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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you stop lifting.Guess what.  The muscle turns to jello

Thanks Dear Abbey 

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

IMG_20200221_082103.jpg

 

 

Trended further west from 00z even....gonna have to come back the other way for snowier solutions even in NNE.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you stop lifting.Guess what.  The muscle turns to jello

No

not even close 

it just atrophies, disappears 

and if you eat worse at the time you stop lifting well then that’s why you “turn” to Jello

, or because when many stop exercising with weights (that hour of exercise that burnt 4-500 Calories) is now 400-500 calories that you are now storing - if you are sitting on your butt 

Muscle has never turned into fat or vice versa 

so if someone lifted heavily and then stopped and did cardio for like 2-3 years  w zero lifting  they would look like Rev ...”lean”

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lift weights, it helps with the fragile emotional mood swings. 

Most in here could use that life style change.   

I nice three mile run, weight lifting caboosed by a 20 minute fast paced, inclined walk on a treadmill at a gym. Anything that gets one's heart rate up to 120+ bpm (relative to age) and is sustained for 30 minutes, releases endorphins. These are precisely the same types of endogenous opioid neuropeptides ... ( haha but true) that gets released in small amounts by a big bomb on a D7 Euro chart - seriously...That outre sort of 'good mood' one feels for an hour after seeing that storm in the cinema of the model run?  That's the naturally occurring opiods at work.  The only problem is, it is utterly unsustainable because that becomes a dependency on a source that does not provide that 'drug' often enough.  It's unhealthy ...

These "JOY" hormones are naturally occurring, and help one feel well-adjusted and more able to handle times of stress, lowering anxiety, improving overall mood and well-being. Those that engage in regular physical activities are getting that the right way. This parlays 'synergistically' to an overall improvement in health and vitality. And the incredible bonus? Those improvements mean others around them are naturally more tolerant of their bullshit yayyy, because they are shoveling less of it - and the tenors of this and social media et al improves markedly.  Ha... but, one can modulate this stuff more dependably without relying on the complete vagaries of the winds in the model runs. 

 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No

not even close 

it just atrophies, disappears 

and if you eat worse at the time you stop lifting well then that’s why you “turn” to Jello

, or because when many stop exercising with weights (that hour of exercise that burnt 4-500 Calories) is now 400-500 calories that you are now storing - if you are sitting on your butt 

Muscle has never turned into fat or vice versa 

so if someone lifted heavily and then stopped and did cardio for like 2-3 years  w zero lifting  they would look like Rev 

I always laugh at, "thoughts by Kev"

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trended further west from 00z even....gonna have to come back the other way for snowier solutions even in NNE.

This should just Cap off the NH kids vacation  week 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trended further west from 00z even....gonna have to come back the other way for snowier solutions even in NNE.

There is again a big wedge and its possible that the Ens are indicating surface reflections off the MA. Positive take is building blocking high across Canada. With the seasonal trend being weaker flatter perhaps this evolves similar to the persistent pattern. Berks Norh to NNE snowstorm 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is again a big wedge and its possible that the Ens are indicating surface reflections off the MA. Positive take is building blocking high across Canada. With the seasonal trend being weaker flatter perhaps this evolves similar to the persistent pattern. Berks Norh to NNE snowstorm 

Still a long ways out...plenty of time for large shifts.

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31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No

not even close 

it just atrophies, disappears 

and if you eat worse at the time you stop lifting well then that’s why you “turn” to Jello

, or because when many stop exercising with weights (that hour of exercise that burnt 4-500 Calories) is now 400-500 calories that you are now storing - if you are sitting on your butt 

Muscle has never turned into fat or vice versa 

so if someone lifted heavily and then stopped and did cardio for like 2-3 years  w zero lifting  they would look like Rev ...”lean”

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Makes sense to me, as that's where I usually land and I'm fairly warm-blooded - short-sleeved shirt today and -20 or slightly colder.  Only time I go with long sleeves is when I'm in the woods during the cold seasons.  Used to be even more cold tolerant before taking a beta blocker for high BP - dropped my pulse from about 60 to low 50s.

The almost always too warm GFS pulled a fast one this morning, dropping 2/27-28 temps at 2m and H9 by about 10F.  Verbatim we'd get ZR/IP to SN.  Still beyond 100 and more back and forth to come.

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With the day 6 event, I’d def be hedging west and intense right now. The shortwave traversing the Pacific Northwest around hr 60 continues to look deep on guidance early on...The PNA ridge looks very amped in this setup as well. In terms of snow I think we want to be looking for triple point opportunities or an early cut-off bc the synoptic track appears unfavorable, barring significant changes. Interior NNE can have significant snow in almost any given situation this time of the year, so mostly wet or mostly white is still very much up in the air in those parts and will be for some time...

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

I agree both are optimal...I lift and do cardio 3x week.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My cardio will consist of running away as fast as I can from this winter. 

I haven’t even had to fill up gas can for snowblower. Still have gas in it from fall mowing . As sad as it gets lol

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

Wonder what beer does

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I haven’t even had to fill up gas can for snowblower. Still have gas in it from fall mowing . As sad as it gets lol

I’ve used it twice. 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

I lift and cycle. Recently went to a naturopath. At 6'1", 155lbs, body fat is only 8%. They say with every decade, a man should gain ~1-3% body fat. Ain't happening for me. My %fat in college was 12%, no doubt due to crappy eating and beer. I'm going backwards. He said metabolically I am an anorexic. I try to eat more, but my metabolism just ends up finding it's equilibrium. I'd love to put on 10lbs, but it won't happen.

