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Thundersnow12

February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential

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A little concerned about radar returns in Indiana.  Anyone else downstream in Southern MI/NW Ohio concerned?   

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According to the 18Z GFS, this thing is just getting started with more coming later tomorrow??  Some of the local offices hinting at this actually happening, but has the GFS now confirmed it??

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Lake enhancement into the NE. Illinois already...Cook/DuPage/Will Co's.

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Only about 1.3" here. Down to just flurries for now. Hoping the radar fills in again downstream. 

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Quite a lot of sleet on the ground here. Kinda depressing tbh. Main snow bands missed to the north by 20 miles or so, best FZRA is to my south. Got the cursed end of warm tongue. :bag:

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10 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Quite a lot of sleet on the ground here. Kinda depressing tbh. Main snow bands missed to the north by 20 miles or so, best FZRA is to my south. Got the cursed end of warm tongue. :bag:

There hasn't been any winter weather at all along and south of I-70 since December 17th.  Consider yourself lucky to be getting sleet.

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0z HRRR is about as good as it gets on this side of the lake, for lake effect snow duration/quality.

Obviously a bit of synoptic snow in the totals below, but most of it is LES. Also, LES is still ongoing, with a re-newed push incoming at the end of the run.

36

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z HRRR is about as good as it gets on this side of the lake, for lake effect snow duration/quality.

Obviously a bit of synoptic snow in the totals below, but most of it is LES. Also, LES is still ongoing, with a re-newed push incoming at the end of the run.

36

Sweet setup for those that get lucky. Now if that purple moved about 30 miles NW I’d be happy but with this winter I would just be happy to get a fresh coat of white. 

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23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z HRRR is about as good as it gets on this side of the lake, for lake effect snow duration/quality.

Obviously a bit of synoptic snow in the totals below, but most of it is LES. Also, LES is still ongoing, with a re-newed push incoming at the end of the run.

36

if only....

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1 minute ago, Maneee said:

Do you think that’ll be another big bust? 

I'm probably the last guy to ask. But trusting a short term model that suddenly pulled that type of swing on a lake event is far from certain, I'm hoping to get 2-3" out of this whole event. 

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Latest NAM 3km and HRRR are interesting with that secondary low. Both have shifted further north and now HRRR has ~7" for the GTA by Friday afternoon. 

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First snow of the event finally started about an hour ago. Actually started as sleet, but since changed to snow.

Solid dusting so far.

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29 minutes ago, Maneee said:

Do you think that’ll be another big bust? 

LES on this side of the lake is like a Xmas gift from your ex wife. I wouldn't count on it but a nice surprise.

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ARW/NMM/NSSL are all onboard with good LES somewhere in the area as well.

ARW below...
51c16d2e5b63ff8fea9fba7311c691e0.jpg


.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ARW/NMM/NSSL are all onboard with good LES somewhere in the area as well.

ARW below...
51c16d2e5b63ff8fea9fba7311c691e0.jpg


.

Damn, that cut off is sharp. 9.1 to 0.9 in 20 miles (as the crow flies). Someone along the lake is going to get an extra dollop I bet.

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