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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Are we still holding out hope that these D10+ pattern changes are going to verify? 

AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down.

Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down.

Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing.

I'd think the EPS torch has a better chance than any prolonged wintry stretch given the persistence of the poor pattern the last 2 months

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I can see cold drizzle in November but spring and summer?  I’ll never fully understand that preference... 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down.

Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing.

Correct me if I am wrong here but this was/is my thinking regarding the change. 

1) When looking at the hard numbers or the forecast chart (such as below) you see a big drop coming...not only big but rather quickly

image.png.d7ede9252b4f14586627403a3e40635b.png

 

But when I see "change" I look at it two ways...

1) What is causing the change?

2) Is the structure of the "big picture" changing?

In assessing these two questions, what I gather is

1) There is some transient ridging which evolves and traverses the southern portion of the AO domain which leads to the big drop in AO which is further enhanced by the rather positive anomalies associated with the heights. 

2) The big picture is not changing which is why it is still not a good pattern. The structure of the AO and Arctic domain remains...the TPV still remains quite strong, however, the most negative height anomalies just push a bit towards the opposite side of the pole (hence the "drop in AO"). 

Look what happens after this drop...the AO spikes right back up as that transient ridging either weakens or pushes east of the AO domain. I would even bet that when this drop peaks it ends up being slightly higher than forecast. 

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29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Are we still holding out hope that these D10+ pattern changes are going to verify? 

Can’t wait for our first d7 low topped convection thread. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Correct me if I am wrong here but this was/is my thinking regarding the change. 

1) When looking at the hard numbers or the forecast chart (such as below) you see a big drop coming...not only big but rather quickly

 

 

But when I see "change" I look at it two ways...

1) What is causing the change?

2) Is the structure of the "big picture" changing?

In assessing these two questions, what I gather is

1) There is some transient ridging which evolves and traverses the southern portion of the AO domain which leads to the big drop in AO which is further enhanced by the rather positive anomalies associated with the heights. 

2) The big picture is not changing which is why it is still not a good pattern. The structure of the AO and Arctic domain remains...the TPV still remains quite strong, however, the most negative height anomalies just push a bit towards the opposite side of the pole (hence the "drop in AO"). 

Look what happens after this drop...the AO spikes right back up as that transient ridging either weakens or pushes east of the AO domain. I would even bet that when this drop peaks it ends up being slightly higher than forecast. 

Ok, this is a bit different than your claim last week when you were going nuts on anyone who mentioned how the AO would be relaxing....which it clearly is. Does it necessarily mean snow? Of course not and we said that at the time...but it's less hostile than it was. It is still a somewhat ugly pattern, but it wouldn't surprise me if we get a snow event in the next 2 weeks.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I can see cold drizzle in November but spring and summer?  I’ll never fully understand that preference... 

I don't mind it as a break.  I wouldn't like it every day but as a break from heat and humidity, it's a relief.  

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Can’t wait for our first d7 low topped convection thread. 

Me either!!!! 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok, this is a bit different than your claim last week when you were going nuts on anyone who mentioned how the AO would be relaxing....which it clearly is. Does it necessarily mean snow? Of course not and we said that at the time...but it's less hostile than it was. It is still a somewhat ugly pattern, but it wouldn't surprise me if we get a snow event in the next 2 weeks.

One thing that can really help is the consensus for ridging to become established in the west. That should at least help in wanting to drive a trough in the east but the key will be where the trough axis occurs...we'll likely have to fight southeast ridging but at least northern New England should continue to see snow threats...whether we can get the entire region involved would depend on many details.

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1 hour ago, MetHerb said:

I wish I was off.  Should be another great sap run today as temps were in the teens this morning.  They've been running great the past few days.

Sat/Sun temps at my place were 37/-8 and 43/12 and it was low teens again this morning with full sun and light winds each day.  Tubing about to burst and 24-7 boiling?

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Been holding out hope for something good to show up in models and verify so definitely a frustrating winter. Going to Crotched Mt. tomorrow for a few days with the kid and it looks really borderline between some good snows on Thursday AM or some rain. 12z NAM looks like it stays mostly frozen in the Monadnock region. Fingers crossed that the one time this winter I really need the cold and snow, it happens. We'll see. After this week any good events will be welcome but will also be ready to move on. Currently at 37.5" on the season and about half of that fell by December 3.

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2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Wait untill he sees what a new 16 year old driver cost to insure in CT...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20200224-102124_Chrome.jpg

That's absolutely absurd...beyond highway robbery and just taking advantage of people. That's pushing $750 a month. This state is pure garbage.

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51° at 10:38 am on February 24th and it feels great. Took a great hike in the woods yesterday and no ticks were found, I know this can't last forever....It is great to have really cold mornings followed by warm afternoons, keeps the ticks at bay for the most part.

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12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

51° at 10:38 am on February 24th and it feels great. Took a great hike in the woods yesterday and no ticks were found, I know this can't last forever....It is great to have really cold mornings followed by warm afternoons, keeps the ticks at bay for the most part.

Yeah, I haven't seem ticks yet either. I've caught a few mosquitoes both inside and outside, though. But, I'm also bounded by wetlands on one side of my hill.

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33 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Sat/Sun temps at my place were 37/-8 and 43/12 and it was low teens again this morning with full sun and light winds each day.  Tubing about to burst and 24-7 boiling?

The lines were full to capacity and constantly flowing Saturday and Sunday with temps 44/20 and 51/20.  It was 19 this morning and it's in the 50s already.  I'll be boiling tonight and tomorrow night but only for a few hours.  I do the bulk of my boiling on weekends at first but starting next week I split my time between jobs - 4 days boiling and 3 days IT.

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19 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

51° at 10:38 am on February 24th and it feels great. Took a great hike in the woods yesterday and no ticks were found, I know this can't last forever....It is great to have really cold mornings followed by warm afternoons, keeps the ticks at bay for the most part.

If there are ticks in late Feb, we’d have a big problem. It’s bad enough as it is that I have to get my property sprayed every month from April to October to keep them at bay, to an extent. I despise those vampires.

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GFS is getting more precarious for here midweek. Just gotta get that sfc low under us...probably won’t be a problem. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

GFS is getting more precarious for here midweek. Just gotta get that sfc low under us...probably won’t be a problem. 

Close to a blue bomb special.

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On 2/21/2020 at 4:18 PM, Drop the Trough said:
The greatest chances for widespread precipitation will be late
Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper-level northern stream
phases with the southern one, amplifying the longwave trough. At this
time, precipitation type remains as rain/snow; although, trends in
the model guidance has been hinting at a warmer solution, thus
favoring rain. Gusty winds are another concern for Thursday with a
strong, easterly low-level jet as the surface low strengthens and
tracks northeastward. As the low departs eastward, cold air will
advance into the North Country, and accumulating snow is possible
for the end of the week.

on track.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

How many ways and times can you say: it was a shitty winter, it won't snow again, I am over it. Every day it's the same posts with no nuance.

would you like some cheese for that melt?  The weather is literally perfection and  there are people still unhappy, so you just can't help them

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

would you like some cheese for that melt?  The weather is literally perfection and  there are people still unhappy, so you just can't help them

Its cheese with whine, dumb ass

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