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ORH_wxman

Feb 1-2 storm threat

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43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This shouldn’t really surprise anyone.  Everything has had massive NW or N shifts all winter.  The storm last weekend shifted 250 miles in the last 72 hours 

 

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Happens with the majority of Miller A storms.

And the old playbook of the GFS showing a good storm track in the LR, only to lose it, then it comes back in the short term.  We’ve seen this movie yet we didn’t not know how this one ends.

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Just now, Dr. Dews said:

The flow is fast but I'd wager this deal would be well OTS in a -nao with the pac like itnis

This is why it’s pointless to cling to any one or couple elements of a setup, in any setup. Gotta take in the big picture and experience. 

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2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

 

And the old playbook of the GFS showing a good storm track in the LR, only to lose it, then it comes back in the short term.  We’ve seen this movie yet we didn’t not know how this one ends.

You can just about guarantee every storm of this type will shift NW from day 4-5.  it’s just a question how much  

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There was a bunch of lows this year that looked really amped in the medium range but ended up southeast and weak closer to verification because of the fast flow a few weeks back. So I'm just failing to see these big N/NW trend this year. This doesn't mean that this storm can't still be hit the northeast of course. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Okay then why did you come to the very specific conclusion that you came to? 

Because he mentioned big N/NW trends all year, which I'm sorry I just haven't seen. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Because he mentioned big N/NW trends all year, which I'm sorry I just haven't seen. 

Anything which has impacted our region has come NW.  I definitely would agree some systems that ultimately were nothing or slid well OTS didn’t follow this trend but everything that dropped QPF between DCA-BOS has pretty much come NW late 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There was a bunch of lows this year that looked really amped in the medium range but ended up southeast and weak closer to verification because of the fast flow a few weeks back. So I'm just failing to see these big N/NW trend this year. This doesn't mean that this storm can't still be hit the northeast of course. 

there are a couple that went from huggers to cutters. Last weekend fits the description

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Just now, cleetussnow said:

there a couple that went from huggers to cutters. Last weekend fits the description

Yes, last weekend north because of the reduction of blocking in ne canada like I said. Not the same thing as the situation we have here. 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yes, last weekend north because of the reduction of blocking in ne canada like I said. Not the same thing as the situation we have here. 

Well, maybe the trend you mention...the lead vort that’s playing monkey wrench with this one...if that gets weaker as we get closer, which it appears too, does that follow your observation?  I’m not sure myself

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I'm no expert on this NW tick models can take sometimes but it appears it is all situational rather than an assumption.  There are numerous upstream influences that can cause those.  Feel free to add onto this; this isn't something I analyze as closely like some do on this board.  It's something I am cognizant of but never really put assumption into it materializing.

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2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Well, maybe the trend you mention...the lead vort that’s playing monkey wrench with this one...if that gets weaker as we get closer, which it appears too, does that follow your observation?  I’m not sure myself

I don't think its the same thing, but different storms can hit or miss for many different reasons. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You can just about guarantee every storm of this type will shift NW from day 4-5.  it’s just a question how much  

And then do the “Messenger East Shuffle” (RIP) within the last 36 hours...

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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Because he mentioned big N/NW trends all year, which I'm sorry I just haven't seen. 

I had the opposite opinion, I feel like everything goes east at the end and isn’t as amped up as expected.  But that’s from someone way NW who pays attention to that.  

Even the last system slid east at the last moment and kept the mountains here snow when they were going to rain.

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53 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Snow to rain warm frontal passages don't really excite me that much lol. I like NS for this one. 

I would take 8 inches of high windswept snow to drizzle to flash freeze with high winds in a heartbeat.  Spoiled child

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24 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I'm no expert on this NW tick models can take sometimes but it appears it is all situational rather than an assumption.  There are numerous upstream influences that can cause those.  Feel free to add onto this; this isn't something I analyze as closely like some do on this board.  It's something I am cognizant of but never really put assumption into it materializing.

It’s always trends northwest 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would take 8 inches of high windswept snow to drizzle to flash freeze with high winds in a heartbeat.  Spoiled child

If it's 8" yeah. But I could easily see this as much less if plows into YHZ. 

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We’ve had both NW trends and SE trends and basically no trends this winter. 

The 12/17-18 and 12/28 SWFEs were pretty damned amped in the medium range and they trended colder into SWFEs. Both did tick NW really late in the game though. 

12/1-3 never really came NW. It was pretty steady as an SNE/CNE special the whole time inside of 4-5 days aside from a wobble here and there.

1/6-7 didn’t come NW when we needed it...it was a big hit in medium range and then trended southeast into a cranberry bog advisory event and teased everyone the final 48 hours basically not budging during that time. 

1/18 I feel like literally didn’t move for like 5 straight days. It was an advisory SWFE pretty much the entire time for almost the whole forum and never changed much. 

1/25 trended 500 miles northwest inside of 84 hours...

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve had both NW trends and SE trends and basically no trends this winter. 

The 12/17-18 and 12/28 SWFEs were pretty damned amped in the medium range and they trended colder into SWFEs. Both did tick NW really late in the game though. 

12/1-3 never really came NW. It was pretty steady as an SNE/CNE special the whole time inside of 4-5 days aside from a wobble here and there.

1/6-7 didn’t come NW when we needed it...it was a big hit in medium range and then trended southeast into a cranberry bog advisory event and teased everyone the final 48 hours basically not budging during that time. 

1/18 I feel like literally didn’t move for like 5 straight days. It was an advisory SWFE pretty much the entire time for almost the whole forum and never changed much. 

1/25 trended 500 miles northwest inside of 84 hours...

Yeah so basically you're illustrating what I'm trying to get at which is it can't be assumed storms tick NW.  It appears upstream dynamics are the driving factor in any NW trend we see unless I am missing something.  Some events even went southeast, while some didn't move at all.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would take 8 inches of high windswept snow to drizzle to flash freeze with high winds in a heartbeat.  Spoiled child

I’m fine with even 1/2 that.

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38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s always trends northwest 

Well yeah, tenor of the winter etc but maybe not this time?  I’m still optimistic that we all snow a bit. 

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Best thing going for this is that it does have a very well-placed trough that is fairly deep. Most of the time that spot will produce for us. On a very basic scale, we have a good synoptic pattern. 

Theres obviously details that are currently preventing all systems go, but at least it doesn’t feel like we need large scale shifts in the trough position or anything like that. Airmass is marginal too but it’s likely cold enough if any meaningful precip gets in here. 

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well yeah, tenor of the winter etc but maybe not this time?  I’m still optimistic that we all snow a bit. 

We/us out west will not plow, that’s a lock. Cancelling my hat order...

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Best thing going for this is that it does have a very well-placed trough that is fairly deep. Most of the time that spot will produce for us. On a very basic scale, we have a good synoptic pattern. 

Theres obviously details that are currently preventing all systems go, but at least it doesn’t feel like we need large scale shifts in the trough position or anything like that. Airmass is marginal too but it’s likely cold enough if any meaningful precip gets in here. 

I think that is what's diminishing a coastal hit though I posted earlier how the depth of that trough is actually resulting in that OTS track.  If that trough weren't to dig so far south then a coastal hit would be increased unless you are referring to the nrn stream trough then disregard everything I said.  The silver lining of this would be the trough digs into Mexico is not as deep as modeled. I've seen situations where models don't always handle Mexican disturbances well due to lack of data points down there.

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I just don't buy it. Plus I told the multi million dollar company I give forecasts to that a storm is unlikely this weekend.

 

Does that get me a pro forecaster tag? 

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