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February Discobs 2020

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@C.A.P.E.

When the 979 low pressure center tracks right over my yard tomorrow  morning ssw wind gusts are going to be crushing your yard per Euro ( low 60 mph gusts) . Enjoy!!:lol:

But dry as a bone now! EJ nailed it. :lol:

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If not for work I might have gone to central NC and visited my brother for a chase. Enhanced risk there.

I'm trying to remember the last time I got a real heavy rain event in dead of winter . Maybe after the 96 blizzard .

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm trying to remember the last time I got a real heavy rain event in dead of winter . Maybe after the 96 blizzard .

Had an incredibly anomalous rain event in Feb 2 years ago I think. Around 5" here with some flooding. Came after the Jan cold period with the bomb cyclone IIRC. Could have been the year before, as they both had early Jan cold and coastal plain snowstorms.

Had never seen anything like that in the winter months here. Hard to get the pwats for that kind of heavy rain that time of year,

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16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Western crew better get there shovels out of storage if the Nam is correct :weenie:

Looks like 8-10" for Canaan up toward Deep Creek on the Euro. Quite a thump.

Would be a nice chase in a winter where most of us cant buy a flake.

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21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Western crew better get there shovels out of storage if the Nam is correct :weenie:

Gives me 4 inches in a 3 hour period. That would be something.

  • Weenie 1

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31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Half inch here. Bust so far.

LOL Flood watch. 

Noticed around lunch time the heavy stuff was 95 and well east. Not even a half inch here. 

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Best 6 hr panel 

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200206_194358792_crop_1440x1199.jpg

Euro dumps 1/2" of qpf in 3 hrs tomorrow morning over north central Md. A good bit of that with 850s around 0 or just below . Surface temps range from 34 -38 in these areas . A bit warm but with rates u never know.  I can see Catoctins doing pretty well verbatim. 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Best 6 hr panel 

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200206_194358792_crop_1440x1199.jpg

Euro dumps 1/2" of qpf in 3 hrs tomorrow morning over north central Md. A good bit of that with 850s around 0 or just below . Surface temps range from 34 -38 in these areas . A bit warm but with rates u never know.  I can see Catoctins doing pretty well verbatim. 

I might have to drive the 3 miles to the top of route 77 to see whats going on tomorrow morning.My house is about 750 ft in elevation. Top of 77 is around 1200 ft.

Theres been times over the years ive left thurmont and its raining,  coming over the catoctins theres several inches then back to rain when I get into Smithsburg. 

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Some folks are thinking about snow showers in northern MD tomorrow, and that is on the table, but I'm more interested in the "warm sector"  along the I-95 corridor tomorrow morning ahead of the occluded front.   A lot of guidance briefly puts this area into the low-mid 50's, and there should be a band of convection along the front.    Some of the CAMs develop a little bit of instability, and it's really cold aloft with decent lapse rates, so while I'm not ready to call for thunder, I'm wondering if some places might get a burst of graupel or small hail. 

Unknown-1.png

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
930 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

DCZ001-MDZ003-011-013-014-016>018-503-504-506-VAZ052>055-057-505-
506-WVZ051>053-071030-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.200207T1400Z-200207T2000Z/
District of Columbia-Washington-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-
Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Baltimore, Bowie,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel,
Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf,
Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown,
Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge,
Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville,
Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Purcellville, Leesburg,
Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town,
and Shepherdstown
930 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north
  central, northern and southern Maryland, central and northern
  Virginia and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 3 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
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7 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Barometer at 29.03" and crashing here this morning.  Been quite a while since I have seen a reading that low.

Yeah we should drop below 29" of mercury briefly. 29.05" at IAD currently.

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We do wind pretty well. Along with heat ofc.

Rain total here (so far) is 1.05"

Was a nice moderate soaker, but hardly worthy of a flood watch. Lower shore and S DE did get some heavier rains.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0556 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020

   Areas affected...northern VA...District of Columbia...central MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071156Z - 071300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible
   with a narrow, low-topped convective band rapidly moving across
   northern VA and the greater D.C. area during the 12z-1330z period.

   DISCUSSION...KLWX radar imagery shows an intensifying band of
   low-topped convection with a few lightning flashes with the deeper
   convection exhibiting 20kft echo tops.  Surface analysis shows a
   surface low immediately northwest of D.C. developing to the
   east-northeast.  A narrow plume of weakly buoyant air, with surface
   temperatures in the upper 50s and dewpoints in the upper 50s, is
   located downstream of the convective band over northern/eastern VA
   into MD.  Objective analysis indicates around 250 J/kg SBCAPE with
   40 kt effective shear.  Given the strong, deep forcing for ascent
   co-located with weak instability, it is possible a few strong to
   locally severe gusts may accompany the bowing portions of the
   convective band.  The damaging-gust threat appears too confined in
   space/time to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 02/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39047766 39257701 39187648 38647665 38297716 37927819
               39047766 

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