope it continues!

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12 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

3K has basically the same map with a little less snow owing to less QPF(about .15 less). There is less snow down to Charlotte and in the foothills.

Also gives south Orange County a little bit of a burst, suppose it depends on where the bands set up. I could use classes getting cancelled tomorrow:lol:

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