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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I scan them all, but usually ostensibly focus on the EURO in my blog visuals...for the sake of brevity.

Otherwise Easternmassweather would be Typhoontipweather.

I just stick with NAM, GFS, and Euro...otherwise it just gets too complex and confusing. 

Anyways in the case of this upcoming weekend's event I'm just really focusing on how the models are handling the potential evolution of the pattern. With all these shortwaves, shortwave troughs, and pieces of energy involved we're going to get a million different sfc projections between now and the end of the week and they're all really meaningless anyways...unless of course we start getting a better handle on just what s/w or two will be the main focus. 

Given this seems largely phase dependent we could see the next 10 solutions show all snow, rain, fish storm, cutter...wouldn't really matter 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I just stick with NAM, GFS, and Euro...otherwise it just gets too complex and confusing. 

Anyways in the case of this upcoming weekend's event I'm just really focusing on how the models are handling the potential evolution of the pattern. With all these shortwaves, shortwave troughs, and pieces of energy involved we're going to get a million different sfc projections between now and the end of the week and they're all really meaningless anyways...unless of course we start getting a better handle on just what s/w or two will be the main focus. 

Given this seems largely phase dependent we could see the next 10 solutions show all snow, rain, fish storm, cutter...wouldn't really matter 

You don't use the number 2 best model the UK? Wow that's not good

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just stick with NAM, GFS, and Euro...otherwise it just gets too complex and confusing. 

Anyways in the case of this upcoming weekend's event I'm just really focusing on how the models are handling the potential evolution of the pattern. With all these shortwaves, shortwave troughs, and pieces of energy involved we're going to get a million different sfc projections between now and the end of the week and they're all really meaningless anyways...unless of course we start getting a better handle on just what s/w or two will be the main focus. 

Given this seems largely phase dependent we could see the next 10 solutions show all snow, rain, fish storm, cutter...wouldn't really matter 

I feel like we are either going big with the polar energy joining the fray, complete with precip type issues, or we aren't, and it will miss.

I don't like the odds of the s stream getting it done on its own.

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just stick with NAM, GFS, and Euro...otherwise it just gets too complex and confusing. 

Anyways in the case of this upcoming weekend's event I'm just really focusing on how the models are handling the potential evolution of the pattern. With all these shortwaves, shortwave troughs, and pieces of energy involved we're going to get a million different sfc projections between now and the end of the week and they're all really meaningless anyways...unless of course we start getting a better handle on just what s/w or two will be the main focus. 

Given this seems largely phase dependent we could see the next 10 solutions show all snow, rain, fish storm, cutter...wouldn't really matter 

Toss nam and gfs, to an extent, and use the UK especially now that it’s on Pivotal.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

You don't use the number 2 best model the UK? Wow that's not good

not really...just not enough time. I like to spend a ton of time looking at each model and do the best I can to understand what's going on within each and then run through a list of questions in my head. 

I don't bother to just glance b/c that does nothing too me...it's super easy to just look at one product of a model (like SLP and QPF) but you're not really answering any questions. If I can't devote a certain amount of time to analyzing then to me its not really worth it. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Toss nam and gfs to an extent and use the UK especially now that it’s on Pivotal.

This is awesome!!

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Hanging hats on single model solutions never makes sense especially this far out, unless it is part of a clear trend, consensus.  I look for Mets here who can give me a larger analysis of H5 evolution in conjunction with teles forecasts.  Zooming out makes more sense at this stage. The windshield wiper effect of models this far out should be expected. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like we are either going big with the polar energy joining the fray, complete with precip type issues, or we aren't, and it will miss.

I don't like the odds of the s stream getting it done on its own.

I completely agree.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

not really...just not enough time. I like to spend a ton of time looking at each model and do the best I can to understand what's going on within each and then run through a list of questions in my head. 

I don't bother to just glance b/c that does nothing too me...it's super easy to just look at one product of a model (like SLP and QPF) but you're not really answering any questions. If I can't devote a certain amount of time to analyzing then to me its not really worth it. 

If the model isn't right synoptically speaking then doing detailed analysis on it is not going to be fruitful. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

not really...just not enough time. I like to spend a ton of time looking at each model and do the best I can to understand what's going on within each and then run through a list of questions in my head. 

I don't bother to just glance b/c that does nothing too me...it's super easy to just look at one product of a model (like SLP and QPF) but you're not really answering any questions. If I can't devote a certain amount of time to analyzing then to me its not really worth it. 

