Rtd208

February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, Animal said:

My younger nephew reported near 20 inches at the Northwood school in lake placid with the recent storm 

I've been there, had friends that were students 35-40 years ago. Is it still populated by mostly rich fk up kids that smoke an inordinate amount of really good weed?

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NYC is currently in 7th place for warmest winter through February 8th at 39.2 degrees. A final average temperature of 38.4 or warmer qualifies for the DJF top 10.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 8
Missing Count
1 2016-02-08 42.7 0
2 2002-02-08 41.5 0
- 1932-02-08 41.5 0
4 2012-02-08 40.4 0
5 1991-02-08 39.7 0
6 1950-02-08 39.4 0
7 2020-02-08 39.2 0
8 1933-02-08 39.1 0
9 1998-02-08 39.0 0
10 1999-02-08 38.9 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2001-2002 41.5 0
2 2015-2016 41.0 0
3 2011-2012 40.5 0
4 1931-1932 40.1 0
5 1997-1998 39.6 0
6 2016-2017 39.3 0
7 1990-1991 39.1 0
8 1998-1999 38.6 0
9 1948-1949 38.5 0
10 1889-1890 38.4 0
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36 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I've been there, had friends that were students 35-40 years ago. Is it still populated by mostly rich fk up kids that smoke an inordinate amount of really good weed?

He plays ice hockey. Don’t think it is the same as what you reported other than $

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so far the coldest temperature this month in NYC is 30 I think...the record for the highest monthly min for Feb is 22 set in 1927...I think that record could fall this year...

year   Feb min...

1927.....22

2012.....20

2002.....19

2000.....19

1997.....19

2017.....19

1982.....19

1964.....19

1897.....19

1960.....18

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27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's preliminary value for the Arctic Oscillation is +5.180. That would surpass the daily record of +5.147, which was set in 1990.

Looks like this is currently the 10th highest reading. 
 

 

48653827-53A3-49CE-89F4-017EE206D137.gif.1eba28ab346d40ceb59443407c055891.gif

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33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's preliminary value for the Arctic Oscillation is +5.180. That would surpass the daily record of +5.147, which was set in 1990.

 

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like this is currently the 10th highest reading. 
 

 

48653827-53A3-49CE-89F4-017EE206D137.gif.1eba28ab346d40ceb59443407c055891.gif

 

 

 

And interestingly, it is not so much an expansive spatial coverage of low geopotential heights, as one might expect with a classical strongly +AO. The absurdly high value is a function of the incredible pressure gradient / geopotential heigh differential between the North Atlantic and Azores region. The magnitude of the cyclone near Greenland in concert with the anomalous subtropical ridging near Azores is mediating this incredible AO spike.

I have not, hitherto, seen such a gradient across the N ATL domain:

image.thumb.png.b499abdc1794f95fab19cdc557f384e9.png

 

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 I will continue to track but it doesnt look good. NAO, AO and EPO does not want to go favorable at all for the foreseeable future.  It's amazing how stubborn this pattern is.

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16 hours ago, Animal said:

Walt... nice call. Hopefully it occurs.

mt holly issued an alert for snow tomorrow night higher terrain 

Didn't snow much s half Sussex and all Warren Counties but nice coverings ne PA and up here... still snowing lightly here at 934A.  I like the odds for tonight...one thing thats happened. colder has been trapped, so far... in nw NJ...seldom is it colder here than MPO...but at my house in Wantage  22F we 740'MSL and MPO around 2000').   NAM didn't do so hot for this morning in en PA/nw NJ.  Monitoring for further development south of 12z/9 NAM.  One day at a time in the pattern.

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11 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

 

And interestingly, it is not so much an expansive spatial coverage of low geopotential heights, as one might expect with a classical strongly +AO. The absurdly high value is a function of the incredible pressure gradient / geopotential heigh differential between the North Atlantic and Azores region. The magnitude of the cyclone near Greenland in concert with the anomalous subtropical ridging near Azores is mediating this incredible AO spike.

I have not, hitherto, seen such a gradient across the N ATL domain:

 

 

These are some of the fastest jet stream winds that we have seen over the North Atlantic.

 

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1 hour ago, North and West said:

6380b9a06d994960d912ead9c5f2d3ff.jpg

This is like when we were kids here (in the 1980s and early 1990s)... warm when there's moisture; when it's freezing cold, it's dry.


.

 It was nothing like this 

 

It is much, much warmer now.

 

Emphasis on much.

 

I see 2 days with normal temps in the next 15 days. 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 I will continue to track but it doesnt look good. NAO, AO and EPO does not want to go favorable at all for the foreseeable future.  It's amazing how stubborn this pattern is.

At least it's helping the Arctic this season. Maybe that'll help us out in the future.

This year however looks toast and I'm 100% ready for warm spring-like weather. 

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10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

 It was nothing like this 

 

It is much, much warmer now.

 

Emphasis on much.

 

I see 2 days with normal temps in the next 15 days. 