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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I lift and cycle. Recently went to a naturopath. At 6'1", 155lbs, body fat is only 8%. They say with every decade, a man should gain ~1-3% body fat. Ain't happening for me. My %fat in college was 12%, no doubt due to crappy eating and beer. I'm going backwards. He said metabolically I am an anorexic. I try to eat more, but my metabolism just ends up finding it's equilibrium. I'd love to put on 10lbs, but it won't happen.

I'm 5'7" and 211lbs...not lean by an stretch, but in perfect health with a 34"-36" waist.

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15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

With the day 6 event, I’d def be hedging west and intense right now. The shortwave traversing the Pacific Northwest around hr 60 continues to look deep on guidance early on...The PNA ridge looks very amped in this setup as well. In terms of snow I think we want to be looking for triple point opportunities or an early cut-off bc the synoptic track appears unfavorable, barring significant changes. Interior NNE can have significant snow in almost any given situation this time of the year, so mostly wet or mostly white is still very much up in the air in those parts and will be for some time...

You're reasoning after the bold aside for a moment ... the seasonal trend is a tough metric to bear at this point.  It's really unrelenting.  What makes it downright - dare we say ... - "outre" at this point, is that it is doing that west bias thing regardless of any kind of pattern augmentation/permuation that is more or less readily observable.  But, that said, ...the underlying "pattern" really hasn't deviate in my estimation - there have been changes in the gradient at times... But the r-wave distribution ( space and in time...) really hasn't deviated since that gig in earlier December. 

I mentioned a couple days ago ..that I thought the end of this month into the first couple weeks of March had a chance to really see that pattern change ... heh, about half that expectation is currently being met in the bevy of recent runs - particularly the overnight suite showed really coherently by as near as D4 ... about 2 to 3 isohypsotic reduction from the lower latitudes to the 60th parallel over our side of the hemisphere.   That means the geopotential gradient has slacked off by early next week ... And with that, the velocities lower everywhere, ...the southern stream has a chance to conserve S/W mechanical wave spacing without getting crushed and sheared into oblivion because the planetary torque isn't already used up in the PV from hell!  ...and the AO is falling as an index measure of that happening... 

That's all well and good, but what stands out to me about the overnight runs is that the longitude position the ridges and troughs ( R-wave distribution in space and time ) are unchanged. They just have less wind and gradient flowing around the ups and lows.   So all this means, stronger storms ...moving slower, but probably running along the same cyclonic conveyors and well..guess what, that's exactly what we are left with next week. The western ridge is too far west to support a fuller Miller B realization - from what I see...  And with the velocities ( ambiently) lowered, there is less "stretching" to compensate a less than optimal ridge-trough long-wave structure... 

It's like - hate to say ... - it's a believable D6/7 butt-bangin' as there's less theoretical reasons to argue against it. If that ridge in the west bumps closer to the front Range longitudes... then we'll talk. But if anchors over the western cordillera or even west coast like it is in the means, this low probably corrects even more west in future guidance.  

There is one caveat here:  I'm not sure the N/stream is being handled right... I could almost see this thing correcting toward an early Chicago curl as a deep low that then rots and fills over two days spitting lows that run out south of a failed warm frontal cool sector that's "might" be corrected toward greater arming surface pressure over Ontario... That could satisfy the mid latitude R-wave argument that way, too -

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I'm curious about temp difference at similar elevations. This morning we bottomed at 1.8F. We're at 720'. On my way to work, at top of Spiller Hill, 696', temp is -6F. How come? I can't imagine 24' difference in elev would equate to ~8F diff. Meanwhile at 320' (bottom of Spiller) it was -10F, which is expected as it's a shallow boggy area.

temp.PNG

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My cardio will consist of running away as fast as I can from this winter. 

Ha ahahaha... 

word

In my own proclivities to lament the futility of winter as February's age on are only new to new users, I can honestly say, if this all went 82 F until next October 10th, I couldn't be happier.  I mean, don't folks get enough abuse?  haha... But I'm still not sold that we won't get a cruel reminder here a couple of times over the next three weeks - it looks shaky now, but I feel my arguments around late season climo for blocking is clad enough that with an AO that is easing down, there's possibilities. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Most of my cardio comes during the summer when I'm running between inside and outside when t'storms are coming 

So once or twice a year?

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10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'm curious about temp difference at similar elevations. This morning we bottomed at 1.8F. We're at 720'. On my way to work, at top of Spiller Hill, 696', temp is -6F. How come? I can't imagine 24' difference in elev would equate to ~8F diff. Meanwhile at 320' (bottom of Spiller) it was -10F, which is expected as it's a shallow boggy area.

temp.PNG

That's plenty... Under the right conditions, sure it is. 

In fact, routinely on radiatively cold mornings at mi casa ... I leave the driveway in the valley at dawn ...it may be 22 F on the dash therm, and as I wend my way through Devens...the elevation changes by 30 or 40 feet, and it'll be 27 F... then, back down to 23 F at the Nashua River ...sometimes with ground fog, then back to 31 F out west toward 190 S.

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Yeah...he may have been just high enough to be a little mixed with the sharp drop off of the inversion below him. Or, of course, the lava lawn. 

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