• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
Thundersnow12

February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential

Recommended Posts

Enough agreement for something in the time frame as others have mentioned. GEFS don't look bad at this range and some areas can still do well even with a more strung out look with good WAA into and over a tight baroclinic zone.

Last night's 0z GFS was probably close to best case for someone. 

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_180.png.03fd155ba9c889edf2a1f8ecea8ded4a.png

1818825787_eurolows1.thumb.png.77ac5f1c41472a38428326bf0f713ffc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

You both already called rainer so you're locked into those. Already back pedaling 

knew i'd get you with that one

final calls always come at D5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody.  On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian.

Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Wouldn't shock this guy if we finally get a pattern shift, and things start running SE of us..

The pattern isn't really shifting to anything too different. We are basically reverting back to the pattern we had about 2 weeks ago.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody.  On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian.

Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here.  

That's something Alek would say, not Hoosier. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That's something Alek would say, not Hoosier. 

Why bet against it.  The all snow events here have pretty much been inch or less stuff, and the upcoming pattern does not look suppressed as there is pretty strong southeast ridging during this storm's timeframe.  I dare mother nature to make it an all snow event.  :D

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Why bet against it.  The all snow events here have pretty much been inch or less stuff, and the upcoming pattern does not look suppressed as there is pretty strong southeast ridging during this storm's timeframe.  I dare mother nature to make it an all snow event.  :D

Fair point. But there are things that may work in your favor. The transitioning NAO and PNA may help to suppress the developing SE ridge somewhat. 

February has been our best month in recent years lol. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Fair point. But there are things that may work in your favor. The transitioning NAO and PNA may help to suppress the developing SE ridge somewhat. 

February has been our best month in recent years lol. 

The PNA going from + to - is more supportive of a SE ridge, not the other way around.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro with a more strung out look but still decent for some. 

4-6" swath with initial slug of precip on Tuesday across IA/IL (Chi metro included)

Secondary defo area tries to get going with main system later Wednesday and leads to highest totals in SW MI of 8-12" 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

The PNA going from + to - is more supportive of a SE ridge, not the other way around.

Thanks for the correction! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Thanks for the correction! :)

To be fair, slight Southeast ridge may help keep continuously pumping winter systems into the Ohio Valley and lakes. Honestly not a bad look for us.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro with a more strung out look but still decent for some. 

4-6" swath with initial slug of precip on Tuesday across IA/IL (Chi metro included)

Secondary defo area tries to get going with main system later Wednesday and leads to highest totals in SW MI of 8-12" 

wouldn't say i'm optimistic but i don't hate where we sit

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody.  On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian.

Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here.  

2-part scenario is how we roll this winter. The key question is whether we can get the 2nd wave of energy to coincide with proper cold air feed and pull it south into a strengthening SLP.  Jan 11-12 was an utter FAIL in getting the cold far enough south (regardless of moisture stealing to our south)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The pattern isn't really shifting to anything too different. We are basically reverting back to the pattern we had about 2 weeks ago.

Ofc nothing but cyber-wx is/has shifted at this point. I'll acknowledge a legit shift when a SLP tracks S/SE of mby and (as Hoosier said) produces a non-mix contaminated event around here. Two weeks ago didn't do that. My orig post was looking beyond just next week to the potential the cold finally presses to an EC storm track. Hopefully that does not happen, or at least delays enough to deliver some good systems for our Sub before it does. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would really hate to see this one go north for me. I wish there was a way we could all get in on a decent storm...

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Good news for this event: Pivotal added the UKMET

Bad news, it only goes out to h144. Won't be an addition to the d6+ models unfortunately. We need something in that longer range to counter the "G" squad of models and their unstable ways

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Oh look, the GFS shifted north.

Sticking with it's single amped wave and north game plan. Let's see if it's a legit trend. Nothing in this garbage bag winter could surprise me less

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Sticking with it's single amped wave and north game plan. Let's see if it's a legit trend. Nothing in this garbage bag winter could surprise me less

Too far out to be living and dying 2with each model run. 6z was better. Who knows what 12z will be. Seems like a clipperless winter with a handful of good snowstorms. Hopefully this is one of the storms lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Too far out to be living and dying 2with each model run. 6z was better. Who knows what 12z will be. Seems like a clipperless winter with a handful of good snowstorms. Hopefully this is one of the storms lol

Yep. At this point I remain happy that there is some run to run consistency of a storm. 

In the old days, we would be approaching the "storm disappear" cycle. Back when the models were only moderate garbage. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.