 

 

I believe he meant that timing of events. It most definitely is warmer than it had been in the 1980s. 

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe he meant that timing of events. It most definitely is warmer than it had been in the 1980s. 

Yes, but I feel we are getting a little lackadaisical on the fact that what is going on here. Nothing like this has occurred in this area since modern record keeping began in the late 1800s

 

I think that is important to emphasize.

 

While there was nothing inherently wrong with the original post, It gives fuel to some posters that try to brush all this off as a statistical anomaly...which it clearly isnt

 

 

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4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Yes, but I feel we are getting a little lackadaisical on the fact that what is going on here. Nothing like this has occurred in this area since modern record keeping began in the late 1800s

 

I think that is important to emphasize.

 

While there was nothing inherently wrong with the original post, It gives fuel to some posters that try to brush all this off as a statistical anomaly...which it clearly isnt

 

 

I agree with the emphasis on the nature of the rapid warming that has been taking place and continues to occur. That development needs to be considered in seasonal forecasting, etc.

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The 80's had some incredible cold shots.  Alot of cold with bare ground back then as it was hard to get anything to line up with a storm (+NAO/AO pattern then)  We've seen none of that the past 2 years.  I did tell my kids the same thing this AM when they asked why it hasn't snowed much...I said, "welcome to my childhood"!  

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2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

 It was nothing like this 

 

It is much, much warmer now.

 

Emphasis on much.

 

I see 2 days with normal temps in the next 15 days. 

 

 

There are hordes of tiny flies buzzing around my front yard.....this was inconceivable at this time of the year when I was a child.

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I wasn’t alive in the 80’s, but it sounded awful. I only have a clear memory of 2009 onwards (weather-wise), that was right around the time our snowfall amounts went haywire. My normal is abnormal.

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Yes sir

 Nice spot. Took the family up there last year and it snowed the morning we arrived. Beautiful scenery. They do a terrific job with events, food is excellent, entertainment is top notch. Enjoy.

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1 minute ago, Cfa said:

I wasn’t alive in the 80’s, but it sounded awful. Weather-wise, I only have a clear memory of 2009 onwards, that was right around the time our snowfall amounts started going haywire. My normal is abnormal.

how young are you 13?

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2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

how young are you 13?

Lol I’m twice that. I meant anything weather-related prior to 2009 is a bit hazy, unless it was very major.

I remember a blizzard in 2006, NYC schools closing for the first time (in my memory), but anything between that and the summer of 2009 is a blur.

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21 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I wasn’t alive in the 80’s, but it sounded awful. I only have a clear memory of 2009 onwards (weather-wise), that was right around the time our snowfall amounts went haywire. My normal is abnormal.

Weather was quiet and boring. Not alot of heat.  Cold and dry winters. 2 or 3 memorable snowstorms not much severe. Hurricane Gloria in 85. That's it that's the decade in a nutshell

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47 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Lol I’m twice that. I meant anything weather-related prior to 2009 is a bit hazy, unless it was very major.

I remember a blizzard in 2006, NYC schools closing for the first time (in my memory), but anything between that and the summer of 2009 is a blur.

Are you talking about Feb 12 2006 ? If so then the storm occured on a Saturday. 

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3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Weather was quiet and boring. Not alot of heat.  Cold and dry winters. 2 or 3 memorable snowstorms not much severe. Hurricane Gloria in 85. That's it that's the decade in a nutshell

And then the winter of 94 sailed in and people were like WTF? NYC doesn't get this cold, it doesn't snow this much.....make it stop! We were almost back to normal in 95 ( no snow, mild temps ) until Feb delivered a nice event. Then in 96 people were again aghast, 1-2 feet? Are they serious? I remember hitting the local Pathmark the day before, and it was like the zombie apocalypse was coming. And yet, none of us believed it would be that much snow, keep in mind a foot was considered gigantic....

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are you talking about Feb 12 2006 ? If so then the storm occured on a Saturday. 

There was one in 2005 as well, though not as big, perhaps that's the one....

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Temperatures rebounded into the lower and middle 40s across the region today. Prior to that, some areas in northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, and southeastern Pennsylvania received a light snowfall.

Milder conditions will likely continue through mid-week. Afterward, a short-lived push of cold air could occur during the second half of the coming week into the weekend. Unlike with the prior Friday-Saturday cold shot, modified Arctic air will be involved, so minimum temperatures could fall into the upper teens in New York City and lower teens and perhaps single digits outside the City during the height of the cold.

Afterward, warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal overall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first two weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +3.03 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That figure would surpass the +5.147 value reached on February 9, 1990 for the daily record. It is also the highest value since March 8, 2015 when the AO was +5.588.

Near or just after mid-month, the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. There remains some uncertainty concerning its amplitude and duration in Phase 6. Its amplitude and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February.

During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 16, but the upper stratosphere could warm toward mid-February. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February.

On February 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.625 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.584.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 56% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

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