Yea, you will seldom see me post UK images, but I always incorporate it into the forecast.

I will usually post GEPS, GEFS and EPS visuals at this time frame, but for First and Final Call I will stick with EURO visuals and incorporate other guidance into the narrative.

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Pivotalwx has really made it nice for doing more detailed analysis on the best verifying models out there. You aren't as hamstrung using worse models because of amount of detail available with them (Nam and gfs, for example). 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

If the model isn't right synoptically speaking then doing detailed analysis on it is not going to be fruitful. 

that's one of the questions I try and ask myself...does what is being presented make sense :) 

but sometimes I don't get very far as I still struggle with a stronger understanding 

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6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Hanging hats on single model solutions never makes sense especially this far out, unless it is part of a clear trend, consensus.  I look for Mets here who can give me a larger analysis of H5 evolution in conjunction with teles forecasts.  Zooming out makes more sense at this stage. The windshield wiper effect of models this far out should be expected. 

I couldn't agree with the statement more. Yesterday all the models trended to out to see. My gut feeling is that they would still bring the song Back Northwest. The question now is how far back and where were the location B. That's something that will get a better handle on by the middle of the week

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Pivotalwx has really made it nice for doing more detailed analysis on the best verifying models out there. You aren't as hamstrung using worse models because of amount of detail available with them (Nam and gfs, for example). 

I know they've made some incredible strides into their layout and structure...just did some browsing around and the site has really become much more user friendly and it looks like navigation between products/models is rather simple too.

That's another factor into the whole wide options of models available...if you have to spend a ton of time navigating or exploring to find products...it gets annoying and too time consuming.

But Pivotal looks like it really makes it easier to do all of this.

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I like the overall look a 114 hours on the GFS...the southern stream is in the mix but not bonkers and you have the potent N stream diving in to set it off. Regardless of what happens on the run verbatim, that's the overall look you want to see. Happens on several of our biggies including Feb 2013.

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not horrible,  GFS looks like it fringes eastern areas.  The trough is too positively tilted for a solid turn up the coast, and northern stream interaction is muted. At least its not a total whiff. 

 

just to add, i don't think it would take much to get more said interaction

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the overall look a 114 hours on the GFS...the southern stream is in the mix but not bonkers and you have the potent N stream diving in to set it off. Regardless of what happens on the run verbatim, that's the overall look you want to see. Happens on several of our biggies including Feb 2013.

Definitely don't want to bullseye 5-6 days out, keep everything nearby. Let the ensembles show some hits and hopefully we are good. It would be nice to see the Euro Op show something closer soon rather than later though....

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Definitely don't want to bullseye 5-6 days out, keep everything nearby. Let the ensembles show some hits and hopefully we are good. It would be nice to see the Euro Op show something closer soon rather than later though....

Why? I'd rather see it wait and be right.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Why?

Just an observation over the years of watching the Euro, more often than not it doesn't just jump in the last minute with a storm like this....baby steps yes, but nothing like what the GFS does. Doesn't mean the Euro wont bounce NW hundreds of miles inside of day 3....Just saying it would be nice to have the Euro show something close by within day 5

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like we are either going big with the polar energy joining the fray, complete with precip type issues, or we aren't, and it will miss.

I don't like the odds of the s stream getting it done on its own.

You don’t want the latter scenario anyway because that would likely be the warmest even in the case of a track offshore.  The ICON basically shows that.  Mostly southern stream but you just can’t get the cold air in without the NS involvement to an extent   

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You don’t want the latter scenario anyway because that would likely be the warmest even in the case of a track offshore.  The ICON basically shows that.  Mostly southern stream but you just can’t get the cold air in without the NS involvement to an extent   

Yea, I don't think that will happen...its either going to involve the n stream, or whiff.

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The difference between that solution and White Juan sne style is noise at this range.

It may be ...and I realize this post of yours I am responding to is now passe/9 hours ago or whatever... but this bevy missy solutions coming out fits my contentions earlier yesterday regarding the flow speeding up again in the models.  

They may be too quick in doing so... and things get more velocity saturated later on and/or else less so over all, but these missed phases and bottle rocked southern stream scenarios are because the flow is too fast for interacting wave mechanics to do so in time to clip the eastern Seaboard.  I could buy it up in the Maritimes "if" the model tenor to increase speed by this weekend is both real and needs factoring.  

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