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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That looks like the 12Z run to me. Odd. 

The simulated radar can be deceiving best to look at QPF totals

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Mike Maze on WRAL just said that they are thinking the low will form further off shore and limit the precipitation in triangle.  Going for trace to one inch in our area.  This is based on their future cast model.  

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1 minute ago, phishbfm said:

GFS trend ain't bad...

bcb77449-fe7f-4bf3-b063-924bb08f0bd0.gif

That last runs push back south against the warm nose is very encouraging. Hope to see that become a trend. 

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

image.thumb.png.f9973cdf15e4460672d197ec6e0a54a2.png

Apps lee-side screw-zone in full effect!  I would think if the precipitation truly blossoms that it would fill back in further NW, but maybe that's just wishful thinking...

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ABC11 (WTVD) actually showed the output from the NAM but discounts the amounts.  They say what is important from the NAM is that the main area with a threat of the most snow lines up fairly well with other models.  Still conservative at 1" or less, but did say that a large area east of Raleigh has a 40% chance of 1" or greater.

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3 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

ABC11 (WTVD) actually showed the output from the NAM but discounts the amounts.  They say what is important from the NAM is that the main area with a threat of the most snow lines up fairly well with other models.  Still conservative at 1" or less, but did say that a large area east of Raleigh has a 40% chance of 1" or greater.

There was some not great forecasting on triangle television tonight

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Looking forward to some insight from brother Lookout for this area. Still think above 85 in upstate gets a nice event if anything close to the nam and gfs pan out.

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

RAH hasn't updated snow maps since 4 pm yesterday. It will be interesting to see how conservative they will be

They updated them at 3:30PM this afternoon.  Check their FB or twitter.

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One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps.  The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it.  I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture. 

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Just now, SnowNiner said:

One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps.  The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it.  I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture. 

Was just looking at the same thing. I've seen it go both ways in this scenario. I've seen it bottom out at 34 and refuse to budge and I've also seen the heavy snow falling through the sub freezing column above give that extra degree or two needed. I guess only time will tell in that regard. 

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

They updated them at 3:30PM this afternoon.  Check their FB or twitter.

It’s annoying how RAH will tweet updated maps LONG before updating their own website.  I miss the old internet before the constant catering to social media users.

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

My call for Greensboro:

<1" 25%

1-3" 50%

4"+ 25%

The latest GFS has given me hope, but I’m still not quite as optimistic.  I’d go with <1” at 40%, 1-3” at 50%, and >3” at 10%.

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL says they have trended their amounts down after today because the cold air will be delayed and the low will be weaker and further off-shore.   Has anyone seen that in the forecast models because I haven't? 
Seems to me they are hanging their hat heavily on the UKMET and EURO and throwing out the other models with that forecast.  

It is hard to bet against the UKMET and ECMWF both and I do not blame them at all. Curious to see 18z ECMWF.

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55 minutes ago, phishbfm said:

GFS trend ain't bad...

bcb77449-fe7f-4bf3-b063-924bb08f0bd0.gif

Starting to get a little excited over this but still not holding my breath. Been disappointed too many times.

 

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4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

It is hard to bet against the UKMET and ECMWF both and I do not blame them at all. Curious to see 18z ECMWF.

Indeed, but those haven't exactly been reliable for the southeast so far this year it seems

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2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Indeed, but those haven't exactly been reliable for the southeast so far the past 9 years it seems

Fixed your post!

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Just now, ST21 said:

I like that map with the differences in the models.

Hope the mid-levels trend colder but my gut says no lol. The 2/8 storm was much weaker and didn't push warm air in the mid-levels.

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