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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It's like nobody saw what happened in Georgia two weeks ago. 

Yep... overcame the temp issue quickly with those rates.   I remember a March snow several years back here where it snowed moderately - big flakes - for hours and barely made the grass white... remember being so frustrated with that one!  This is a more significant even than that but goes to show how just a degree or two can make quite a difference to your totals.  I think this is going to come down to the wire with temps to see how its all going to shake out.

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8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

My gut feeling is they were punting until today. Always trust NAM thermals over GFS. 

This cant be stressed enough....also this wont be as big a mixing problem as some think.....a lot of those sleet soundings in central NC are BARELY sleet soundings at all and once it flips to all snow and that coastal cranks up I doubt we see nearly as much mixing over central and south central NC as the models show....those silly NAM numbers are doable but even 60-70% of the NAM output is a monster hit....

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Last night run of WRF.

Obviously not as amped and a little further south of Nam. A little dryer. But still lines up with Nam as far as east NC goes.wrf-arw_asnow_us_48.png

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Hi all - I normally don’t post and just observe but I saw someone on twitter say that temps in the Midwest are 3 degrees colder than what the nam/gfs shows.  Is there any truth/importance to that? I trust all of your input way more than those on twitter.  Thank you in advance for answering my question.

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3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Hi all, I’m usually lurking but I just moved to Norfolk a few weeks ago (from Georgia). Does anyone have/remember an analogous event to compare this potential storm to for the Hampton Roads area? 

Every event is so different that you can't really lean on an analog.  Hampton roads is a bit north of the main action, but it looks like a decent 2-4" event.  The overall impact should be just as significant as areas to the south that receive greater snowfall since temperatures will be colder and there will be accumulation on road surfaces.

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Trends for the storm:

Favorable

1) Models coming together favoring the higher moisture outputs from the NAM. A mix of the NAM, GFS, and EURO yields what I'd expect and I'd think the NAM would continue to scale back somewhat while other models meet it in the middle

2) NW trend has stopped. We have the moisture. More NW movement introduces more people in the current "snow zone" to the infamous warm nose. NAM is what I would rely on heavily for where that sets up.

3) EURO came onboard

Unfavorable

1) Earlier start time. Looking like for the RDU area and points west and south, start times have inched up to noon. This means less time for cold dry air to filter in before precip starts. Looking more and more like rain to start now and maybe a couple hours of it. 

2) Middle of the day in late February transitions after rain do not point to efficient snow accumulations. With the chilly column (for much of central NC), I do not believe it will be particularly difficult to change to snow, like so many events are here, but this is strictly focusing on accumulations. This is all especially with wet ground and above freezing temps

3) While I believe there is enough lift to generate several heavy bands of snow, areas between these bands are going to struggle to accumulate until later in the even when temps dip below freezing. How much moisture remains at that point will be crucial for final accumulations. I'm agreeing with NWS here and think the term "white rain" will be used frequently during daylight hours tomorrow outside of the heaviest bands

All this aside, this looks like a decent hit to me for Central/Eastern NC. I do not think the CLT people will be as lucky. 

My Updated Call:

CLT- Some snow but minimal to no accumulation

Triad-Roxboro- Increased what I originally thought due to more moisture and the coolest profiles. 1-2 in

Triangle- Increased due to more moisture. BL Temps have become an issue due to what I stated above. I'm going with 2-3 in but this could have been a 4-6 in type storm with more cold and less rain before the snow begins. Enough flakes will seemingly fall for that.

Sandhills- Temps the main issue. I'm going 1-3 in (similar  to Triangle) with highest amounts N

Henderson-Roanoke Rapids- Increased here to me due to more moisture and better profiles. Going with 2-4 in, increasing to the east

Greenville-Rocky Mount-Williamston-Elizabeth City- Temps maybe slightly more of an issue to begin but storm gets cranking. I think this is where the band of heaviest snow sets up. I'm going with a pretty uniform 3-5 in storm with a couple of 7-8 in lollipops in there. Where the moisture meets the highest lift and the best timing for cold air and nighttime snow. I'd be surprised if a WSW isn't issued here

New Bern- still thinking 1-3 in. BL issues going to be main inhibitor, as will hours of rain before the switch. I think almost all of SE NC sees flakes but amounts will taper quickly SE of Newbern. A general Tr-1 in is a good forecast for these areas.

 

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2 minutes ago, Solak said:

JUST IN: We updated the snow potential a bit. We have an area of 2-3" possiblel totals including parts of the triangle.

No photo description available.
 
 
 

This map is horrid.  If they aren't going to accurately forecast the whole state, they should only forecast the counties they are concerned about.

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4 minutes ago, Avid6eek said:

This map is horrid.  If they aren't going to accurately forecast the whole state, they should only forecast the counties they are concerned about.

Agreed.  Garbage map.  They short places like Williamston and Bertie County that are in the model favored areas, and imply Elizabeth City gets almost nothing.  Stupid forecast.

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Maybe model upgrades have fixed a lot of this, but maybe time to reflect on Cold Rain's thread from about 3 years ago...

My favorite line from the post " Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas. "

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Avid6eek said:

Every event is so different that you can't really lean on an analog.  Hampton roads is a bit north of the main action, but it looks like a decent 2-4" event.  The overall impact should be just as significant as areas to the south that receive greater snowfall since temperatures will be colder and there will be accumulation on road surfaces.

Oh I totally get that every event is different. Just kind of wanted to look back on one that was a similar setup. I'd be more than satisfied with a nice 2-4'' event. 

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2 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Oh I totally get that every event is different. Just kind of wanted to look back on one that was a similar setup. I'd be more than satisfied with a nice 2-4'' event. 

Agreed - 2-4" on everything and frozen streets make for a more exciting event than 6" on the grass and 2" of slop everywhere else.  Either way schools will be cancelled and most will stay home from work.  Can't beat a Friday snow day!

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2 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said:

Maybe model upgrades have fixed a lot of this, but maybe time to reflect on Cold Rain's thread from about 3 years ago...

My favorite line from the post " Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas. "

 

 

Remember that painful day as well.Easy to see why they (people that do it for a living.) are a bit conservative

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3 minutes ago, Avid6eek said:

Agreed - 2-4" on everything and frozen streets make for a more exciting event than 6" on the grass and 2" of slop everywhere else.  Either way schools will be cancelled and most will stay home from work.  Can't beat a Friday snow day!

Cancelling school over a little slush on the roads ? Thats funny. I just don't think roads will be that terrible on Friday.

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Taken Verbatim, Raleigh and points south and east should not like this run of the NAM, no matter what clown maps may show. I don't think this is a big sleet storm. I think "pink" will be more of a rain and wintry mix. No accumulations in that time period. Good news is, it's the NAM! Probably still a little too amped. Discredit at your own peril though this close to go-time. Still a decent storm regardless. NE parts of the state look to jackpot the more model runs I see. 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Taken Verbatim, Raleigh and points south and east should not like this run of the NAM, no matter what clown maps may show. I don't think this is a big sleet storm. I think "pink" will be more of a rain and wintry mix. No accumulations in that time period. Good news is, it's the NAM! Probably still a little too amped. Discredit at your own peril though this close to go-time. Still a decent storm regardless. NE parts of the state look to jackpot the more model runs I see. 

look at the soundings, pretty close to a sleet souding on 06z and 12z looks even worse.

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